Buffalo Bills VS Detroit Lions: PreSeason NFL Free Pick

I like the Bills, because they are still trying to find their identity, and don’t have any stars to sit and rest before the regular season starts – they can’t be wasting time like that – so they’ll play their guys and covering a 4.5 in the pre-season when your starters are playing more snaps seems like a solid chance. Plus, the Lions are far from amazing.

Buffalo may have their starter figured out, and that is probably Trent Edwards, but it’s not like the position is his to keep forever – the Bills are a work in progress, and besides C.J. Spiller, they are probably willing to give everybody on their roster an extra look going into the pre-season. This is also a new coaching staff in Buffalo, so they need to use as much time as they are given to put in their new schemes. That’s just another reason to play your starters a little bit longer on Thursday Night.

The Lions have had a solid pre-season, seeing explosive football out of Jahvid Best, nice passing from the young sophomore quarterback, Matthew Stafford, and getting their WRs and TEs some solid looks. Defensively, the Lions have looked improved. They have some versatility in the front 7, and Mr. Suh looks to be every bit the stud they drafted #2 in this years’ draft.

I full expect the Lions to put up some points early, especially if the starters get a couple series – but the Bills will end up on top in this one, or at least covering that 5.5 point spread.

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions

Fantasy Football Predictions: From the Window to the Wall!

Every guy in fantasy does something in terms of predicting the future. That’s what you do when you pick Chris Johnson over Adrian Peterson or Mike Williams over Mike Williams… err… that last one is tough to read. Anyway, you get me, you could just be following some dink’s rankings, or you could be using them as a guideline – regardless, at the end of the season you can always see how your predictions ended up. Last year, it was easy to see that Anthony Gonzalez and Eddie Royal didn’t blow up the world like I thought they would, and my fantasy squads suffered. The tough thing about being a sportswriter, aside from the obvious ribbing you take from your friends about how you don’t have a real job, is that your predictions are right there for everyone to see. If you’re a responsible cat like myself, you even do reviews so readers don’t have to look hard to find the true outcome. Last year, as I said above, my pre-season predictions weren’t right on the ball. But this year, oh yes – there is always a new year, I’m swinging for the fences and you can bet your biscuit that I’m making contact. Jump in, buckle up, we’re going for a ride!

Below are 21 Predictions (for my black-jack junky friends out there, this one’s for you!) for the upcoming fantasy season. Some are wild, some are sure, but they are all predictions that can be used against me in a court of fantasy law. These predictions go everywhere from the window to the wall! Lets play some football!

1. LaDainian Tomlinson rushes for more yards than he did last season as San Diego’s #1 running back. The Jets’ line is legit, and LT can still run with a egg-shaped ball.

2. Brett Favre calls an end to a few streaks: His consecutive start streak will end, his last pass won’t be an interception, and he won’t come back ever, ever again when this season is done – so enjoy one of the last real cowboys!

3. Shonn Greene will have at least 7-100 yard games, and rush for at least 10 touchdowns. Why? The guy is a beast, and his offensive line is one of if not the best in football.

4. Sam Bradford will throw more touchdowns than interceptions, which would be nuts for a rookie QB on a bad team with limited help at receiver. He’s gonna be good, folks.

5. Either Peyton Manning or Drew Brees won’t finish as a Top 5 fantasy QB. I know it’s crazy to think that, the Colts have been so good and the Saints look unstoppable – but the NFC South is crazy, and the Saints have one of the easiest schedules in football (which means less passing, you’d think) and the Texans, Titans, and even the Jaguars are much improved, making it tougher on Manning. Some king has to stumble.

6. Mike Sims-Walker will finish the season as a Top 10 fantasy receiver. People go either way on Mike, either you love him or you hate him. He wasn’t a beacon of consistency in 2009, but remember, he wasn’t even a starter out of the gates, and was showing his stuff for the first time.

