Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Monday Night Football Pick

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Monday Night Football Pick: I know the Colts lost this one earlier in the year in Houston, and losing twice in the same season to the Texans is damn near impossible, so I’ll just say, this one is going to be close – closer than 6 points – because the Texans can really run the ball, the Colts really can’t, and Houston is just about as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1.

I know Peyton Manning and his healthy receivers still match up very well against the Texans’ low-ranked pass defense. But that Texans defense has explosive players, and without as many weapons (like no Dallas Clark, no Austin Collie) Peyton won’t be able to find open receivers at every turn. He might get hit a couple times. Also, I don’t see the Colts running with much success on the Texans’ front line. I know Houston is beat-up a little bit, but moving Brian Cushing inside should stuff the run – that guy is a beast.

Houston can move the ball, through air and ground, and I expect them to do so in Indianapolis. The Texans have been up and down this year, and I’m not sure that coming off a bye week is exactly where I want them to be – but they are healthy at TE and WR, with Owen Daniels feeling as good as he has all season, and Andre Johnson having a week off to rest his body. I think that plays a role on Monday Night, and I think the Texans really step up their game in a situation they don’t get to play in often – Monday Night, everyone watching, time to shine.

Houston Texans (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Sunday Night Football Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Sunday Night Football Pick: Well, the Saints get Reggie Bush back this week and the Steelers lose one of their best defensive players, DE Aaron Smith, but I still like the Steelers to impose their will upon the suddenly sorry Saints.

Reggie opens up some things for the Saints, but this just doesn’t look like the same team that took the Super Bowl Championship last season. They don’t have that aggressive nature on defense and it’s even more questionable offensively. This used to be a team that went right after it, and Brees was playing defenses as if it was his own little puppet show. Now he looks rushed, out of sync, pretty average overall – and where 3rd and 5 used to be a given, and 3rd and 12 was a probably, and 3rd and 20 was a maybe – those have changed to maybe, only on a penalty, and no chance.

The great thing about the Steelers is that you know an opposing offense isn’t going to be able to run the ball against them. I know Aaron Smith is a big reason for that, but I don’t think the so-so rushing attack of the Saints is going to churn out a big day at home against the Steel-show. Pittsburgh still hits harder than any team in the league, and they really do a lot defensively to ruffle the feathers of opposing offenses.

The Steelers will be able to run, and if they commit to Rashard Mendenhall, I think they will run away with this one. If they pass the ball early and often, I’m not quite as sure – but with the success I foresee on the ground, I think they’ll run more in this game. Offensively, I see these two teams as fairly equal through the air. I’m not ready to say Brees and the Big Dumb are equals at QB, but both can be explosive at times. Both have decent rushing attacks, not great, but passable.

Where the difference lies is defensively. Where the Steelers have continued their aggressive play, the Saints have a little softness to their defense. I think Pittsburgh wins on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) @ New Orleans Saints

Week 8 Top 5 NFL Predictions: Papas Underdog Picks

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 8 Underdogs

Alright, back on the winning horse, now. I had those 3 straight 4-1 weeks followed by an 0-4-1 stink pile, and promptly back on track with a 3-2 run in Week 7. This week I’m adding a little “UPSET OF THE WEEK” portion after my top 5 picks, and that’s one I like to win outright. But for these, we’re still just trying to cover spreads, something that’s a lot easier if you stick to the dogs. Pick the right dogs and beat Vegas, folks, that’s what it’s all about. The sportsbooks don’t want you to pick like me, they’ll have to change everything up! Keep picking the right dogs and they’ll pull you through the finish line of the Iditarod. Here come ATS winners!

Week 8 Free Picks

Washington Redskins (+3) @ Detroit Lions: This one doesn’t seem fair, picking against a favored Lions team – but hey, I don’t write the lines, I just bet them, and if it says dog, it’s fair game. The Lions just lose, they have found ways to be close, win ATS a lot, but they haven’t found ways to win ball games. With Shaun Hill out, and Matthew Stafford coming back anyway, the Lions might not be the same offensive team that was scoring points at will over the last few weeks. In fact, I’m going to be they aren’t. Give me McNabb and Splinter in Detroit.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys: This one seems to easy, but I might as well take it. The Cowboys are one of the best teams in football at finding a way to lose after dominating the football game. Against New York, they just got the poo kicked right out of them, so there wasn’t any need to look for a loss. However, going for it early in the 4th when they needed a field goal anyway was stupid, and that probably kept them from covering. Stupid Cowboys. Anyway, the Jags aren’t good, but neither are the Cowboys – giving a bad team 7 points to make up seems wrong.

