Boise State Broncos @ Nevada Wolf Pack Friday Night Football Picks

Boise State Broncos @ Nevada Wolf Pack Friday Night Football Picks: I think Nevada has a solid team with a very good offense that can put up points in a hurry. They run the pistol offense that is sweeping amateur football everywhere, and they probably run it better than anybody else. Stud quarterback, Colin Kaepernick has already passed for over 2000 yards for the 4th time in his college career, but with just 20 yards rushing he will rush for over 1000 yards for the 3rd straight season. That would mark 3 straight years of 2000+ passing yards and 1000+ rushing yards. This year Kaepernick has 16 rushing and 19 passing touchdowns. He runs that pistol with precision. At 10-1, Nevada’s only loss of the season came against Hawaii – a team that, like Boise, can air it out.

But that’s not the only reason I’m taking Boise, the Broncos ability to move the ball through the air is impressive, and their run game is solid when they use it, but defensively they are just so much better than anything Nevada has faced. That awesome defense should really help limit what Kaepernick and the Wolf Pack can do offensively.

Boise State give up just 11.5 points per game, and I don’t know if there’s a faster defense, on a position to position basis, than the Broncos. They use speed everywhere, they tackle well, and they put their offense in great field position.

Nevada can score the football, and they will, but they won’t do it at the rate they’re used to – no way, Boise is too good, truly one of the best teams the sport has to offer. I’ll take them.

#4 Boise State Broncos (-14) @ #19 Nevada Wolf Pack (Fri)

Arizona Wildcats @ Oregon Ducks Week 13 NCAA Football Pick

Arizona Wildcats @ Oregon Ducks Week 13 NCAA Football Pick: It’s possible that both #1 and #2 could win and bolster their position for a National Championship. There’s also a chance that one or both of them could see their Championship dreams smashed with a loss against their toughest conference competition.

Oregon has to deal with that when Arizona comes to town to take on the Ducks. The Wildcats are 7-3 on the season with a #20 ranking. They come in losing two straight, a 17-42 beat-down at the hands of the Stanford Cardinal three weeks ago, and a 21-24 loss to USC two weeks ago. They just couldn’t stop the Cardinal and USCs 21-7 lead ended up being too much for the Wildcats to make up.

But I think Arizona has a chance because they do have a solid defense, much better than the Cal unit that slowed Oregon to a crawl two weekends ago. They give up just 18 points per game and are especially stingy against the run where they rank 14th in the Nation giving up just 113 yards per game. Offensively, the Wildcats can really throw the ball around. Nick Foles, the 245lb Junior Quarterback, leads an offense that ranks 10th in passing yards per game at just over 300 yards per game.

If they can stop the Ducks a couple times, and they can make big plays through the air on a defense that has been known to take chances, I think the Wildcats cover easily. They’ve had 2 weeks to prepare (but so have the Ducks) and maybe they learned something from the Cal Bears film?

#21 Arizona Wildcats (+20) @ #1 Oregon Ducks (Fri)

Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide Friday NCAA Football Pick

Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide Friday NCAA Football Pick: I’m not just taking the higher ranked team here, I promise. In fact, I have a trend that I tend to follow where you always take the lower ranked team if they are favored. Well, the Crimson Tide fit perfectly into that trend. I’m taking the Tigers to buck that trend because I think the match-up between these two powerhouses really favors the Tigers.

The Tide have played tough football this year, no doubt, they are a good team but they’ve struggled against teams that can really run the football. Look at their schedule this year you’ll see that South Carolina out-rushed the Tide by 74 yards. You’ll also see that LSU out-rushed the Tide by 123 yards. You’ll notice, if you look closely, that Alabama has two losses on the season – they just happen to be losses to LSU and South Carolina. Ole Miss out-rushed the Tide as well, but the Rebels haven’t been as consistent scoring the football or stopping it.