7. Mike Bush will double Darren McFadden’s fantasy numbers. He’s better, and the Raiders are starting to realize it.

8. Terrell Owens > Chad Ochocinco in 2010. Draft accordingly.

9. Have you ever watched Percy Harvin play football? If not, you’re missing out. That guy gives more migraines than he gets, I’ll tell you that much. I think he plays in 16 games this season, and catches at least 76 balls for over 1100 yards and racks up at least 8 touchdowns – and blocks the snot out of 100 unsuspecting defensive backs.

10. Wes Welker ends up with more fantasy production than Brandon Marshall. In other words, don’t draft Brandon.The Patriots throw it like a hot potato, the Dolphins run like Forrest. I wouldn’t worry too much about Welker’s health, if anybody is back to 100% quick, it’s that guy.

11. Greg Jennings is worth his price in Gold. The Packers’ receivers are really good – but Greg is the best of the bunch. His stats didn’t show it last year, they will this year. Stick him in the Top 7 right now.

12. Larry Fitzgerald will finish outside of the Top 10 WRs. So don’t draft him – even if you’re in a dynasty league, I’m telling you – let somebody else draft him, then go ahead and trade for him when that owner is crying and doing anything to salvage his season. I was once high on Leinart, now I’m backing off, but either way, teams will be doubling the bejeezers out of Fitzy.

13. Rashard Mendenhall is one of the few true #1 running backs in the NFL. That’s why he sneaks into the Top 7 RBs this season.

14. What do you get when you cross a donkey with moron? You get a quarterback that will miss the first 4 games of the season and still finish in the Top 15 amongst his own position.

15. Don’t be confused, there is nobody worth starting in Cleveland. I’m not kidding, not one guy on that team will finish in the Top 20 at his respective position. That’s rare, but it’s going to be true.

16. One of the highest paid QBs in the NFL, Eli Manning, will finally finish in the Top 10 amongst QBs. I’m not a fan of Eli, mostly his stupid face, but with Smith, Nicks, Manningham, Bradshaw, and Kevin Boss – and a tough schedule that will have him throwing early and often – Eli gets in the Top 10 for the first time.

17. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, and Jeremy Maclin (all sophomores) will, as a threesome, easily outscore Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, and Chad Ochocinco (unless Chad changes his name back to Johnson, then he has a chance to turn this whole thing around). Nicks and Harvin both become #1s this season while Maclin’s elite touchdown scoring ability goes wild under Kolb’s arm.

18. Johnny Knox, currently ranked 38th on ESPN.com, finished the year above half the people rated above him. Two names put together to form an odd looking guy with no respect for turnovers – Mike Martz. It might not make the Bears win, but it will make Knox go wild.

19. I’m gonna go on ahead and say that Anquan Boldin finishes with more fantasy points than Larry Fitzgerald. I know, I know, 50 people have already wrote me telling me I’m crazy, and 20 of those have always said that Boldin is nothing but a #2 WR. You’ll be eating them, folks, not me.

20. Zach Miller, Devin Aromashodu, Nate Burleson, Vince Young, Laurent Robinson – all guys ranked out of the Top 100 and I’m betting 4 of the 5 finish in the Top 100.

21. Tom Brady returns to the #1 spot amongst QBs. Yeah, Brees won’t throw as much this year – Manning has a little bit more in the run-game, and Aaron Rodgers’ Packers need to run it more to be consistent. Brady is going to throw 40 touchdowns again – because he can.

Ask Papa Weimer: Elite Fantasy Football Advice

I got another good email from a reader, David, and the answers can certainly help you with your fantasy drafts this coming weekend… So here it is, an excerpt from my Email conversation with David. For all your football questions, both fantasy and reality, write to papaweimer50@hotmail.com.

If I can’t get a top 7 QB what are my options? Could you give 2 or 3 QB combos that could help me out?

If you don’t get a Top 7 guy, I would go with upside with two quarterback slots. Jay Cutler is in a big time passing offense with Mike Martz, kevin Kolb has the same deal with the Eagles, Ben Roethlisberger is slipping way down drafts because he’s missing 2-6 games those are 3 guys you might want to target as a tag team QB duo that could really produce like a Top 7 guy.

David Garrard, Carson Palmer, and Joe Flacco are 3 other guys that I would consider – though all have their scary sides (Flacco is the biggest sure thing in my opinion).

If I can’t get a top TE, which 2 or 3 of these guys could be my man and why?
(Winslow, Cooley, Shiancoe, Z Miller, H Miller, J Carlson)

I really liike Winslow, Cooley, Shiancoe, and Zach Miller. I don’t know about Heath Miller, I worry about him matching last year’s high in production – but with Santonio Holmes gone, Miller might get more targets. Carlson is a nice talent, and Pete Carol’s offense likes TEs, but I don’t know how much I’d want a secondary Seahawk target. Winslow is the most talented pass catcher of that bunch, a go-to-guy, which is nice to have at the TE spot – you know he’ll be getting looks. But he’s in Tampa and is an injury concern.

Cooley is in a new offense, but McNabb loves TEs and Chris is probably the best receiving option in Washington, something to like a lot about that. Also Shanny’s offense seems to appreciate the big pass catchers.

Shiancoe gets Favre back and loses Sydney Rice. That might put a little more attention from defenses into Visanthe’s direction, but it will also get him more looks – likely.

Zach Miller is great after the catch, a very impressive TE but he plays in Oakland. Like Cooley and Winslow, he’s probably the best receiver on his team – now it’s just believing in Campbell or not.

The other night my buddy and I were discussing it, and we both thought Shiancoe and Zach Miller had the best chance of breaking into LuckyLester’s Top Tier at TE – however, Cooley and Winslow are in my top tier – it’s a tough call, and they are all close. And Shiancoe moves into my top tier now with Brett back – I would say all four are pretty safe bets.

What 2 or 3 Def would be a sneaky good play (Sleeper) the first and 2nd week of the season?

The Giants aren’t getting much love and should be a lot better defensively, they play the Panthers in Week 1. San Diego and Miami get KC and Buffalo, both are pretty good match-ups as well.

Washington Redskins Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

Washington Redskins
(+2550) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, -125: Under 7.5, +105) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+145) – Odds to Win Division

No team has had a bigger off-season turnover in terms of excitement. Rather that will translate to wins or not is a good question, but nobody can argue about the off-season hype train that is still chugging along in Washington. First it was Mike Shanahan taking over for Jim Zorn, a move that most certainly has some upside for Redskins’ fans. Shanny, or Splinter (as I call him), had heaps of success in Denver, taking the Broncos to 2 Super Bowls, plenty of playoff appearances, and a plethora of impressive rushing attacks. Then there was Donovan McNabb’s trade to Washington. Suddenly the Redskins had a coach and quarterback tandem with a resume of success at this level – something they haven’t had in years. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to jump to the top of one of the best divisions in football. I’m sure the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants have something to say about that. There’s still plenty of question marks in Washington. How about that offensive line? It doesn’t look great – but can Shanahan’s cut/zone blocking scheme make that group better? It’s very possible. Defensively, the Redskins were actually pretty solid. They finished 8th against the pass and 16th against the run, which is pretty good considering how little they moved the ball offensively. The Redskins were in a lot of games last year despite winning just 4. They lost only 3 games by more than 10 points. Five of their losses were by 3 points or less. Will Splinter and McNabb make a touchdown difference in Washington? It wouldn’t be crazy to think so, and this team is very talented (even if they are getting old). I wouldn’t risk much on the Redskins, but I don’t think they’re much of a bet on either side of the winning wagers. They have close to a 50-50 to win at least 8 games, but that’s the only wager I’d even consider if I was putting money down on the Skins. In the end, I like the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles more than I like Washington – so 7 or less looks like the better win total to me.