Tennessee Titans (+4) @ San Diego Chargers: I know, I know, the Chargers are good, right? This is the same things as Dallas folks, don’t give them credit until they prove they have something going this year. The Chargers are giving up 4 points to a pretty darn good Titans team, and I’m not sure they deserve that kind of credit. This team finds ways to lose and the Titans are always a well-coached, tough-nosed football team – that’s a bad combo if you’re rooting for San Diego.

Miami Dolphins (+2) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Dolphins are the better team, here. They haven’t started running well yet, but they will, and then watch out. Right now, the Bengals are slipping, and Miami’s tough-nosed and underrated defense is a nice bet to win on the road. Plus, Chad Henne to Brandon Marshall is going to be a common theme on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) @ New England Patriots:  The Patriots haven’t looked good, and they are kind of scaring me with their second half shut-downs offensively. This is a team that used to live on big plays, and now they can’t get anything done in the 2nd half over 10 yards if they’re lucky. The Vikings haven’t played well, but they still have the talent to do big things. If Brett plays, I think he torches the Patriots secondary, if it’s Tarvaris Jackson, a run-more scheme helps the Vikings keep it close. I like the cover here.

NFL UPSET OF THE WEEK

Houston Texans (+200) @ Indianapolis Colts

Now that the Texans know they can beat the Colts, it might just be easier in Round 2 of this divisional showdown. I’m taking into account that the Texans are getting healthier, coming off a bye, while the Colts are hurting more and more every single day. It’s still unsure if Joseph Addai will be able to play, probably not, and this is already a team with trouble on the offensive side of the ball. I expect better numbers out of Matt Schaub this time around, as the Colts will surely pay more attention to stopping the run. Oh yeah, and I don’t think they’ll be successful doing that, either. Take the Texans, they’re making a broom especially for Peyton and his hobbled cast of Colts.

NFL Picks Week 8 Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots

NFL Picks Week 8 Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots: It’s Brad Childress that has me choosing the Patriots this week, even though they haven’t played real well of late (yet keep winning) and are going up against a Vikings team that is literally standing on their last leg, a bruised and battered old leg with a swollen oddly-fractured ankle and a stress fracture in the foot. The thing is, I would be completely excited about Tarvaris Jackson starting as his athleticism could help the Vikings lack of pass blocking effectiveness, plus he has plenty of tools to get the ball to receivers – but stupid Brad Childress always takes a safety approach with Jackson in at QB, and that translates to defenses not having to worry about as much, and that translates to Jackson getting a raw deal. Stupid, stupid, Brad.

Now, the second part of this equation is the Patriots defense. They aren’t brilliant by any means, but they really buckle down in the red-zone. They’ve given up a ton of yards, especially through the air, but this team keeps winning and it’s because the Pats limit their opponents’ touchdowns. That’s very important.

The last part of this match-up is the Vikings defense, a group that hasn’t shown any ability to make the big play. They don’t rush the quarterback well. They don’t cause many turnovers – they just don’t do anything special this year, and I don’t see them playing with a lead – which means they are going to have change or get routed by Tom Brady. Without a pass rush to deal with or elite cover corners, the field is open for the ever-so-accurate Brady to matriculate the ball down the field. Good enough, I’ll take the Pats, even though I’m not in love with the spread.

Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots (-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals Point Spread Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals Point Spread Pick: Right now I don’t think the Buccaneers can run successfully against any team in the NFL. I don’t know what happened, injuries and such I guess, but they look nothing like the solid offensive line they had intact last season, as I don’t think the runners have changed that much. I see Caddy’s numbers and I think, “he must have lost it” but I watch him and he gets hit as soon as he gets the ball, and he’s fighting hard to get just a couple yards. Blound ran well, though, and he’s always going to be a tough tackle.

