NCAA Week 5 Pick – Ohio State Buckeyes VS Illinois Fighting Illini

NCAA Week 5 Pick – Ohio State Buckeyes VS Illinois Fighting Illini: Right off the bat I see that 76% of the public likes the Buckeyes to do dirty work in Illinois on Saturday. Now, historically, the Fighting Illini have been a tough road trip for Ohio State – despite being ranked at the top of the college football charts just about every season, the Buckeyes haen’t won in Illinois by more than 10 points since 1998. But you can’t put too much pull on historically speakery, as no doubt this Ohio State team is an elite group while the Fighting Illini lost some big pieces to a bad team. Not a good combo, at least I wouldn’t think so.

Illinois is 2-1, but it’s hard for me to give too much credit to a big win over Southern Illinois and a close win against Northern Illinois. They lost to Missouri to open the season, another team with a good record thus far (4-0) but a team that hasn’t played anyone worth noting.

Ohio State is already battle tested, and they don’t look like the old Buckeye teams that just make sure they win games. Nope, they are destroying teams, putting up more offense by half time than most teams put up all day. Terrelle Pryor is running college football, throwing the ball well and running past defenses as well. Pryor is on the hook for 13 TDs already this season, 10 passing and 3 rushing. He leads the Buckeye’s in rushing – but this is a team that spreads the wealth offensively. 4 players have rushed for over 165 yards while for players have 100+ receiving yards as well.

But it’s all about defense, and the Buckeyes can shut down a 7-11 with their guys. Don’t expect Illinois to score more than 10, but I surely expect the Buckeyes to put up more than 4 touchdowns. That’s a cover, folks.

Ohio State Buckeyes (-17) @ Illinois Fighting Illini

College Week 5 Pick – Temple Owls VS Army Black Knights

College Week 5 Pick – Temple Owls VS Army Black Knights: At Army is a tough place to play, and both of these teams are 3-1, the difference comes down to one team being good and the other team playing Duke, North Texas, and Eastern Michigan to start the season. Does anybody else think that North Texas puts a team together just so other schools will pay them to come in for a beating? I sure do. Anyway, back to these two teams on Saturday – Army’s only loss was to Hawaii, the only respectable team they’ve played (unless you count Duke, please don’t, this isn’t basketball).

Temples only loss of the young season came against Penn State at Penn State, and they lost by just 9, 22-13. The Owls are 3-1 against the spread. They’ve also beaten Connecticut (solid program, though fairly unimpressive this season thus far), Central Michigan (always a solid small school, 2-2 on the season with their only losses to Temple by 3 and Northwestern by 5).

Basically, what I’m getting at here is that Temple isn’t just your normal 3-1 played nobody but North Texas and East West Idaho Tech, ready to get blown away by the competition the rest of the season. This team is going to win a bunch of games, go to a Bowl, and surprise a bunch of people.

So I have them winning at Army, because to do things that I expect them to do, they have to be able to go on the road and beat teams like Army. Army has beaten nobody worth writing home about, so I wont’ mention them. Take the Owls.

Temple Owls (-4) @ Army Black Knights

Miami Hurricanes @ Clemson Tigers Week 5 NCAA Football Pick

Miami Hurricanes @ Clemson Tigers Week 5 NCAA Football Pick: The Clemson Tigers are better than I thought they’d be, which sits in consistent mis-judging trough of most Clemson teams I’ve ever dealt with. Yes, one way or another, the Tigers have surprised me. Sometimes I think they are going to be good, fight for an ACC crown, and sure enough they tumble to the wayside without so much as challenge. Other times I think they are going to struggle all season, but they come out and stun a couple teams early and get me that way. They are out to get me, that much I know.

But Miami is good enough to get them either way. The Hurricanes played terrible three weeks ago at Ohio State, but lost to one of the Nation’s best teams by just 12 points… on the road. They walked into a tough place to play, home of the Pitt Panthers, and spanked them at home on Thursday Night – shutting down their Heisman hopeful running back and putting up 31 points to their field goal. If Miami is on, they can beat anyone in college football. I don’t think the sportsbooks give them that kind of credit.

