Army Black Knights @ Southern Methodist Mustangs Armed Forces Bowl Pick

Army Black Knights @ Southern Methodist Mustangs Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Pick: When it comes down to reasons why I’d take the Black Knights and 7-points over the favored SMU Mustangs, it comes down to three things. First, the teams Army struggle withy most usually run the ball with a lot of success (Air Force, Notre Dame, Temple) and the Mustangs almost always lose the rushing battle. Second, they Black Knights are getting a full touchdown when both teams average about the same points per game – scored and allowed. In fact, Army scores 27.5 on average compared to 26.6 from SMU, and they give up 25.2 compared to 26.4 – so a little bit of a numbers advantage there. Third, I just don’t buy the Mustangs as a touchdown favorite against a running team. Rushing attacks are more consistent than air assaults, and that consistency makes it easier to cover games.

The Mustangs can’t stop the run and the Black Knights can run it, that has the makings of a handful of long scoring drives for the underdog, and that kind of play eats up clock and options for SMU to cover. Army’s been getting better and better, and now they could end with a bowl win.

I don’t have a lot of people with me on this one. Of 14 “expert” picks on Covers, 13 of them went with SMU to cover the touchdown they’re giving up. 65%-84% (depending on where you look) of the public likes SMU as well. I’m looking to be “the one” that’s happy about this one, I guess.

Army Black Knights (+7) @ Southern Methodist Mustangs