The Cardinals don’t do much right on the offensive line either, as that running game hasn’t been what I expected with Beanie Wells becoming the headliner on that offense – but I still think that time will come, and against a ho-hum Bucs defensive front, I think this could be that week.

The Bucs are 4-2 right now and average 5 points fewer per game than they allow. That record will be coming back to reality right quick, even if it means losing to the lowly Cardinals. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 3-3 while giving up 10 points more per game than they score, but they are an absolutely different team at home and on the road – especially defensively.

Last week the Cardinals looked solid on the defensive side of the ball, even in a loss, they were only in that down-early situation because of poor play by the offense in Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders Free Pick & Preview

Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders Free Pick & Preview: As a warning, the Seahawks and I don’t often see eye to eye when it comes to weekly picks, this team is the bane of my picking existence, but every once in a while I’ll get one of their games right on the nail – and I have a little gut feeling that tells me this is going to be one of those games.

I almost feel crazy writing this, but the Seahawks are looking like a complete team right now. They have a very good running back and an improving rushing attack, and Hasselback is throwing the ball with some confidence to his young receivers, something he hasn’t done since the 2008 season.

They didn’t play well last week, don’t be confused by the 22-10 final score over the Cardinals – that game was gross. And the Raiders did absolutely dominate the Broncos – there was nothing confusing about that game, the Raiders dominated from about breakfast until adult beverage time afterwords. But I don’t see the Raiders playing awesome football two weeks in a row – they just don’t have that quite yet.

The Hawks? They’ll play better, especially against a Raiders team that doesn’t stop the run very well. If the Hawks limit their pass attempts and go all-in with the run, I think they win this one easily. If they muck around, well, they’ll have a battle on their hands, but a win is still in reach.

Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Oakland Raiders

NFL Week 8 Pick Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers

NFL Week 8 Pick Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers’ numbers have to add up one of these games, right? San Diego has been moving the ball up and down the field at will over the first 7 games, gaining more yards than their opponents in every game besides 1, where the Rams produced 13 yards more offense than San Diego.

With all that, the Rams are still just 2-5 and on the brink of absolute failure. It’s truly amazing – the more you look at the numbers – the harder you have to search to see how the Chargers are losing their football games. They out-gained Kansas City by 192 yards, Seattle by 247 yards, Oakland by 227 yards, and New England by 184 yards yet they were 0-4 in those football games. Injuries have hurt this football team on both sides of the ball, but defensively they are playing as well as I’ve seen them play in the last few years. Offensively they are missing a much-needed weapon, and Ryan Mathews hasn’t yet become the sure-thing back they need to have consistency on that side of the ball.

But the Chargers have the guys to be a good team, and like I keep saying, the numbers insist it will start happening soon. Eventually they’ll start winning some football games, and I’m thinking that starts this weekend at home against the Titans.

Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers (-3)

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 8 NFL Fantasy Football Advice & Tips

Alright, it’s been a while since I posted the emails (and answers) being sent to me, but I’ve been dealing out fantasy advice left and right. This is certainly my most busy season to date, and thus I hesitate, but here’s my email address if you have your fantasy or just regular football questions on queue. PAPAWEIMER50@Hotmail.com – Hook me up with your best questions, comments, and observations, and if your stuff is relevant I’ll bust it out on my weekly “Ask Papa Weimer” section. If it doesn’t get into the article, I still answer everything as quick as possible. Keep reading, the fun has just begun!

Bryson just off Broadway asks, “Lucky, this is my first time writing in about anything fantasy, but I need a tight end pick-up because Dallas Clark’s wristies are no longer healthy, and the guy I picked up last week (John Carlson) didn’t do dick. How would you rank the following TEs? Ben Watson, Brent Celek, Heath Miller, Marcedez Lewis…”

I think Celek has a nice role on the Eagles still, he hasn’t been great, but he’s shown (last year) that he’s a very good tight end. The targets are there, he’s got 43 so far this season and I think that’s more than any of the other guys… (actually not true, Ben Watson has 46) – still I just never know about the passing attack in Cleveland, who’s going to be leading it, and so on, so that’s why I originally ranked Watson just after Celek. Watson is a specimen though, I’ll never forget him chasing down Champ Bailey in the playoffs from clear across the field – that was awesome, and with no real receiving threat there, I’m going to move him ahead – he might be the surest thing for those QBs. Lewis has been a touchdown machine thus far, but his targets are fewer, but he is a great red-zone target. Still, it’s hard to trust him. He has more yards and touchdowns than Celek, though, so he’s still in this group. All these guys are really pretty even.