Kyle Parker has been decent for the Tigers, and the rushing game has been okay (though they only outrushed Presbyterian and North Texas by 120 combined yards) –but this Clemson team does not have an attack like Miami’s. Defensively, the Tigers gave up 424 yards of offense to Auburn, but they also put up 400+ of their own. Running back Andre Ellington busted 22 carries for 140 yards, and Parker threw for 220 and a couple touchdowns. They are no walk in the park, and maybe good value at home in this ACC match-up, but I just see Miami as one of the best teams around, and games like this is where they’ll show it.

Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Clemson Tigers

BYU Cougars VS Utah State Aggies Friday Night Football Pick

BYU Cougars VS Utah State Aggies Friday Night Football Pick: This Thursday Night game started the week favoring the Cougars by 6.5 points but slowly the sports betting public (or maybe the “sharps”) has taken it down all the way to, in most cases, 4 points.

The sportsbooks have to see a couple glaring weaknesses in both teams, but making the offensively inept BYU Cougars cover close to a full touchdown looked to be a little much on 2nd though.

I don’t know, I still think BYU wins by a touchdown or two. Sure, they are 1-3 and their only victory was a home game in which they ousted the mighty Washington Huskies by 6 at home, but can they really be this bad or have they just run into a scheduling buzz-saw early in the season? I’m reaching out to option 2 like it’s some kind of golden apple.

I know Utah State has a couple outcomes that don’t look terrible, their touchdown loss to Oklahoma in Oklahoma makes them tough and their semi-close game with Fresno doesn’t look terrible either – but that 7-41 loss to San Diego State hurts their output in my eyes.

In the end, all of BYU’s losses are to very good teams – Utah State isn’t one of those, so I expect the Cougars to find a win on the road.

BYU Cougars (-4.5) @ Utah State Aggies (Friday Night Game)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Week 4 NFL Pick

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Week 4 NFL Pick: I like the Browns. They play very hard, they play tough against everyone, they have a solid running game with a good offensive line and a defensive line that has some real run-stuffing beasts up front. They are 0-3 but have lost three games by a total of 17 points – never by more than a touchdown. They will break through with a win soon – no doubt, I just don’t think it’s this week.

The Bengals lead just about every single major category (aside from their effectiveness, or lack there of, in the red zone). Points per game, yards gained, offense allowed, possession time, kicking, and fewer penalties – the Browns basically envy to be them – and the funny part, I haven’t seen the Bengals clicking offensively yet this season. Just wait until that happens, then everyone is going to be very, very frightened.

Unfortunately, 75% of people believe exactly what I do – that the Bengals are going to cover. I just think this Cinci offense has to take off one of these Sundays. Doesn’t it? So far, there are lots of targets to go around to the two star receivers, and the running game is picking up as well.

But where the Bengals are going t win is in their secondary. Cleveland will try to run the ball at will, but the Bengals should keep things close to the line of scrimmage. That will leave the Bengals corners in playmaking mode on the outside, all by themselves. Cinci just makes too many turnovers happen, so much so that I expect it every game.

Cleveland isn’t good enough at QB to throw the ball a lot, yet Man-jina continues to try and huck it like he’s got the run-n-shoot going down. The Bengals win by more than a score.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Cleveland Browns

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Free Pick & Prediction

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Free Pick & Prediction: The Panthers are going to be able to run the ball – they might even be able to throw it a little bit. It will come down to turnovers, and yes, there is a good chance the Saints will be able to seduce Jimmy Clausen into throwing one or four bad balls – but can a New Orleans team that has really struggled early be a good bet giving two full touchdowns? I just can’t buy into that, So I’m taking the Panthers.

Now, two thirds of the betting public is riding the Siants here, of course, they are the defending Super Bowl champions. But they are just holding on through three games. They “beat up” the Vikings and won by 5 – hmmm… They took candy from kids, stole change from homeless people, and still got all the luck in the world against the 49ers – and they still needed a last second field goal to pull off the victory. Last week, they finally got some bad luck karma business and failed a 29 yard field goal that ended up losing them the game against the Falcons.

After all has been said and Week 3 has been finished, they are 2-1 and up just 5 total points on the season.

Now the Carolina Panthers have a stupid decision making group as far as offensive play selection is concerned, and that could very well lead to a bad loss – but they have to figure it out sometime, DeAngelo Williams is running well, he just needs to run it more. If they do, and I do, I say they keep this within single digits.

