Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins NFL Week 13 Free Picks

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins NFL Week 13 Free Picks: I have preached it a million times (probably closer to 35), more often than not you will get great value picking against a team that should have lost last week and walked away with a win. There are lots of ways to judge that. You could watch a game and see every bounce go one team’s way – all the 50/50 egg-shaped-ball bounces that aren’t anybody’s fault – and they end up winning by a field goal. But I don’t take that into account too much, sometimes, yes, but more often it’s about what happens at the end of a game. Like Nevada should have lost to Boise State last week. If you’re a college fan, you saw Boise kick a game winning field goal wide to end the game and send it into an overtime where their kicker missed another one and they lost. That is a good example. Boise should have won.

Cleveland should have lost last week… To the Panthers… Gross. The Browns have been playing pretty quality football this year despite their 4-7 record. But for some odd reason they stop tackling in the 4th quarter, and the Jimmy Clausen led Panthers had a solid 47 yarder (I think it was 47 but not sure) to win the game. John Kasay missed it, the Browns got the win. But they should have lost. You get me?

Miami got back to basics last week, running the football again and again and again. Chad Henne was also throwing the ball pretty well, and that’s a good thing too – but the run needs to come first, and when the Dolphins do that, they are tough to beat.

Miami also has a nice run defense that should slow Peyton Hillis down a bit. That’ll be enough with Jake Delhomme behind center, he’ll do the rest for the Dolphins.

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-4)