Heath Miller catches touchdowns, and maybe he’ll be relied on by Big Ben a little more now with Santonio Holmes gone, but I think Ben likes Mike Wallace just fine. And He just wont’ get as many looks as Celek or Watson, and I don’t think he has Lewis’s upside.

D-Burgos from work wrote, “I lost 97 to 95.. I benched Palmer (like my guardian Angel suggested…lol) who gave me 26 pts in my league’s format and Kolb gave me 5.. DAMN!!…lol – Ok… Week 8… I need a Flex, and I hear Reggie Bush is coming back, but how would you rank him amongst these guys? Bush / Chris Ivory / Beanie Wells / Michael Bush / Jonathan Stewart /Anthony Gonzalez or a Hot Lee Evans? Thanks Guardian Angel… lol”

Hey, can’t win them all…. I did say that I liked Palmer’s match-up a little more, but that he was a “risky” fantasy option. How was I to know that Kevin Kolb would come out looking like he did? The NFL, not always the most predictable of leagues. That probably goes well with the fact that Lucky was 5-9 with his NFL Picks this week… Ha. Like I said, can’t win them all!

Reggie Bush is a decent option, but I think I’d rank Beanie Wells ahead of him. Then Reggie. Then Michael Bush. Then Lee Evans. Then Jon Stewart. Then Anthony Gonzalez. I don’t think Chris Ivory will be worth owning past this week. With Reggie coming back, Ladel Betts still in the mix, and Pierre Thomas well on his way to recover, Ivory isn’t a guy that will have any value when you get done blinking. I rank Beanie #1 because I think he’s the only guy that could conceivably get 20 touches a game for the rest of the season. Reggie Bush has upside in terms of catches and big plays, but I think the consistency from Beanie will only go up from here. I still think he will be the focal point of that offense for a good portion of the season.

Sorry for the hairy advice last week, but at least my track record is still pretty good.  -Guardian Angel

Ben Wallace of West Texas writes, “I’m in a couple survivor leagues down here in the country of Texas and because I’ve stayed away from picking home-country teams, I’m in the final 2 and 3 of both situations. There’s some Texas-sized money on the line, and you’ve been helpful with your picks thus far. I can’t pick New Orleans, Indianapolis, Seattle, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or New England – Who would you go with this week?

Nice thinking, Ben – I like the clever thought process. If you’re ever in a homer fantasy league or survivor pool, or anything of the sort, you always do better eliminating those teams from your selection committee – that way, when those teams lose games they were favored to win, you get rid of a big chunk. I’m willing to bet you lost half your participants in Week 2 (Dallas’s loss at home to the Bears) and when you probably luckily steered clear of New Orleans’ losses to Arizona (Week 5) and Cleveland (Week 7). Good work. I’m always thinking survivor, it’s one of my favorite games, and like you I’m still in 2 (I lost one when I picked the 49ers in Week 1, stupid rookie mistake, never take a road team in Week 1 – or any week – if you can help it). That brings me to my top 5 for this week. You still have to make the decision, ultimately, so here’s how I’d rank them…

Kansas City at home against Buffalo: I think this is your best bet (despite the fact that I’m picking the Bills to cover a 9-point spread this weekend). You have a big time home field advantage on your side, as the Chiefs are always much better at home than they are on the road, and that’s evident throughout the team’s history. You have a strong rushing attack, maybe the best in the league, against one of the worst run defenses around. You have a Chiefs team that has learned how to win, where Buffalo, even playing at the top of their game, hasn’t collected a win all season. The odds are in your favor, too, the Chiefs are the biggest favorite Vegas has to offer this week. But they’re still the Chiefs – tough week – good luck!