Carolina Panthers (+14) @ New Orleans Saints

Denver Broncos VS Tennessee Titans: Week 4 NFL Free Pick

Denver Broncos VS Tennessee Titans: Week 4 NFL Free Pick: The Denver Broncos have played a lot of close football games over the past season plus, always impressing when they are expected to do poorly – I’d say a 7 point spread on the road suits them just fine at any sportsbook. What I don’t get is why Tennessee would be favored by a full touchdown when their offensive production is questionable at best. Sure, they won easily last week, but they didn’t do much through the air, and I think they’ll have to to cover against the Broncos.

I know that Denver struggles to run the ball and Tennessee is a dominant secondary – but the Broncos find ways to throw the ball instead of running, short screens, outs, slants, stops, picks – the Broncos really throw the ball a lot, like the Eagles and Patriots, and it suits them. I’m not sure the Titans are going to be able to shut that down.

The people like the Titans, and how can they not? Chris Johnson was the best player in football last season and he was a #1 fantasy pick in most drafts – plus, he’s just flat out impressive to watch. But betting on games and covering lines isn’t fantasy – oh no, it’s quite reality-ish. Denver has played well against all types of teams since McD took over, and the Titans just don’t scare me enough, or make me think they should be favored by a touchdown over a solid team.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 4 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Focus

NFL Week 4 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Focus: I was brutal with my elite starters last week, four of them finished outside the top half of their own position, and it’s no wonder that my own fantasy teams didn’t do so hot either. Well, crap burger. My Wife hates that term, I kind of like it. I only use it around here when she’s being a real crap burger, and I constantly use it everywhere else I can get my word usage on. I like these games I play.

For this week, not to forget, folks – there are four teams taking the week off for lack of something worthwhile to do, like play a football game. Those teams are the Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, and we can’t forget the undefeated 3-0 Chiefs of Kansas City. So, don’t be leaving any bye week players in your line-up, you’ve been properly warned.

There are some big match-ups this week: a defensive masterpiece like Baltimore/Pittsburgh and an offensive gun-show like Seattle/St. Louis… Seattle and St. Louis? Those cities still have NFL teams? In the same division? Both are 2 and 1? Get the crap burger out of there! More to come, enjoy!!!

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week, looking for Top 5 at their position.

1. Chris Johnson – The Broncos should pray, maybe it will help them tackle Chris Johnson on Sunday.
2. Aaron Rodgers – Detroit… That’s all.
3. Randy Moss – If Jason Allen has trouble guarding Braylon Edwards, he should injure himself in practice this week…
4. Mike Vick– Nobody has been playing awesome as Michael, Washington is ranked 30 in pass D.
5. Brandon Marshall – Not being ranked here for what he did last week, but for what Chad Henne did to the Patriots late last season.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week.

1. Pierre Thomas – PT should get ample opportunities to exploit the Panthers weak defense.
2. Terrell Owens– The targets are there, I think TO makes the most of them this week.
3. Joseph Addai – Addai has to play against the Jaguars this weekend, I mean gets to.
4. Beanie Wells- San Diego has been good against the run, but 22 carries for this beanie baby doesn’t seem fair.
5. Matt Ryan–Ryan has a real opportunity to be great, the 49ers have obliged to plenty opposing quarterbacks’ wants all season thus far. Why stop now when it’s un-working so well?

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Louis Murphy – Houston is a run-stuff unit, but the airways are open.
2. Michael Crabtree –Crab has been dropped in recent weeks, might be a good time to pick him up!
3. Lee Evans– Yet to have a great week, the Jets could provide that opportunity for Lee to get deep once or twice.
4. Lance Moore– In my 3 for Thursday article, I said Lance would flourish. He will/is as we speak.
5. Clinton Portis – CP was well on his way to a good week before his wrist slowed him down – against Philly I think he approaches 100 yards.

Super Sleepers: Undrafted guys that are usually unowned, but in a pinch put ‘em in coach!