Tennessee Titans Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

Tennessee Titans
(+2550) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, -125: Under 7.5, +105) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+170) – Odds to Win Division

I think the Titans have a real good shot to do some damage in the AFC this season. They don’t have that same dynamic defense they had a couple years ago (2008) when they dominated and started the season 10-0 before losing in the 2nd round of the playoffs to the Baltimore Ravens. But I think their offense is a lot better. Everyone knows how down-right untouchable Chris Johnson is at times – one of the fastest running backs of all time, and great vision as well. But it’s not all about Chris. Vince Young came into his own last season when he got that all-important 2nd chance from Jeff Fischer. After starting 0-6, Jeff went to Vince for a boost, and the former Texas star led the team to an 8-2 finish. Young was solid as a runner again, and defenses seemingly had no chance to stop both him and Chris Johnson – but Young also found his throwing arm. 2009 was the first season Young threw more touchdowns than interceptions, and his 82.8 QB Rating was the highest of his career by nearly 12 points. The Titans face a tough first-half schedule, but they should be able to pick up a handful of wins in the 2nd half of the season, after the bye week. Winning 8 games is very likely, making the -125 bet one of my favorite as far as over/under wagers are concerned. It’s always tough to bet against the Colts, so I won’t – even if that +170 division champion bet has some interest. Peyton is too good, and I don’t know if the Titans have enough defensively to make that bet. As far as chances to win the whole deal, I will give the Titans a shot. That’s right, I won’t say that about many teams, but they have a shot – even if it is from way, way downtown. Look for Kenny Britt to take a step forward by the 2nd half of this season – he’s too physically gifted and an ideal target for Vince Young.

St. Louis Rams Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

St. Louis Rams
(+17250) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, +155: Under 7.5, -175) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+200) – Odds to Win Division

Oh St. Louis – may you win a handful of games and be grateful for it! This team will not win 7.5 games, so while the -175 doesn’t get anybody excited in terms of payouts, it’s basically free money. Crazier things have happened, but come on, the Rams will need to get lucky to win 6 games, winning 8 would make them lotto-lucky. Winning 10 and taking the division, come on, stay away from that one please!!! Even in the West, there is NO WAY the Rams beat out the Hawks, 49ers, and Cardinals. One – possibly. Two – very unlikely, but you never know. Three – nope. I love Sam Bradford’s game, and have always thought he’d be a great quarterback at the next level. His vision is legit, and his timing and touch are both very good. He throws to receivers before they are open, and has an arm strong enough for all the throws. But he’s still a young QB on a bad team with mediocre options around him. Even Peyton couldn’t do much with the Colts when he first got the nod. Steven Jackson will help, the guy is a beast. And the Giants defense is in good hands with their young defensive minded head coach, Steve Spagnuolo. But do the Rams have enough to consistently win games? I don’t believe so. This was a team ranked 20th or lower in all major categories, including 25th and 27th in opponents’ pass and rush yards against, and 28th in their own passing attack. You can’t tell me that any rookie QB is going to come in and light the world on fire through the air, even with a future as bright as Sam’s. Some QBs succeed early, but they always have a solid team around them – so good, luck Sam!

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football PreSeason Week 3

Alright, I’m back again for another session of Ask Papa Weimer! I’ll be here all year folks, so enjoy it, ask questions, read answers, agree, disagree, tell me so when you get a chance, and interact as much as possible. I’m old like dirt and rocks and Al Michaels, so I don’t have much else to do besides spit knowledge about the grand game of football and answer emails. Throw your emails to papaweimer50@hotmail.com. Seriously. I was a little low on emails this week, so I had to start a new section (see the bottom of the article, “Weimer’s Absolutes”)  – but it might be for the better, humor is a hell of a drug! Continue on, my good reader, it gets better from here!!!

BonJovisIdol writes, “I loved Lucky Lester’s article “Don’t Sleep on Me” and the two guys he’d pick ahead of the higher drafted player at each position. What I want to know is, how would you rank the running backs he listed in that article? And do you guys always agree on rankings?”

