Ask Papa Weimer: NFL Week 3 Fantasy Advice

My fantasy teams are getting kicked around in the first couple weeks of the season, but hey, that’s okay, I’ve seen it happen before and I’ve come out alive. Back in 1989 I started the season 0-6 before climbing back like a damned mountain goat and taking the title from the unsuspecting Carl’s in my fantasy league. These days there are just more dinks to take players from, and I suspect you should. Here’s some advice going forward…

Vernon in Tennessee got a trade offer, “Ok I got another tough one. I have Frank Gore and I have just been offer a trade for him for MJD. I like them both but MJD isn’t looking to good and Gore looks great. What do you think?”

Don’t trade Gore, i love MJD, but I think Gore will be great all year. I don’t know how the Seahawks bundled up the big running back from San Francisco, but I don’t expect many teams to duplicate that task this season. Frank runs real hard, he’s going to catch at least 60 balls, and if he stays healthy he’s a lock for the Top 5 – the only way you get rid of a guy like that is if someone offers you AP or Chris Johnson in return. Listen, I am one of MJD’s biggest fans, always have been, but he is in a bad spot in Jacksonville. I keep waiting for them to get better, stronger, more efficient in the running game – but it just hasn’t happened. I don’t see them being ahead too often this year, and MJD hasn’t been healthy this season. It’s hard to get healthy when you are carrying a load every week. I think you’re in safe hands with Frank – and I’d stay there.

P-Witty in Bean Town says, Jimmy Claussen is now the guy in Carolina, so I’m thinking about trading away DeAngelo because I expect a roller coaster season with the rookie calling the shots, who should I target?

To answer your question of who to target, here are some guys I like that might have DeAngelo value in some circles… LeSean McCoy (think he’ll have a Brian Westbrook type season), Maurice Jones-Drew (I still like Drew, and think he should get it going soon, and he’s scored less than D-Lo, so someone might be freaking out), Pierre Thomas (a good guy to target right now before he has a full week as the lone-star running back in New Orleans) – those are three guys I like to add because either A- some owners don’t trust what they’ve done so far (McCoy) or B- I think they’ll be much better than they’ve been.

But to be honest, I think you should keep Williams and either trade him when his value is higher, or just ride him out. I actually think DeAngelo will be better with Claussen. Why? Because with Claussen, the stupid Panthers’ play caller, whomever he may be, will pull his head out of his ass and run the ball more. They did it last year when Moore came in to replace Delhomme, and they’ll do it this year, too. They’ve been passing the ball way too much when the game is close. I would probably wait to trade Williams – at least see what he does this week – even against a very tough Cincinnati defense. But I guess if you can get good value, he does go up against a couple tough defenses the next couple weeks – I’ve just always thought the Panthers could run on anyone if they would just call run plays. With Claussen, I think they will.

Dan in Indianapolis writes, “I’m thinking of trading Anquan Boldin and Brandon Jackson to get Roddy White, what do you think?”

I actually like Anquan Boldin – I think he will be solid all year, but if you’re worried about Flacco’s first couple weeks, I understand the trade. I just think Joe will figure it out soon, here, and light up the airways – remember, this team actaully threw a lot last year, and I think they’ll keep chucking it. I just don’t know if I’d give up Jackson (who is currently the starter on a good offense) and Boldin, for White, who has his ups and downs as well. But I’d rather have White than Boldin, if just by a little bit. So if all you’re looking for is an upgrade, I think you’re getting it.

Dave in Minnesota asks, “Will Demaryius Thomas, Earl Bennett, Tolbert, Josh Morgan, or Brandon Lloyd be worth picking up?”

I really like Aromoshadu, and I think last week’s benching was a bit of a heads up for him, more than a season long thing – so I would think he’ll be back in the swing of things soon in chicago, making Earl Bennett undesirable – but I could be wrong. LLoyd is okay, but he’s trumped by the upside of his young teammate. Thomas is my favorite of the bunch you mentioned. Josh Morgan is an interesting case, I’ve always liked the Virginia Tech guy (i think that’s where he’s from) and he could be good- but he’s going to be in a run first offense with at least two receiving options ahead of him (Vernon Davis, Crabtree) and three if you count Gore. I like Tolbert, always have, not sure how many looks he’ll get but he runs like everyone wishes Brandon Jacobs would run. As far as handcuffs go, he’s one I would actually own, because he’ll produce something every week and some weeks could be huge. I would rank D. Thomas as #1 of the guys you listed.

Billy from Philadelphia writes, “Hey Papa, last year you gave some good advice about survivor/suicide picks – I know it’s early, but better early than late for your advice, who are your top 3 picks this week? (That way I will surely have an option).”

New England at home against Buffalo is stealing candy from a baby. The Patriots are always a good bet coming off a loss, especially one where they were so useless in the 2nd half (like last week). But this is even better. While the Bills do have a nice secondary to match up with Moss, Welker, and the boys, there is no way they score more points than the Patriots. Free survivor pick of the week… New England.

Minnesota at home against the Lions – If you haven’t taken the Vikings yet, and you probably haven’t (because you’re still alive) I think they are a great bet to turn it around this week. Heck, even if they played like they have the last two weeks, I still think they walk away with a win against Detroit. And I expect them to play better. It’s ballsy, but hey, what are you if you’re not that?