1. David Garrard– Unless he really is this bad, things are bound to turn around – he’s always been better at home than on the road, this is the time, David!
2. Donald Brown- With Addai hurting a bit, and the Colts bound to be leading the Jaguars, Brown could get significant touches.
3. Sam Bradford– Sam was worth every bit of that #1 overall pick, he’ll show a blah Hawks secondary what he can do as a young buck. I expect a Top 15 finish for Sam.
4. Devery Henderson – The Panthers seem like a perfect game for Devery to get lost a couple times.
5. Jacoby Jones-  #2 and #3 receivers can exploit the Raiders, especially when they are as fast as Jones.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Steve Smith– I hope for me that I am wrong here, but the Saints are smarter than to late Steve Smith beat them, right?
2. Andre Johnson– Nnamdi will be on Johnson all day, and AJ isn’t all healthy – Foster will run many times, I just don’t see a big day for the best receiver in football.
3. Mark Sanchez – No need to pass on Buffalo, it’s a tough job and if you can run they are easy to handle.
4. Kyle Orton– Tennessee makes everyone run to beat them – Denver can’t run, so Orton is in trouble.
5. Matt Forte– If I’m the Giants I’m taking away the dumps and making Jay Cutler play with fire down the middle of the field – I think they just might listen to me and make Forte’s value drop.

***Week Four dances without Cowboys, Bucs, Chiefs, and Vikings – but with everyone else!***

Okay, I’m back in business this week – we have a lot of very similar picks in the QB/RB/TE positions – but there are enough differences to separate one from another – especially in WRs and DSTs. Well, I have a good group of different tastes than the rest, but what’s new, I’m bowling for Championships here.

Week 4 QB Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Peyton Manning	Aaron Rodgers	Aaron Rodgers	Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers	Drew Brees	Michael Vick	Michael Vick
Drew Brees	Peyton Manning	Phillip Rivers	Tom Brady
Mike Vick	Phillip Rivers	Peyton Manning	Phillip Rivers
Phillip Rivers	Tom Brady	Chad Henne	Peyton Manning

Week 4 RB Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Chris Johnson	Arian Foster	Michael Turner	Chris Johnson
Frank Gore	Maurice Jones Drew	Chris Johnson	Michael Turner
Matt Forte	Joseph Addai	Arian Foster	Frank Gore
Maurice Jones Drew	Chris Johnson	Pierre Thomas	Arian Foster
Justin Forsett	LaDainian Tomlinson	Ryan Matthews	Pierre Thomas

Week 4 WR Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
DeSean Jackson	Reggie Wayne	Greg Jennings	Brandon Marshall
Brandon Marshall	Andre Johnson	Jeremy Maclin	Santana Moss
Greg Jennings	Wes Welker	Wes Welker	Randy Moss
Kevin Walter	Roddy White	Reggie Wayne	Reggie Wayne
Austin Collie	Brandon Marshall	Marques Colston	Malcom Floyd

Week 4 TE Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Antonio Gates	Jermichael Finley	Antonio Gates	Dallas Clark
Dallas Clark	Tony Gonzalez	Dallas Clark	Jermichael Finley
Vernon Davis	Antonio Gates	Jermichael Finley	Chris Cooley
Greg Olsen	Dallas Clark	Tony Gonzalez	Antonio Gates
Aaron Hernandez	Dustin Keller	Zach Miller	Tony Gonzalez

Week 4 DST Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Jets	Jets	Jets	Bears
Packers	Ravens	Steelers	Packers
Bengals	Packers	Packers	Jets
Chargers	Saints	Saints	Saints
Saints	Steelers	Bengals	Bengals

Who could we have missed on?

QB: One bad week and everyone’s off of Matt Schaub. I know Nnamdi is a great corner, but Schaub has a couple weapons in Houston, he could still torch the rest of the Raiders.

RB: Even though Peyton Hillis did 140+ yards of damage to the Steelers last week, nobody is betting on Rashard Mendenhal to carry for big points on Sunday – I think he could be great.

WR: Nobody picked Anquan Boldin, Calvin Johnson, or Larry Fitzgerald. Those are three great players, though stuck in tough match-ups, that could easily out offense the great defense and have big weeks.

TE: Jeremy Shockey; It’s tough to pass up the likes of Gates, Clark, Finley, Gonzo, and Keller/Davis/Cooley- but without Reggie Bush, Shockey will see more targets – could that move him into the Top 5? Very possible.

DEF: Nobody took the Colts, but how bad have the Jaguars been lately? You’d think they were in the NFC West with the way they’ve been playing the last couple weeks. Pathetic.