St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Week 10 NFL Free Pick

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Week 10 NFL Free Pick: Not that it matters, because the Rams are obviously a different team this year than they’ve been in the past, but San Francisco has owned St. Louis over the last two seasons, winning each of the 4 match-ups with (and most of them were destructions in the 20 point range). Both teams are coming off a bye, so nobody gets the extra preparation that might sway you one way or another. I know San Francisco has a lot more to lose, and some momentum going their way after Troy Smith led the team to a victory in England two weeks ago – but St. Louis also comes off a win, and they’ve won 2 of their last 3 and sit at 4-4, tied for first in the NFC West – so it’s not like old Mo is ignoring them.

The Rams are 0-3 on the road this season, and that’d be a lot more worrisome if they hadn’t played 2 of those 3 games within just a couple points. They lost at Tampa Bay and at Oakland by a total of 3 points combined, so it’s not like they walk into their opponents’ stadium and get whooped.

The Rams don’t allow many rushing yards, ranked 8th in the NFL allowing just under 98 yards on the ground per ball game. They also aren’t a sieved through the air, right in the middle of the league giving up 216 yards passing per contest. Offensively they haven’t been what I’d call good – they are ranked 27th in total yards, ranking in the bottom half in both passing and rushing yards allowed. They have scored 17.5 points per game, ranking them 29th in the league. Not what I’d call good.

The 49ers have played pretty good at home all season long despite being just 2-6 heading into Sunday’s game. They are 2-2 at home with wins over Oakland and a neutral site win over Denver. They lost to Philadelphia (by a field goal) and New Orleans (by a field goal) – and those are two pretty good football teams to play that tight. They’ve also lost at Atlanta (by two points) and at Carolina (by another field goal).

In the end, this is a tough bet – I think the 49ers win at home, but 6.5 is too much and the value on a Rams team that allows fewer than 18 points per game with that kind of overhead is too good. I’ll take those road dogs!

St. Louis Rams (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers