Miami Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers: ESPN Thursday Night Football

As I said in my newsletter that went out on Wednesday, crazy things can happen on Thursday Night, and there’s not doubt that history is on the side of the home team (especially the underdogs at home) on the weeknights. Yet, knowing that, here I am picking the Miami Hurricanes to bust back into the fray after losing to Ohio State last time out.

First and foremost, the Pittsburgh Panthers are in no way a bad team – I just happen to think Miami is one of the better groups in the Nation. Sure, Ohio State ousted them in prime time, and everyone has that locked freshly in their memories – but Miami did everything they could to lose that game and they still came out just 12 points back when all was said, done, and the clocks set to zero.

Miami had 4 turnovers (all Harris interceptions) to Ohio State’s zero. Miami moved the ball almost as well as Ohio State, even converting 7 of 15 3rd downs compared to the Buckeyes’ 33%. Those 4 interceptions aren’t happening again any time soon – Jacory Harris is much too good to do that on a normal basis. Miami’s running back, Damien Berry, is better than he gets credit for, and he should torment the Pitt Panther front 7. Harris will do the rest of the tormenting, and one of the Nation’s quickest defenses will be up to the task of slowing Pitt.

#19 Miami Hurricanes (-3) @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Atlanta Falcons VS New Orleans Saints: Free Week 3 NFL Pick

Okay, there are a couple ways to look at the Saints – either A, they are unbelievably lucky – we’re talking Lady Gaga is a millionaire type stuff here, rabbit feet wearing horse shoes with gold potted end of the damn rainbow shoe laces twisted and woven with all the 4-leaf clovers in the universe lucky. Or B, every team they play is unlucky and suffering from all the bad karma that should be going to Yankee fans. Like I said, there are two ways to look at the Saints. I choose to be a good man, a well rounded individual, and look at them from both perspectives – it’s tough, but I manage. But no matter which camera I peer into, I still see the same thing – my least favorite team of all time.

Yeah, any team that kicks a ball out of bounds with a returning player running out of bounds to catch it that gets bobbled but lands 3 inches from the sideline (headed out of bounds) and bounces back right into a players arms that just happened to be running then diving at the speed of light but still managed to grab the ball is a team I just can’t buy into. They might be using magic.

So I hate them, that’s clear, but here I am betting on them. Why? Because they are also good. Better to be lucky than good, they say, what about the luckiest and still good? Evilness – that’s all there is to it.

Without Reggie Bush, things change for the Saints – sure, more than people know. Reggie opens up so much for this team, which is probably why, despite being the team’s #2 RB, they kept him for nearly 10 million bones. Well, Reggie is out, but this team is still good. I don’t think the Falcons, who are improved defensively this season, can put the kind of pressure on Brees to limit his downfield scan-time.

Lord knows I’ll be rooting like all gettyup for the Falcons to pull one out on the road, but unless the Saints tumble from their lucky 7′s spot at the slot machine,that’s not going to happen. Matt Ryan will get plenty of rush from the Saints’ blitz-happy system, and New Orleans will get triple-deflection interception-touchdowns that will be that.

The Saints haven’t played well offensively yet – so you can bet your balls that’s going to change sooner or later – my predictions is sooner.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-4)

Week 3 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Focus

Alright, nearly every single one of my fantasy teams (yeah, did you expect anything else, I own a few) lost last week. All except one, a league where only points are tallied, and I happened to win the week in that one. Anyway, all head to head leagues ended in a loss, and the bad part was that I was a Top 5 point scorer in every single league. Killing me. But that’s the luck of the draw, sometimes when you win you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win- and sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose – or something like that (look up Gloria in White Men Can’t Jump, she’ll tell Billy Hoyle, and he can tell you). This week I’m all about winning – here’s how we hug it out on The Fantasy Focus, Week 3 edition.

“If you are new to LuckyLester.com’s Fantasy Focus, this is how it works…
Every week I’ll list a plethora of starting options categorized into four groups; Elite Starters, Solid Starters, Sleeper Starters, and now Super Sleeper Starters. I’ll list my top 5 at each spot. The titles speak for themselves. Also, I have 5 guys I’d bench – and these aren’t normally terrible players.

