Pittsburgh Panthers @ Connecticut Huskies NCAA Football Free Picks: There’s a lot to like about the Panthers here. They have won 3 straight games, and they’ve actually dominated those games. In 4 straight they’ve out-rushed and out-passed their competition – not always in easy feat. They really seem to be getting on track, and especially QB Tino Sunseri is playing at his highest level this season. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games, each of which they’ve out-gained their opponents offensively. They beat Louisville 20-3, Rutgers 41-21, and Syracuse 45-14 over their last three while Thursday’s opponent, UConn, lost at both Rutgers and Louisville lately – 24-27 and 0-26, shutout by the Cardinals. Like I said, there’s a lot to like about the Panthers.
But the Huskies aren’t chopped liver, they have some things working on their side, too. They’re getting points and they have shown the ability to play close games. They are playing their best defense of the season and they have made big plays when they needed them most. But most of all, they are a very good home team and on Thursday’s that advantage is a huge one. Pittsburgh hasn’t been terrible on the road, though, and momentum can be a great thing.
It’s really a tough call for me. Not as easy as it seems. That Thursday Night home field advantage can just be so good and UConn is 4-0 at home this season, upsetting West Virginia last week.
But I have to give my nod to Pittsburgh – it’s about momentum, and it’s about the way UConn got ran right over last week and lucked out with a victory anyway. They were out-gained by nearly 150 rushing yards and 136 total yards. They took the game into OT where they beat the Mountaineers at home. That huge win can push a team in the wrong direction, and I think Pittsburgh takes advantage of that – plus, they’ve just been so solid lately it’d be a crime to go against them.
Pittsburgh Panthers (-5) @ Connecticut Huskies
Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 10 Underdogs
3-1-1 in Week 9 – you bet, made up for that 2-3 in Week 8 and then some. I don’t have my record right off hand, but I’m telling you, I’ve been killing it this season and there’s no way anybody in the site as a record matching my win-percentage. I know Lucky picks every game, and he does a hell of a job with that impossible situation, but winning is winning and I’ve been doing a lot of that. How many times do I have to tell ya? It’s all about the UNDERDOGS!!! Here’s 5 more dogs for your sports betting pleasure!
Week 10 Free Picks
Chicago Bears (+1) @ HOME VS.Minnesota Vikings: I’m going back to the well here – the Vikings keep getting favored like they’ve done something with it. Please, they beat the Cardinals in overtime. When we discuss games here in LL.com-land, we still can’t understand what all the fuss is about. Cardinals, in overtime – get over it! The Bears are tough at home, and they have enough to beat the Vikings if Minnesota doesn’t play well. When have they played well again?
Detroit Lions (+3) @ Buffalo Bills: The Lions are way better than you think. They’ve been tough every week. The QB issues scare me a little, but then I feel better because they are playing the Bills. The Bills know how to lose, even though they are playing solid football. Anyone with points against Buffalo seems like a great deal, even if the game is played in lovely Buffalo.
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) @ HOME VS. New York Jets: Oh the Jets will have trouble with Hillis, everyone does. Colt McCoy has been very solid, and I imagine he’ll continue to be. I know the Browns don’t have much offensive firepower, but at home, getting a field goal plus, I think they are a solid bet with a very strong offensive line and a QB that doesn’t make painful mistakes.
Washington Redskins (+3.5) @ HOME VS. Philadelphia Eagles: The Redskins have already gotten the best of the Eagles once. Now they are at home, and I’ve seen Donovan step up his game after a situation like this before. I know Mike Vick has been awesome, but the Eagles don’t deserve 3+ points in Washington, the Redskins have been good enough defensively to be a good value at that spot.
NFL Week 10 Free Pick Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons: There are a few factors that have me going with the Ravens in Atlanta, but what it comes right down to is that I’d rather have the better team in one heck of a battle between conferences. I’m getting a point here which doesn’t really mean a thing except I could get a push in a real close one. I’d take the Ravens getting or giving a couple, that doesn’t change my value at all.
From what I saw from the Ravens yesterday, their rushing attack is getting back in the swing of things, putting up some good totals against a very good Miami Dolphins defense. Baltimore out-rushed and out-passed the Dolphins, also winning the turnover battle 3-0.
It doesn’t hurt my pick at all that Roddy White comes into a short week having to leave the last game early. Roddy should play, but I don’t know how a guy can be 100% on Thursday Night when he got hurt and couldn’t return on Sunday.
Also, I think the Buccaneers should have beaten the Falcons last week, and that’s a prime reason to bet against the Falcons. The Ravens haven’t had a consistent struggle yet this season, meaning it hasn’t been heavy rushing teams, strong pass rushers, or passing efficient teams that have beaten them. I think the Ravens physicality proves to be a tough thing for the Falcons to handle, even though they’ve gotten better at stopping the run.
NCAA Week 11 Miami Ohio Redhawks @ Bowling Green Falcons Pick: Wednesday road chalk doesn’t usually draw up hearts, flowers, and wins on any chalk boards, but I think this is the exception to the rule. The Redhawks aren’t a terrible team, and the same can’t really be said for the Falcons of Bowling Green. Bowling Green just picked up their 2nd win of the season in a shocker a couple weeks ago at Central Michigan. Aside from that W, Bowling Green’s only other win came against a bad Marshall team that is thinking about changing their name from Thundering Herd to just Herd. It’s been bad for Bowling Green as they’ve struggled against just about everyone.
When you look at how the Redhawks did against like opponents, Miami really looks like the better team. Bowling Green hosted Buffalo and lost 26-28. Miami played at Buffalo and won 21-9. Miami played at Central Michigan and won by a touchdown. Bowling Green won by a field goal. Bowling Green lost to Kent State 6-30. Miami beat Kent State 27-21. Both teams were beat up by Ohio – but that’s the only thing they’ve had in common.
These two teams might be more even than the record insists, but I still have to give the nod to Miami. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 overall and on the road. They have a quarterback that is fairly accurate and at least has as many TDs and INTs. Bowling Green has struggled on the ground and through the air, and mistakes have come more often than positive plays. Their leading passer has 5 TDs to his 9 INTs.
Neither team is playing on a short week, both haven’t played since October 31st, so no advantage there, either. Take Miami-Ohio!
Miami Ohio Redhawks (-2.5) @ Bowling Green Falcons