Don’t SLEEP on Me: A New Fantasy Sleeper Article

This may be a different kind than you are used to, but it’s still a  sleeper article. I’m not putting together your normal run of the mill sleeper piece here, I’m taking a guy and where he is normally drafted, and giving you two options that I like more – always two guys that are getting drafted after that player. (One time I give you three guys I like more) So, they are sleepers – sort of. If the masses take one guy in the 2nd round, and I’m picking two guys drafted in the 4th round that should out-produce that guy, then they are great value picks – or people are “sleeping” on them. It kind of works, right?

For example, last year a lot of people were taking Jay Cutler higher than Donovan McNabb and Matt Schaub – I said, hey, these two guys are going to be better than Cutler, and you can get them later. Wallah! They both ended up as better picks than Jay. This year, I have some more tidbits for your enjoyment! I’m using a major fantasy site’s numbers for my ADP (average draft position).

And why not start with the one and only…..

1. Chad Ochocinco (ADP 41): First of all, the guy was a lot better when his last name was Johnson. Now he’s going to compete for touches with TO, a guy that might be better for Cincinnati’s offense. Listen, there’s no doubt Chad can be good again, but he was inconsistent on a week-to-week basis when he was piling up nice numbers – now hat Cinci is a run-first (and second for that matter) team, don’t draft him just for the name. He’s getting picked 41st overall right now. Instead, I’d go with one of these two guys in the next round or later…

———-Mike Sims-Walker (ADP 53): I’d rather have Sims-Walker right now. If I had the 41st pick and Mike and Chad were the only two guys left, I’d take MSW in a heartbeat. He’s younger, and more of a physical freak than Chad – especially now. He’s the sure-thing #1 receiver and proved last season that he could handle #1 corners. He’ll be better this season because the entire Jaguars offense will be better, offensive line especially. If you’re at the top of the draft, and Chad is there late in the 4th round – pick a running back or a top flight quarterback, and wait until the way back in the 5th round and get MSW.

———-Johnny Knox (ADP 119):I would not be surprised at all if Knox finishes ahead of Chad. If I were picking between Ocho and Knox, it would be a tough decision to make – but you don’t have to make that decision – nope – you will be passing on Chad and picking up Knox 6-8 rounds later. Make sure and take him 5 rounds later, I don’t know – but he’s a much better upside pick that CJ, and as the #1 receiver in a Mike Martz offense, with a quarterback sporting a rocket-arm, he should smack last year’s numbers in the face. I don’t expect any kind of sophomore slump from Knox in 2010.

2. Ryan Mathews (ADP 15): Now I like Ryan Mathews a lot, he’s a very talented all around runner that won’t struggle with any one thing. And he looks to be in a pretty good situation in San Diego. BUT, he’s still just a rookie, and the more you look at San Diego the more you see that looks can be, and probably are, deceiving. Both Sproles and LT struggled last year – and while LT might have lost his lunge, Sproles was still a guy that produced at a good rate in 2008. So what was different in 2009? Line play, that’s what. And the more you look at this years’ Chargers, the cloudier the offensive line looks. If you’re expecting vintage LT numbers out of Matthews, you might want to look elsewhere. In fact, I wouldn’t draft Matthews at all, instead, I’d pick one of these guys…

———-Ryan Grant (ADP 27): If you had the 5th pick in your “average” fantasy draft, you could pass on Matthews with your 2nd round pick, grab an elite receiver instead (Wayne and Fitzgerald have ADPs of 16 and 17) and you’d still get Grant with your 3rd round pick. You can never predict exactly how a draft will go, but we’re talking averages here. Grantdidn’t explodelast year, but he still went over 1200 yards with double digit touchdowns. He was consistently putting up points, just what you want from your #2 RB.

———-Beanie Wells (ADP 43): Beanie is going to be a beast this year – that’s what I think anyway. First of all, the Cardinals are going to run the ball A LOT more this season. Kurt Warner and his accurate right jab are gone, in comes Matt Leinart (master of the handoff) and so come the carries. Tim Hightower is a solid RB, especially as a back-up, and that’s what he’ll be. It took Beanie about half the season to figure out this NFL thing, but figure it out he did. In part time duty he rushed for nearly 800 yards and 7 touchdowns with a 4.5 average. You can get him nearly 30 picks after the rookie in San Diego – and I’d rather have Wells than Matthews anyway.

3. Matt Ryan (ADP 86): Matty Ice sure had a great rookie season – so great that he was expected to be the next great thing in his sophomore campaign. Well, the Falcons struggled and so did Ryan. He wasn’t terrible, but ended up the 15th best QB in the league, averaging just over 13 fantasy points per contest. He’ll be better this year, definitely, but his ADP still puts him as a starting QB – just 5 spots out of the Top 10 – but if I’m going for a starter that late, I’m not putting my money on Matty Ice, nope, I’m taking one of these two guys instead.

———-Donovan McNabb (ADP 99): Donovan is still good, and I don’t think going to a team that will lean more on the run-game, and give him some more play action options (which he has always been good at), will hurt his game. Do I think he’ll come into a new team and rule the fantasy world like Brett did last year? Nope – but in Santana Moss, Devin Thomas, Chris Cooley and a nice (but old) stable of running backs (and a very good coach to boot, though I think Splinter is a crazy SOB), McNabb should have plenty of weapons to utilize this season. He was a Top 7 QB last season, and I expect him to stay in the Top 10 in Washington – an entire round later than Ryan and more fantasy points to boot. Sounds good to me!

———-David Garrard (ADP 123): Enter the always solid, never sexy late starting quarterback pick. I like Garrard more this year than either of the last two seasons. That offensive line in Jacksonville has to stay healthier this season, and they are a young talented bunch that is maturing. In Mike Sims-Walker David has a sure #1 receiver, something he’s never had coming into a season. I expect him to do better than his 15 fantasy points per game from last season, and outscore the golden kid.

———-Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 119): I don’t like this guy, not one damn bit – but he’s still going to be a solid quarterback, and whenever he gets back to playing (rumors say he could be back by Week 3, at the latest Week 7) he’ll be a better option than Matt Ryan. Don’t grab him as your #1, but if you end up getting your #1 late, it might be smart to secure a sure-thing solid QB option by Week 7. Ben averaged 20 points per game last season.

4. Jason Witten (ADP 52): Witten is going to get less chances this year than ever before, or so I predict. With Austin coming into his own, Roy Williams putting in a ton of off-season work with Romo, Dez Bryant getting drafted, and Felix Jones/Marion Barber tandem both proving to be good receiving targets – I don’t know how Witten could possibly be a top TE this season. He’s good, no doubt, but targets and touchdowns won’t come as often as they did in 2008 – maybe 2009. And while he’ll still be a solid TE option, he’s not worth his weight in ADP – nope, instead, I’d go with one of these two guys…

———-Brent Celek (ADP 62): I’d rather have Celek than Witten, straight up, and you can get him 10 picks later. Donovan McNabb is gone, sure, but the Eagles are always going to throw the ball, and Kolb might even be more accurate than Donovan. I’ll tell you right now that Celek has as sure a set of hands as any guy on that roster, and he’s a heck of a lot bigger than either of the light-weights running routes from the outside. Celek will top Witten in catches and touchdowns – so you should take him instead.

———-Zach Miller (ADP 112): Okay, I would rather have Witten than Miller – but it’s a hell of a lot closer than you’d think. As I said, Witten has to compete with a lot of talent to get his numbers – right now, as Miller is easily the best receiving option in Oakland – and the guy is talented. He gets big after the catch numbers and Jason Campbell has always loved to throw to tight ends. Miller may have been a bit of a bust last year, but not this time around – oh no, he’s going to be a steal some 60 picks after Jason Witten. If JW finishes more than 20 fantasy points above Zach Miller I’d be stunned.