At the end of the article, the LuckyLester staff will list their Top 5 players at each position (sans kicker, because, well, we don’t rank kickers – we have better things to do like shoot spit-wads at cars through our window. Yep. At the beginning of the next week (Tuesday or Wednesday) we get out the Review – always a good time to take credit, and blame for the things we said.”

Here’s what I think about Week 3….

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week, looking for Top 5 at their position.

1. Matt Schaub – Because the Cowboys have struggled, but are great against the run.
2. Adrian Peterson– DETROIT is in town. Yep. Sold.
3. LeSean McCoy – Vick knows how to rely on McCoy, and the young Pitt back is doing work.
4. Andre Johnson– I know the Cowboys are solid defensively, but AJ isn’t to be stopped.
5. Miles Austin – Tough to go away from this guy after a couple huge weeks in a row.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week.

1. Mike Sims-Walker – I see the big Jaguar WR having another great week in Week 3.
2. Terrell Owens– Hasn’t done much but against Carolina I like his chances of being Top 25.
3. Darren McFadden – This is the guy Oakland drafted in the Top 5, good match-up for him, too.
4. Matt Forte – Matt Forte catches so many dump downs that he’s a great option in PPRs.
5. Mike Vick– He’s going to be solid as long as he’s doing what he’s doing – against anyone. Freak.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Eddie Royal – Firmly out of his sophomore slump, the speedy wideout will catch 6-10 balls.
2. Jon Stewart –Even in his back-up role, this week he’ll get at least 15 touches – Top 25 RB.
3. Johnny Knox– Had 160+ yards and a touchdown in 2 games against GB last season.
4. Austin Collie– If Champ plays, I really like Collie – if he doesn’t well, not the worst option you could have.
5. Felix Jones– He’s dropped off the charts this season, but his yard per carry average has always been amazing, I think he catches up this week, even against a tough defense.

Super Sleepers: Undrafted guys that are usually unowned, but in a pinch put ‘em in coach!

1. Jason Avant– Vick likes to go to Avant, he trusts him, and I think that gets Jason double digits this week.
   
2. Darius Heyward-Bey– Might be crazy to predict a Raider-receiver to do well, let alone this guy, but against Arizona I think his size comes in handy.
3. Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis – With Faulk out with a did ACL, Green-Ellis could get 10 more snaps per game. That could be good if you need a last ditch effort.
4. TJ Houshmandzadeh – This is the game Housh has his first big one for his new team.
5. Aaron Hernandez-  I like the Bills’ corners, so I think Brady attacks via the TE.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Arian Foster– He’s averaging 30 points a week – but I don’t think he gets past 15 this week. If you’re happy with that, keep him in, if you have an option you like more, bench him.
2. Steve Smith– I’m not putting my sitting Steve on Claussen, I like Jimmy more than Moore, I just don’t think Cincinnati allows Steve to beat them, less than 12 fantasy points.
3. Josh Freeman – Two good weeks for Josh, meet the Steelers = two good weeks and one bad one.
4. Larry Fitzgerald– He’s averaging 14, he’ll be lucky if he gets half that while getting shut down by Nnamdi Asomugha.
5. Jamaal Charles– I just don’t see a big day against the 49ers, but he’s always one run away…

***Week three, look into the stats and you will see, the winner of this week is me!***

The luck of the Saints, and the subsequent unluck of the me, did me in last week. Not this week, oh no, the Saints luck has to run out one of these days. So far, just two weeks in, there have been 3 winners: Red Ryan and myself (Lucky Lester) shared victory in Week 1, and Week 2 saw Josh Arsenault (follow his football musing @AlaskanArse on twitter) snatch victory from the hands of second place. So everyone has a win, everyone besides the old me – but he’s always told me he’s a Week 3 warrior – we’ll see…

Week 3 QB Predictions

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Peyton Manning	Peyton Manning	Brett Favre	Matt Schaub
Matt Schaub	Drew Brees	Michael Vick	Phillip Rivers
Tony Romo	Tom Brady	Tom Brady	Tony Romo
Drew Brees	Michael Vick	Phillip Rivers	Aaron Rodgers
Joe Flacco	Phillip Rivers	Matt Schaub	Donovan McNabb

Week 3 RB Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Adrian Peterson	Adrian Peterson	Adrian Peterson	Adrian Peterson
Chris Johnson	Chris Johnson	Chris Johnson	LeSean McCoy
Ahmad Bradshaw	Ray Rice	Darren McFadden	Rashard Mendenhall
Pierre Thomas	LeSean McCoy	Frank Gore	Ray Rice
Darren McFadden	Frank Gore	LeSean McCoy	Chris Johnson

Week 3 WR Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Andre Johnson	Randy Moss	Andre Johnson	Andre Johnson
Reggie Wayne	Roddy White	Miles Austin	Miles Austin
Miles Austin	Anquan Boldin	Chad Ochocinco	Wes Welker
Randy Moss	Andre Johnson	Roddy White	DeSean Jackson
Santana Moss	Chad Ochocinco	Marques Colston	Malcom Floyd

Week 3 TE Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Antonio Gates	Dallas Clark	Vernon Davis	Dallas Clark
Dallas Clark	Vernon Davis	Dallas Clark	Jermichael Finley
Visanthe Shiancoe	Chris Cooley	Jermichael Finley	Chris Cooley
Chris Cooley	Antonio Gates	Visanthe Shiancoe	Visanthe Shiancoe
Vernon Davis	Jermichael Finley	Zach Miller	Antonio Gates

Week 3 DST Projections

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Steelers	Ravens	Packers	Steelers
Ravens	49ers	Buccaneeers	Bengals
Eagles	Steelers	Bengals	Ravens
49ers	Chargers	Ravens	Dolphins
Patriots	Jets	Steelers	Vikings

Who do I think we could have missed?

QB: Jay Cutler, not the biggest fan of Jay, but he looks to be lighting up the airways, yet he was a forgotten man in our Top 5 – like always, he could have a huge day.
RB: Matt Forte, still nobody believes in this guy. I know the Packers run-D is tough, but he catches a lot of balls out of the backfield and he’s a very talented receiving option. We play PPR here, so I have to wonder what it takes to rank this guy in the Top 5. (Runner up, Jahvid Best, TD machine thus far)
WR: Hakeem Nicks, I know the Titans have a tough defense, but Nicks is a special cat that will get open against that secondary – Eli can’t be that bad for two games in a row, right?
TE: Kellen Winslow, always one of the most dangerous TEs on the field.
DEF: Washington Redskins, they could have a big shutdown fest against the Rams.

Fantasy Focus REVIEW: Week 2 Fantasy Football Review

Josh Arsenault won the weeks’ Fantasy Focus, for his insight on the fantasy world, and many other things, follow him on twitter – @AlaskanArse. You can follow me as well, every once in a while I’ll say something witty – and besides that I like to dish out my thoughts on in-game stuff when I get a chance. Check it out.

“If you are new to LuckyLester.com’s Fantasy Focus, this is how it works…
Every week I’ll list a plethora of starting options categorized into four groups; Elite Starters, Solid Starters, Sleeper Starters, and now Super Sleeper Starters. I’ll list my top 5 at each spot. The titles speak for themselves. Also, I have 5 guys I’d bench – and these aren’t normally terrible players.

At the end of the article, the LuckyLester staff will list their Top 5 players at each position (sans kicker, because, well, we don’t rank kickers – we have better things to do like shoot spit-wads at cars through our window. Yep. At the beginning of the next week (Tuesday or Wednesday) we get out the Review – always a good time to take credit, and blame for the things we said.”

And now the Review…

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week, looking for Top 5 at their position.