First of all, we don’t always agree. In fact, we love to disagree – it’s a family thing. We often really like the same players coming into a season, but that’s because we both recognize value coming into the year, guys getting ignored, guys getting overdrafted – stuff like that. But we definitely don’t always agree. Lucky talked about Ryan Matthews, Ryan Grant, and Beanie Wells – and I really liked the points he made. I must say, however, I watched Ryan Matthews play the other night, and he looks like a special runner. He looked very natural catching the ball, and besides pushing his own blocker in the back, he seemed to have a good feel in that offense. But he’s still a rookie, which is one of the points my nephew lists. I think Ryan Grant is the surest thing of the three and Beanie Wells has the most upside. I expect Darren Sproles to get plenty of touches in that San Diego offense and Beanie has to deal with Tim Hightower stealing touches (especially if he has fumble troubles – Ken Whisenhunt doesn’t like that). Ryan Grant doesn’t have to deal with anything (though Brandon Jackson looks better than I’ve ever seen him). I would rank them like this, Beanie Wells, Ryan Grant, and then Matthews – so I kind of agree with LL. I’m an upside guy, and I think Beanie could be awesome with more carries in his sophomore season. I also like Rashard Mendenhall, whom NFL.com has rated behind Matthews. Rashard will be great in 2010.

Bill from here asks, “How many fantasy football leagues are you in? How many is too many? In a league with 10 buddies, what would you consider a good buy-in, payout format to be? Any good rules we should add? Thanks!”

Crazy Bill, I’m also from here. I like your question, however. I usually get questions about rankings, players’ upsides, junk mail, and trades, but every once in a while I get questions like this, and I really like to share my confident opinion about actual fantasy settings – as good settings can make the game a lot more fun to play. I am only in 3 leagues this season, the fewest in the last 10 years. I’ve cut down a little bit, as writing and answering emails have given me a new outlet. One of my leagues is a 2-player keeper league with a $275 buy-in, it’s a total points league (no versus) with a lot of ways to get paid out. The highest score each week gets $30. The top 4 finishers make money, $1000, $600, $300. Then there is a survivor pool where the winner makes $150. And there’s a playoff fantasy format (pick the best fantasy starting line-up every week) where the winner gets the remainder of the pot. That league is awesome. It has a quirky set-up with points bonuses at 100 yards and 200 yards for RBs and WRs, an 250 and 500 yards for QBs, and 50 yards for TEs.  One of my leagues is a dynasty league (full roster keeper) with a rookie draft the day after the NFL draft finishes every year – the buy-in is $35, it’s a pretty basic PPR. I’m in another league with an auction draft. You get to keep 4 players if you want. There are salary rules, $10 more for 2nd year keepers, $15 more for 3rd year keepers, and a 4th year at $5 more. So if you draft a guy for $1, next year you can keep him for $11. The next year you have to decide if you want to keep him for year 3 and 4, or let him go. Year 3 and 4 will be $26 then $31 – but once you decide to sign them for the final two years, you have to keep them for those years. The more unique rules, the better! I love auctions as well. I don’t like full roster keepers leagues, as drafting is one of the more delightful aspects of fantasy football. I think 3 is probably too many for me, but Lucky enjoys having about 7. It’s all preference. I think every league should have blind bidding for free agents – first come first serve is kind of stupid, and “worst to first” is a little fishy as well. Blind bidding starts everyone out with the same free agent bucks, and from there it’s up to the owner to wast that cash. Just adds to the game!

Samson from Darrington, Washington says, “Give me one sleeper! That’s all I ask!”

Don’t cut your hair. I’ll give you one better, I’ll give you two. Draft Michael Bush. Draft Eddie Royal. Your welcome. Neither of those guys get drafted in your average 10-team fantasy league. Both should be. If it’s a real deep league, go with Mike Williams in Seattle – not Mike Williams in Tampa (I really like him, too, but he’ll get drafted in most leagues). Good luck, Samson.

