Week 11 2010 NFL Free Picks Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

Week 11 2010 NFL Free Picks Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals: Buffalo’s played a lot of close games this season – especially for a 1-8 football team. They’ve lost 4 games by 5 points or less, falling by a field goal in overtime twice already this season. They lost another close one to Jacksonville (closer than the 26-36 final score insists) and fell by only 8 in New England. They’ve played tough, despite being out-rushed in all but 2 games this year.

With Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, the Bills have been throwing the ball with a lot more success, finishing with more passing yards than their opponents in 5 of their last 6 games. But the Bengals pose an interesting challenge – a team that was supposed to be good, but seemingly has the same close-loss disease as Buffalo.

Cincinnati has 6 losses (all but 1) by 8 points or less. That means every single time they’ve taken the field in the 4th quarter, they’ve had a shot at winning. Usually it comes down to their final drive (that fails to produce) and they end up with yet another L. As it stands, the Bengals haven’t been much better than Buffalo. They are just 2-7, just a game ahead of the Bills in the ol’ W/L column, and they to have gotten beat up on the ground, relying too much on a passing attack that makes too many mistakes. Carson Palmer has 11 interceptions already this season – which is in the Top 5.

But it’s on the ground where the Bengals have really taken a turn for the worse. Last season, they relied heavily on their offensive line and Cedric Benson. This year, they are rushing for less than 95 yards per game, and Benson has rushed for over 85 yards just once all season. He had just 14 carries for 24 yards last week against Indy’s suspect run defense. Yes, it’s been tough for the Bengals on offense.

However, I still think the Bengals are the better team. Cincinnati has the talent to beat up the Bills, and maybe, just maybe Buffalo lets up a little bit now that they got their win – a little relax, a little less effort – it’s possible. I think Cinci’s corners are a tough match-up, and offensively they could run the ball with a lot of success against Buffalo. That should set up play action for TO and Ocho, and that should be good enough to get 5.

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (-5)