The thing that both LSU and South Carolina have that Auburn doesn’t is a really solid defense that stops the run well. But I don’t know if Auburn needs that. You’ll be hard pressed to find an offense that can put up points like the Tigers, and I don’t think there’s a better college football player on the planet than Cam Newton. Special players play special in big games, and I think Newton will put his mark on this one.

Two good teams, but Auburn’s rushing attack wins out.

#2 Auburn Tigers (+4.5) @ #11 Alabama Crimson Tide (Fri)

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 12 Fantasy Football Advice

Okay, I haven’t been holding up my end of the bargain, and I’m sorry for that, they started giving away steaks for five dollars down at the local strip club and, well, I’ve spent enough time there that they started giving me free shirts with the girl’s pictures on them – I’m basically a walking add for boobies. It’s good. Some of that may be true, some of it may be false, but I have been busy doing stuff that I probably don’t need to do, so dang, I’m sorry. I’ve been answering the numerous emails coming in, so feel free to send me your questions, comments, frustrations, etc – and maybe I can straighten it all out.

Get to me at…. papaweimer50@hotmail.com

Here’s some of the stuff I’ve been saying to the good people writing in this week….

David from Minnesota asks, “Papa, what’s your take on Derek Hagan?”

My take on Hagan is this – Jacksonville, bad defense (I always think this on principal, it’s correct 99% of the time) and Hagan looks like the #2 receiver there, but he’s probably #3 behind Kevin Boss. Manningham is a good player, so defenses could double him and take their chances with Hagan, who has been on and off rosters since getting picked relatively high in the draft a few years ago. There’s a reason he usually doesn’t play, and I think it’s because he doesn’t run very good routes, is slow out of breaks, and that should make him a mediocre option. He didn’t really light it up last week. But you’re right to look at him – and I would probably rate him ahead of  Ben Obamanu (another player David asked about in a previous email), if only because Ben is a #3 receiver on an offense that doesn’t pass as much, and at least Hagan is a big cat that might get a jump ball or two in a goal line situation.

Joe was a first time sender and sent me this, “I’m sending out an S.O.S.  My team has had the injury bug all year long starting with, Ryan Grant, Steve Smith (Car), Owen Daniels, Tony Romo, and this latest one with Hakeem Nicks.  I feel I have a decent team but I could use a solid Waiver Wire pickup in both my TE and WR3 spots. Could you please review my squad and make some recommendations as to who I should grab? (Big Ben, Vincent Jackson, Bowe, Knox, Mendenhall, McFadden, Tony Moeki, Longwell, Ravens or Vikings – bench Blount, Watson, Nicks – and I have free roster spot) Thanks in advance!!!”

Hey Joe, thanks for writing in. I have a team that has all those first four players on it, Grant, Smith, Daniels, and Romo – needless to say I haven’t won too many games lately. Hopefully we can both turn it around.

Here are some things I might do to add some upside to your squad, but your starting line-up still looks pretty solid going forward. I also have Vincent Jackson (in that same league) and I’m hoping he can help me pull out two late season wins to get me into the playoffs as a low seed. Funny thing is, my league is a dynasty league, and I’ve had all those players for a while – just a tough run of luck there.

I think I’d pick up Hernandez, from New England, and just hope he’s a big part of the game plan against Detroit. I watched some of the angles Louis Dumas took in the Lions’ last game, and I think Hernandez could eat him up. He’s not as consistent as Watson and Moeki, but his upside is a lot higher – and I like upside at TE – because consistency gets you 5 or 6 points, upside could find you 20. You could drop Moeki to make that change if you want. The Chiefs do play Seattle, a legitimate bad pass defense, but the Hawks give up a lot of yards to receivers, so Moeki might not be as big a part of the game plan. Dreesan is another option. The Titans are solid defensively, but he’s looking like a nice target for Schaub with Owens likely out again. Either of those guys I’d rather start than Moeki or Watson (with Watson it’s just I don’t trust Delhomme to pass me the bread).

If you pick one of those guys up, and drop another – that still leaves you with two waiver pick ups. I think Nate Burleson would be my #1 options and Derek Hagan would be my #2. Listen, there’s a reason why Hagan has been out of starting line-ups for most of his down and down career, but Eli throws the rock, and Hagan looks like he’s in line to be the #1 receiver there from here on out. I guess that makes Boss relevant too, didn’t think of that. The Jaguars are historically not very good defensively, and a Boss play there might be nice after all. I think his floor is a lot higher than Hernandez, who, if not part of the game plan, hardly gets more than a target or two. However, I don’t know if Boss’s ceiling is as high. Up to you there, but Boss is a strong play as well, if only because Eli has to throw it somewhere. Gaffney would be #3 if it comes to that, but I think I’d try for Burleson. He’s just been too solid opposite Calvin Johnson. If you look at his stats since coming back from injury, he’s at a nice #2 receiver pace, and it’s not like the Patriots have been great against the pass.

Stan the man-Leigh typed, “Papa, always love your take – I’m currently starting Sidney Rice over Michael Crabtree – good move? Crab killed me last week. I also have Woodhead…”

Yeah, tough to argue about what you have there. Crabtree was a killer for me as well. Jones did catch just 3 balls, but touchdowns are nice. Crabtree against Arizona seems like a pretty good match-up, but stick with your gut here, because Rice is a beast, he played most of the game last week, and the Redskins have a bottom 30 pass defense. Plus he came out healthy. I like Woodhead against the Lions, getting carries and working out of the backfield – but I would never feel comfortable starting him. Just put your hopes in the guy you believe in, because I think he’s the highest upside guy you’ve got. Rice helped get Brett’s mojo back last season, why not again this time around?

Top 5 NFL Free Picks: Arses Picks for Week 12 2010

Top 5 NFL Free Picks: Week 11 NFL 2010 Predictions

I’ve learned my lesson with parlays, for now anyway, as my 4-1 week made everything better again. It’s funny how winning money can actually work as a band-aid for life. And they say winning the lotto can’t buy you happiness – shooooot, they dumb. An extra half point on the spread in the Colts/Patriots game made me plenty happy! Speaking of winning the lotto, I’m going to put in a 10 game parlay and…. NO, NO, NO!!! What is it that draws me in to those beasts? I’m fighting the urge this week; 5 picks, 5 spreads, single games – that’s it. Here’s the run down.

Starting Account Total: $1000
At Risk This Week: $500 to Win $475
Money Left: $1119 with $500 of that on the line
Total W/L Last Week: (4-1)
Season W/L Record – Individual Games: (30-22-2)

Week 11 Picks Review

Chicago Bears (+1.5) @ Miami Dolphins (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ St. Louis Rams (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (LOSS)
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) @ New England Patriots (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)

And that, my kind readers, is what 4-1 looks like. Remember, You can also keep track of me on TWITTER @AlaskanArse. I’ll update my thoughts on games, my picks and fantasy observations alike. Here’s a link to Week 1′s article if you need a little more explanation of the way I’m keeping track.

Here are Week 12′s picks and bets.

(All games this week are Bet $100 to WIN $95)

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has been good lately, New Orleans is good, has been awesome, gets Reggie Bush back, and they aren’t Dallas. Those things should work out for them. New Orleans, well Drew Brees, will toy with the Cowboys secondary, and if they get down early, those old “give up” feelings might come back right quick. I like my chances here.

Cleveland Browns (-10) @ HOME VS. Carolina Panthers
I see that Cleveland plays a close game just about every time out, and I know that Jake Delhomme might forget he’s playing for the Browns and throw to Panthers on accident – if I actually thought that would hurt his chances it might stop me form making this pick, but everyone knows when a pass comes out of his hand it’s a 50-50 to which team it’s thrown to. Anyway, even with Delhomme, Cleveland is a solid team, and the Panthers have Brian St. Pierre at the helm – and that seems like an upgrade for them. Nightmare season.