1. Drew Brees – Very mediocre day for Brees, still finished tied for 11th amongst QBs. B-
2. Rashard Mendenhall– WRONG. Just 7 fantasy points for the Steeler RB. F
3. Chris Johnson – WRONG. Matching my Mendenhall pick, CJ got 7 points. F
4. Andre Johnson– 33 fantasy points for Andre, best of all WRs, #1. A+
5. Phillip Rivers – Tied for 4th amongst QBs, not a bad day for the angry Chargers. A-

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week.

1. Ahmad Bradshaw – Poor play calling early put the Giants behind, only 8 points for AB. D-
2. LeSean McCoy– Only Best (51) and Snelling (40) finished with more fantasy points at RB than McCoy who tallied 36. A+
3. Santana Moss – Moss finished with 18 fantasy points, good for 12th amongst WRs. A-
4. Jabar Gaffney – Eddie Royal wasn’t out, Demaryius Thomas was in, Gaffney had 3 points. F
5. Mike Vick– I said I couldn’t pick 7 guys I’d rather have than Vick, well he finished in a tie for 6th, so I couldn’t be more right. 5 of the 6 guys ahead of him went by the names of Rivers, Manning, Cutler, Rodgers, and Schaub – the last guy was Shaun Hill – yeah, that Shaun Hill. A

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Mike Williams (TB) –Tied for 25th, Mike Williams caught another touchdown. B+
2. Laurent Robinson – Out of the Top 100… never a good thing when #100 got a fantasy point. F
3. Jeremy Maclin– Maclin finished with a touchdown and 30 something yards, not too shabby, not amazing. B-
4. Justin Forsett– Forsett continues to play better than his carries, he had 8 for 44, but only 5 points. I’m not sure if I deserve the D or the Seahawks. D
5. Michael Bush– Bush was out in Week 2. F

Super Sleepers: Undrafted guys that are usually unowned, but in a pinch put ‘em in coach!

1. Fred Taylor – One fantasy point, the running back carousel didn’t land on Taylor in Week 2. F
2. Mark Sanchez– I predicted Top 16, but he bested me finishing in a tie for 6th with 22 points. A+
3. Josh Freeman – 19 fantasy points for the super sophomore, good for 11th amongst QBs. A+
4. Legedu Naanee – Naanee didn’t get squat on Sunday, the down follows his up. F
5. Jacoby Jones-  Tied for 12th with 18 fantasy points. You bet. A+

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Donald Driver– 25th WR overall, not a bad day, solid play, I expected less. C-
2. Pierre Thomas– Thomas had just 46 yards on 18 carries, but with Bush out with a broken leg, he caught 8 balls for 57 yards. That sure moved my grade lower. D
3. Knowshon Moreno – Boy you can be wrong when you’re right – that’s for sure. 24 carries for 51 yards for Moreno, a terrible day, but he scored and he grabbed 4 balls for 67 yards, making him a Top 10 fantasy back in Week 2. Gross. F
4. Cedric Benson– I had this one right, Benson didn’t do terrible 78 rushing yards, but he needed 23 carries to do so, and didn’t acquire any other stats. B+
5. Jay Cutler– I said he’d finish outside of the Top 15, he finished 4th, 8 points ahead of Alex Smith (who finished 15th). Whoops. F

***Week two, without further ado, pee or poo, our picks for you! Elephant.***

Well, what happened this week? The luck of the Damned Saints – I’m telling you, that team steals it all!!! Okay, so I picked a bunch of poop this week, a couple guys really killed me. I would have surely finished higher on the RB charts if Ryan Matthews didn’t go down real early. After that, I really have nothing. Arse rode his 2nd best all the way to the Championship this week, taking the top spot while finishing 2nd in QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs – his defensive victory clinched the deal. Ryan took 2nd place, but he finished #1 at QBs and RBs, and he’s on his game this year – he must be studying the site… Papa got me by a couple points, but we were working together in destroying our good name. Next week will be a different story – here are the final rankings.