Cincinnati on the road at Carolina – that’s my only road pick. I like to stay away from road games in survivor, if only because fewer road teams win, it’s just the way it is. But I can’t see how Carolina would win this one. They have a bad defense and Cincinnati has a good one. They have a rookie QB and a coach that hates running the ball when he should. If you’re in a bind, I like the Bengals to oust the Panthers.

NFL Free Picks Review for Week 2 2010 Football Predictions

NFL Free Picks Review for Week 2 2010 Football Predictions: 7-8-1 in Week 2, but I blame the luck of New Orleans – okay, I know, my Saints pick lost, but those bastards are stealing all the good luck from all over the world right now. Kids are wishing on stars and getting nothing, people are blowing out birthday candles and their wishes are disappearing into thin air, one dude actually found the end of the rainbow and a leprechaun kicked him right in the nuts and ran off – and he didn’t even need to take the pot of gold, because Drew Brees already stole it. Every clover with a forth leaf just disintegrated. Rabbits no longer have feet. These Saints are ridiculous. My hate grows with every waking hour. Here’s the Review….

Buffalo Bills (+13.5) @ Green Bay Packers (LOSS)
I didn’t take into account how good the Packers are or how bad the Bills are. Either way, Buffalo has named a new quarterback, and I will reconsider going for the bills, plus anything.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans (WIN)
The Steelers were the better team. Fumbles, a broken quarterback, Charlie Batch’s 49 year old arse in to save the game – and the Titans still couldn’t win. What can you say? The Steelers are better.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns (-1) (LOSS)
I don’t know, this one was a coin toss – and Eric Man-Jina is always wrong. How can you have Seneca Wallace throw the ball more than you run? The game was always close. Dumb.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Carolina Panthers (WIN)
The Bucs have something – I don’t quite know what it is or how much I’d depend on it, but they have something. The Panthers have a dead-end coach, a dead-end quarterback, and an offensive coordinator that has not a clue what to do with a running game so potent and a passing game so bad. Steve Smith, I feel for you.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2) (WIN)
It was a lot tighter than it had to be, but the Ravens defense is just that good. The Bengals ended up winning, but this one was on Joe Flacco – he reincarnated Jake Delhomme, Brett Favre’s bad days, and Ryan Leaf on Sunday (yes I know, none of those guys are dead) – and the Ravens still almost won.

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings (-5) (LOSS)
I put a little too much trust in the Vikings I guess, I still think it’s play calling that’s killing the purple people eaters. Defensively, they weren’t bad – they got a lot of help with turnovers, but that offense still couldn’t capitalize. They needed two yards to win the game, but that was one yard too much to ask.

Chicago Bears (+8.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (WIN)
How ‘bout dem Bears? The Cowboys couldn’t score, and Tony Romo and the rest of the turnovers had a tough time of it at home. But I think they’ll turn it around.

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) (WIN)
This one was as easy as it gets, all I needed was Mike Turner to complete my day by being a fantasy monster, but no, nothing can be perfect, and Jason Snelling got all the love.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions (LOSS)
The luck of the Saints strikes again. This game was a walk-away win, but the Lions not only scored with minutes dwindling down, but they jumped on an onside kick and almost got into field goal position for the tie. Tie-shmy, I still lost.

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-3) (WIN)
Shooting seagulls in a barrel. Easy.

St. Louis Rams @ Oakland Raiders (-3.5) (LOSS)
The Raiders won, that part I got right, but the Rams made it a game with 3 minutes left, scoring a late touchdown to get it within 2. Those last minute scores were not good for me on Sunday.

New England Patriots (-2) @ New York Jets (LOSS)
The Jets got the Patriots. I’m not sure what offense was on the field in the 2nd half, but I don’t think it was the Patriots. It will be interesting to see how bad they take that out on the Bills next week.

Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins (+3) (PUSH)
Unbelievable. Up 17 in the 2nd half, you think your +3 bet is pretty safe at that point. Then the luck of the Saints comes in and steals away all your luck, and the best you can do is a push. The Redskins have no rushing attack, so I have a feeling they are going to struggle to close out games in which they are ahead late. Just a hunch.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (-8) (WIN)
The Chargers destroyed a bad Jaguars team. I was right to go against the Jaguars, because anytime they fly it’s a nightmare, and from Jacksonville to San Diego is a long-ass buss ride.

New York Giants (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (LOSS)
Manning, the elder brother, looked pretty damn good on Sunday Night Football. The baby brother looked like a pile of right handed linemen throwing left handed go-routes. Bad. That bad? Yes. I thought they’d run it all night, the Giants, but I should have known that with a super star like Eli, they’d want to win by proving he could throw like Peyton. He can’t. They didn’t. I didn’t either… Blast.

New Orleans Saints (-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (LOSS)
I needed this one badly to get over .500 for the week, but how could I possibly do that with the luck of the Saints on my side? I hope everybody saw that game with as much hate as I did. The luck they had to get victory almost made me lose my dinner, and my dinner was very plain and wholesome. When the 49ers were driving, I just knew they’d score and miss the 2point conversion – the luckiest team in the world would win and I’d still lose my bet. But oh no, even worse, the 49ers ended up tying it after a bad ref call was reversed, and then the Saints walked down the field and won with a field goal. Hate. They win by 3, I lose by 2, I go 7-8-1 for my first losing week of the season. Week 2. The Saints can’t steal all the luck forever, oh no, that luck is going to leave that team soon enough, and when it does, I’ll be here to collect!