Green Bay Packers (+2) @ Atlanta Falcons
Oh, the Falcons may be 8-2, and they’ve played lots of good football – but I still see the Packers as a better team on both sides of the ball. Getting points, I think the Packers are a great bet just about every time out. Look for Rodgers to continue his dynamic passing relationship with Greg Jennings and don’t be surprised if Brandon Jackson has a big day for the Pack.

Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) @ Washington Redskins
Getting rid of Childress has to be a weight off the players’ backs – and with that gone a more free and easy attack, some aggression, and a little confidence will go a long way. I think Brett has one of his best games of the season with Chilly out the door, Sidney Rice back, and Harvin healthy. Oh, and I think Adrian Peterson goes off. If you like watching Shanahan’s face get as red as the Redskins’ maroon uniforms, it will be a good day to check out the Washington game on the ol’ TV.

Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ HOME VS. San Francisco 49ers
Just on principal alone, watching the 49ers continued to be favored hurts my brain. Arizona is bad, but the 49ers aren’t much better, they play down to their competition, and I just have a feeling the Cardinals can hold serve at home. We shall see… What a freaking Monday Night Football game – I think I might play 52-card pick up with myself instead.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings: 2010 NFL Fantasy Focus

Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Focus Week 12

All the players we like, ranked out for your very eyes to view – we’re playing a game here, every week one of the writers wins the fantasy championship of the world of the week – so there are big things on the line. Here is my Fantasy Focus for NFL Week 12…

(Papa wants to let you know, if you want some old-school bad-ass fantasy advice, send him emails to….. PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM)

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week, looking for Top 5 at their position.

1. Peyton Manning – I expect Manning to score, and Phillip to score right back – I expect a shootout. I expect fantasy points to come from places you’ve never seen!
2. Phillip Rivers – See above.
3. Ray Rice- Best offensive player on a good team that should have a nice day against the Bucs’ run D.
4. Chris Johnson – This guy has a great schedule going forward – get him if you can.
5. Rashard Mendenhall– Buffalo against the run, not good. Bad, in fact. Mendenhall as a runner, good. There you have it.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week.

1. Brandon Lloyd– He should never leave this list.
2. Peyton Hillis– The Panthers don’t scare me much.
3. Mario Manningham– Not the greatest match-up, but Manningham is good, and he’ll be Eli’s #1 target, and the Jags will be there to enjoy the ride.
4. Steve Johnson- The Steelers are really good defensively, but the Bills will be passing out of the gates as running isn’t an options. The Steelers can get hurt by the pass.
5. Tom Brady – Brady is projected at around 7 or 8 – he’ll be a Top 3 guy against Detroit.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or falling off the charts, but I still like them this week…

1. Mike Tolbert– Tolbert will likely get the lion’s share of the carries against the Colts – that makes him a nice option.
2. Ronnie Brown – Is this the day that Ronnie finally breaks out? If the Dolphins pull their head out and run the ball, yes.
3. Keiland Williams– The Vikings have been decent against the run, but Williams will be used a lot, nice fill in guy.
4. Brandon Jacobs – Jacobs gets the start, and the Jaguars haven’t been shredded in four games or so – they’re due.
5. Matt Cassel– Seahawks secondary. Matt has been throwing the ball well – that’s a good duo.

Super Sleepers: Undrafted guys that are usually unowned, but in a pinch put ‘em in coach!

1. Jimmy Graham– Graham could really be great against the Cowboys – they can lose TEs.
2. Shaun Hill– The Patriots secondary isn’t as bad as they’re ranked, but Hill should be throwing early and often to keep up with the Pats.
3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Detroit doesn’t have the best run D, BJGE runs very hard.
4. Brett Favre – YES! Really. In one league I’m taking this chance against the 31st ranked pass defense.
5. Nate Burleson – If the Patriots aren’t stupid enough to let Calvin Johnson beat them, Burleson might have a day.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Fred Jackson –If it’s a PPR, you might still be okay here – at least 5 catches. But if it’s not, yards and scores likely won’t be enough to warrant a start.
2. Lance Moore– Reggie’s really back this week, right… right? If he is, Lance is a sit.
3. Joe Flacco– I don’t think he’ll be in the Top 15. I see the Ravens leaning on the run, old school style.
4. Carson Palmer– I would be scared of starting Palmer if he were an option for me.
5. Cedric Benson– He’s my only option in one league – I’m bummed about it.