Dallas Cowboys at home against Jacksonville: This might be scary because Dallas has also been good at losing (ala San Diego) despite better numbers than their opponents (on average, not last week). But I thin Jon Kitna’s presence will be good – the Defense will inevitably play harder without their offense at full health, and Kitna is still a solid QB option in the league. Jacksonville probably doesn’t have the ability to stop anything Dallas wants to do, and that’s why I think Felix Jones has his best day this season. Dallas will run more, and that’s good for them. Still, now you’re picking a home team, something you’ve done well to not do.

New York Jets at home against Green Bay: It’s tough, I think Green Bay could pull the upset here – but chances are the Jets beat the Packers up by running the ball, and you have to think New York is going to pull out a great game against the pass one of these weeks….

Washington on the road at Detroit: On the road picks are never a great thing to rely on, but it’s a tough week. The Redskins are better than the Lions, though I must admit, Detroit might be close to a toss up at home against the Skins. The only reason I would take Washington is because Matthew Stafford is coming back, and maybe, just maybe, he’s rusty. And if he starts out poorly, his confidence (and the team’s confidence as well) might struggle – because of how well the offense moved the ball under Shaun Hill. Tough one, hopefully you’re choosing from above.

Tennessee Titans on the road at San Diego: The Titans are playing tough, the Chargers are good at losing. I know it’s a dangerous pick, but shoot, this week is tough, what did you want me to do, pick the Rams at home? (they would have been option 6, gross)

Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams NFL Week 8 Free Picks

Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams NFL Week 8 Free Picks: The Rams are 3-1 at home while the Panthers are 0-2 on the road – it’s just a couple numbers, but there’s some validity to the Rams playing better at home, I know it, because I’ve seen it. I don’t know how this still happens at a professional level, but it does – and the Rams just feel more comfort at home. That being said, I’m taking the Panthers. I think they have the right guys playing right now, and they aren’t as bad of a football team as 1-5 looks. That’s seemingly what the sportsbooks want you to look at, that big fat ugly record, and I think that bettors are looking at that when they 76% of them are taking the Rams to win and cover.

But look deeper and you’ll see a Carolina team that runs the ball well (and in a close game that becomes even more important), finally has the correct quarterback in again (they shouldn’t have given up on him so quick, obviously, Coach Fox is a donkey), and has a little bit of that confidence back.

I really like Sam Bradford, but can this guy really keep putting up solid numbers and leading his team to victory with all the injury woes at receiver that he’s had to deal with? Steven Jackson can only be used so much, and the Panthers will surely be all-in to stop the run against the Rams. The injuries are adding up for the Rams, not just in the receiving corps but all over the football team. I’m really surprised at the popularity the Rams are getting with this pick – I’m against the flow here, I’m taking the Panthers.

Carolina Panthers (+3) @ St. Louis Rams

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals Free Football Picks

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals Free Football Picks: I think this game means a lot more to the Bengals as they have a 2-5 start on the line if things go wrong. They are playing at home, where they have been a better football team of late, and Carson Palmer showed signs of life last weekend in his late game comeback attempt against the Falcons. Now if he can just come out accurate from the get-go.

Miami is a team that gives up 4 more points per game than they score. That is not a good sign for a 3-3 team, as eventually that shows up in the win/loss column. They are a running team that is running at a pretty poor clip, and they can pass the ball between the 20s before turning into a nightmare in the red-zone. I like Chad Henne, and he can play well against any defense, he just has to be on target. I think that wildcat formation that the Dolphins made popular is actually hurting the team’s momentum this season, but the coaches did so well with it last season that they can’t give it up. The Dolphins offensive line isn’t as good as it was a season ago, and last time I checked, that’s a pretty big part of blocking a play where the defense is 99% sure it’s a run.

59% of the public likes the Dolphins as a small underdog in Cincinnati. Is that because they are 3-0 on the road this year? Maybe. The Dolphins’ defense is as tough as it’s been in a long time, but I still think the Bengals can run and pass efficiently against it. With more on the line, and being the better team (I think), the Bengals get the nod this week at home.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

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