Week 2 QB Final Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 1	Josh Arsenault 2	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 3
Aaron Rodgers 2	Carson Palmer 24	Drew Brees 11	Drew Brees 11
Phillip Rivers 5	Aaron Rodgers 2	Michael Vick 6	Phillip Rivers 5
Matt Ryan 11	Peyton Manning 3	Brett Favre 32	Matt Schaub 1
Matt Schaub 1	Phillip Rivers 5	Phillip Rivers 5	Joe Flacco 28
Peyton Manning 3	Micheal Vick 6	Donovan McNabb 9	Peyton Manning 3

Week 2 RB Final Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 1	Josh Arsenault 2	Papa Weimer 3	Lucky Lester 4
Steven Jackson 10	Steven Jackson 10	Chris Johnson 33	Rash. Mendenhall 33
Adrian Peterson 5	Frank Gore 4	Ray Rice 13	Chris Johnson 33
DeAngelo Williams 25	Jamaal Charles 33	Maur. Jones-Drew 57	Ahmad Bradshaw 31
Chris Johnson 33	DeAngelo Williams 25	Steven Jackson 10	Steven Jackson 10
LeSean McCoy 3	Brandon Jackson 25	LeSean McCoy 3	Ryan Matthews 50

Week 2 WR Final Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 3	Josh Arsenault 2	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 1
Andre Johnson 1	Roddy White 9	Marques Colston 34	Andre Johnson 1
Greg Jennings 62	Anquan Boldin 51	Miles Austin 4	Marques Colston 34
Steve Smith (CAR) 15	Larry Fitzgerald 20	Calvin Johnson 15	Reggie Wayne 7
Wes Welker 20	Wes Welker 20	Roddy White 9	Santana Moss 12
Roddy White 9	Andre Johnson 1	Percy Harvin 47	Wes Welker 20

Week 2 TE Final Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 4	Josh Arsenault 3	Papa Weimer 1	Lucky Lester 4
Dallas Clark 3	Dallas Clark 3	Jermichael Finley 7	Antonio Gates 2
Antonio Gates 2	Antonio Gates 2	Dallas Clark 3	Jermichael Finley 7
Vernon Davis 9	Vernon Davis 9	Chris Cooley 6	Chris Cooley 6
Visanthe Shiancoe 7	Visanthe Shiancoe 7	Antonio Gates 2	Brent Celek 24
Zach Miller 19	John Carlson 18	Jason Witten 13	Dallas Clark 3

Week 2 DST Final Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 3	Josh Arsenault 1	Papa Weimer 2	Lucky Lester 4
Packers 4	Eagles 24	Packers 4	Steelers 1
Eagles 24	Packers 4	Buccaneeers 4	Ravens 18
Vikings 10	Jets 12	Browns 18	Eagles 24
Ravens 18	Steelers 1	Ravens 18	Chiefs 7
Chargers 4	TItans 10	Broncos 12	Saints 15

Week 2s Writer Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 2	Josh Arsenault 1	Papa Weimer 3	Lucky Lester 4
1.QBs 1	1.QBs 2	1.QBs 4	1.QBs 3
2.RBs 1	2.RBs 2	2.RBs 3	2.RBs 4
3.WRs 3	3.WRs 2	3.WRs 4	3.WRs 1
4.TEs 3	4.TEs 2	4.TEs 1	4.TEs 4
5.DST 3	5.DST 1	5.DST 2	5.DST 4

Who’d we miss?

QB: Jay Cutler (again, this time ranked 4) and Shaun Hill (6) were the only guys unpicked.
RB: Jahvid Best (1), Jason Snelling (2), and Mike Tolbert (6) went unchosen (I know, unchosen is not a word, but it should be) by us.
WR: Kevin Walter (2), DeSean Jackson (3), Mike Sims-Walker (4), and Demaryius Thoms (6) were all left off our Top 5 list for WRs this week.
TE: Dustin Keller (1), Brandon Petitgrew (4), and Aaaron Hernandez (5) didn’t get picked either.
DEF: The Colts (2) and the Dolphins (3) both went unpicked by us fantasy “experts” – so much for that.