***Time to win two big ones and head to the playoffs – do it!***

This is how we project Week 12 to go down.

Week 12 QB Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester	Nate B. Kuhns
Drew Brees	Phillip Rivers	Phillip Rivers	Peyton Manning	Michael Vick
Aaron Rodgers	Peyton Manning	Michael Vick	Phillip Rivers	Ben Roethlisberger
Ben Roethlisberger	Drew Brees	Drew Brees	Drew Brees	Aaron Rodgers
Phillip Rivers	Michael Vick	Peyton Manning	Aaron Rodgers	Phillip Rivers
Shaun Hill	Aaron Rodgers	Aaron Rodgers	Tom Brady	Peyton Manning

Week 12 RB Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester	Nate B. Kuhns
Adrian Peterson	Arian Foster	Chris Johnson	Ray Rice	Rashard Mendenhall
Peyton Hillis	Rashard Mendenhall	Adrian Peterson	Chris Johnson	Chris Johnson
Steven Jackson	Chris Johnson	Arian Foster	Rashard Mendenhall	Adrian Peterson
Chris Johnson	Adrian Peterson	Peyton Hillis	Adrian Peterson	Peyton Hillis
Frank Gore	Peyton Hillis	Frank Gore	Arian Foster	Frank Gore

Week 12 WR Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester	Nate B. Kuhns
Greg Jennings	Larry Fitzgerald	Mario Manningham	Calvin Johnson	Andre Johnson
Andre Johnson	Marques Colston	DeSean Jackson	Roddy White	Calvin Johnson
Calvin Johnson	Andre Johnson	Brandon Lloyd	Mario Manningham	Greg Jennings
Vincent Jackson	Calvin Johnson	Calvin Johnson	Greg Jennings	Roddy White
Mike Wallace	Greg Jennings	Larry Fitzgerald	Dwayne Bowe	DeSean Jackson

Week 12 TE Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester	Nate B. Kuhns
Jacob Tamme	Jacob Tamme	Vernon Davis	Kevin Boss	Jacob Tamme
Marcedes Lewis	Vernon Davis	Jacob Tamme	Joel Dreessen	Antonio Gates
Heath Miller	Todd Heap	Tony Gonzalez	Jimmy Graham	Brandon Petitgrew
Kevin Boss	Jason Witten	Kevin Boss	Jacob Tamme	Todd Heap
Jimmy Graham	Jermaine Gresham	Jason Witten	Brandon Petitgrew	Vernon Davis

Week 12 DST Predictions

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester	Nate B. Kuhns
Browns	Browns	Browns	Raiders	Steelers
Steelers	Steelers	Eagles	Saints	Packers
Raiders	Packers	Steelers	Eagles	Titans
Eagles	Patriots	49ers	Giants	Ravens
Jets	Jets	Chiefs	Browns	Chiefs

Who could we have MISSED?

QB: Brett Favre: New coach, new feeling, bad Redskins secondary – Brett always has a little more magic left in him, right?

RB: Mike Tolbert: He could get a couple touchdowns against the Colts, and if he gets 20 carries he’s always over 100 yards.

WR: Reggie Wayne: Most of us have had Reggie ranked almost every week – but in a possible shootout week, everyone leaves Reg off their lists… hmm… will we regret it?

TE: Chris Cooley: One of the more consistent TEs, Cooley is one of McNabb’s top targets.

DEF: Titans: Tennessee has been good, and the Houston Texans are always a second away from self destructing.