Falcons @ Yellow Jackets AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Free Pick

Air Force Falcons @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Free Pick: The Yellow Jackets are always tough to predict because they are so up and down. Every season it seems like they’ll play a very good team tough and suck up the crud against a few mediocre teams. I guess that’s kind of how they got to 6-6 this season. They played pretty well against Georgia, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina – but they lost to Kansas, barely beat Duke, lost to Miami by 25 points, and NC State beat them by 17. Sometimes it just doesn’t make any sense.

The Falcons have been a little more predictable, struggling with the very good/great teams they’ve played (only 4 losses came against Oklahoma by 3, San Diego State by 2, Utah by 5, and TCU by 31) and beating everyone else. This Air Force team is a good football team – and yes, don’t be confused, San Diego State is a very good football team. Most of Air Force’s losses look pretty good – I wouldn’t be ashamed with a single one.

But all this talk only means a little bit. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets live and die with their heart and soul quarterback, Joshua Nesbitt. The tough-nosed run-first quarterback can be a beast to tackle, and he always makes huge plays for his Yellow Jackets. Nesbitt is doubtful for this weekend’s game and with that doubt comes my doubt in them to stay close. These are two running teams going at it, and it should be a good battle. The Air Force Falcons have only been out-rushed by TCU and Colorado State while the Yellow Jackets haven’t been out-rushed once in their last 10 games.

It’s tough, but I just don’t see any reason the Falcons wouldn’t be a nice value bet with Nesbitt out and the fact that they’re the better team anyway.

Air Force Falcons (-2.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets