Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams NFL Week 11 Free Picks

Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams NFL Week 11 Free Picks: The Rams are a pretty dang good home team and they always seem to keep it close no matter where they are. I know they don’t get much credit for their early season success, especially being in the NFC West, one of the worst divisions in all of sport – but they really do a lot of things well.

The Rams start their strong play by giving up less than 20 points per game. They don’t put up huge offensive numbers, but giving up just 18 per contest, they don’t need to to stay competitive. People still discount the Rams, and that’s probably why they are 7-2 ATS so far this season. They’ve beaten Washington and San Diego at home thus far, and they’ve won 4 straight games ATS, 7 of their last 8.

Atlanta is coming off a game where they played great and still needed a final minute touchdown pass to beat the Ravens in Atlanta. Matt Ryan was playing the best I’ve ever seen him. He was accurate, smart, and often put the ball where only his receivers had a chance to make a play on it. If Atlanta comes in with their rushing attack working on all cylinders, they’ll be really tough to beat.
Still, the Rams are good enough to be a nice value bet getting more than a field goal at home. I know they don’t hold as much weight as Atlanta, the all mighty Falcons – but Sam Bradford can complete passes against anyone, and Steven Jackson will be a solid workhorse for this ever-improving Rams squad. I’ll take them at home with the points.

Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (+3.5)