NCAA Week 12 Picks Air Force Falcons @ UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

NCAA Week 12 Picks Air Force Falcons @ UNLV Runnin’ Rebels: The Falcons are 7-4, but just 2-3 on the road. The Rebels are just 2-8, but 2-3 at home. But if you thin that tells the whole story, you’re crazy. Air Force has lost road games to TCU, Oklahoma, and San Diego State. You know about TCU (the 3rd ranked team in the country), and Oklahoma probably has a special place in your heart (they are 8-2 and the 14th ranked team in the country), but you probably don’t know that San Diego State has 3 losses by a total of 11 points – a field goal loss at Missouri, a field goal loss at BYU, and a 5 point loss at TCU. That’s it. So, while Air Force is just 2-3 on the road, the teams they’ve lost to aren’t really you average run of the mill football teams – so you can ignore that road record. Air Force plays plenty well on the road.

The only teams UNLV has beaten at home (or at all) this year are Wyoming and New Mexico, two of the worst college football teams in the country.

Air Force should run wild against a UNLV team that, before their game against Wyoming, had a -900 rushing yard differential in their last five games.

I will be absolutely stunned if Air Force (averaging 32 and giving up 22 points per game) doesn’t score 40+ points against the Rebels (giving up 37 points per game, scoring 18). This spread should be close to covered by halftime.

Air Force Falcons (-19) @ UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (Thurs)