Seattle Seahawks Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

Seattle Seahawks
(+6550) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, +115: Under 7.5, -135) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+200) – Odds to Win Division

The Hawks were first in opponents’ offside penalties at home last year – and that’s about all they can take away from last season. Nice. But Jim Mora is gone, Pete Carroll is in, and enter the Pee-Hawks dynasty… Okay, so maybe it’s not that easy, but it’s still a sweet name. Carrol dumped USC just in the nick of time, and quite honestly, he took over the Hawks with perfect timing as well. Taking over for Mora with an owner on your side that will spend freely and give you the reigns – you bet! But these are still the Seahawks, here. They gave up a ton of yards and garnered very few. They don’t have a strong offensive line, a solid running game, a dominant aspect of their defense, or even a good kicking game. But they have a chance, they play in the NFC West! And they have talent – lots of it. Just about everyone on the team battled injuries last season, and they have some big time talented upgrades on the team. Mike Williams and Golden Tate, one a talented guy that can be easily described as a bust thus far, and the other a youngster from Notre Dame, are big time playmakers at WR. And the last time Carrol and Williams worked together, big things happened. Leon Washington was also brought in, and if he returns to full speed, he’s a huge playmaker in the Reggie Bush mold at running back. Russell Okung has dominant stuff at Left Tackle (though he’s a rookie) and Earl Thomas is expected to be awesome in all aspects at safety. This team still has TJ Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch at WR, and John Carlson at TE – and Matt Hasselbeck isn’t too far away from being a Pro Bowl QB. There are weapons here, lots of them. And that doesn’t even take into account the return of a healthy Lofa Tatupu and a year of seasoning for the ultra explosive Aaron Curry. But there are holes and questions, no doubt, on the offensive line and defensive line, and last time I checked, those things are important. Oh, and the secondary too… But I’d rather bet +200 on the Hawks winning the West than -260 on the 49ers, I’m not sure much talent separates those two teams. Super Bowl chances aren’t there, sorry Hawk fans. I’m not crazy about over/under with the Hawks either – I don’t see much value either way. I’d probably have to go under 7.5, but I could see the Hawks winning 9 as well. Tough call!

San Francisco 49ers Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

San Francisco 49ers
(+3050) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 8.5, -145: Under 8.5, +125) – Over/Under Total Wins
(-260) – Odds to Win Division

This is the 49ers year. There it is, finally, after a couple years of “maybe they’ll break through, maybe they’ll get the NFC West crown, maybe etc” the 49ers look like the team to beat in the NFC. And despite me labeling them the favorites, I don’t think I’d touch this bet. The 49ers haven’t proven to me that they are good enough to be a -260 bet to win anything, let alone an entire division. I think the Hawks and even more so the Cardinals have a fair shot at taking the title, so no thanks on that one. I think the 49ers will win 9 games at least, maybe even 10, but they’re probably not good enough to blow that 8.5 out of the water, and at -145, I’m not crazy about that bet either. They were a couple big plays away from winning a couple more games last season (Brett Favre throw with 2 seconds left, anyone?) but they have questions. It’s tough to give a team 9 wins with questions at quarterback and offensive line. Sure, many expect Alex Smith to take another step forward this season – and the 49ers went big on offensive line the draft (picks 11 and 17 overall), but they are far from sure at either spot. I think they are good enough to do some major damage, and there’s not a better guy in football than Mike Singletary – and he’s surely getting his team ready to win big games – but I don’t see the 49ers as a Super Bowl team either. I would stay away from the futures bets on San Francisco.

San Diego Chargers Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

San Diego Chargers
(+925) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 10.5, -140: Under 10.5, +110) – Over/Under Total Wins
(-320) – Odds to Win Division

The San Diego Chargers let the face of their franchise walk, and it was probably the best move for the team. Philip Rivers now takes over for LaDainian Tomlinson as the unquestioned leader of the Chargers, and he might prove to be the right man for the job. Rivers became the focal point of the Chargers offense last season when the running game failed to live up to expectations – and the biggest winner from that decision was Antonio Gates. He’s still Rivers’ favorite target, and with Vincent Jackson headed straight toward a long-term holdout, that will likely stay the same. The Chargers retained Darren Sproles to help with RB duties, but they also drafted Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews in the middle of the 1st round and plan on making him a huge part of their rushing attack. Malcom Floyd has shown promise here and there, and many think he can take over just fine for Vincent’s spot in the starting line-up. I just don’t like the Chargers enough defensive to think they can win a Super Bowl. At +925 they are damn near favorites to raise the trophy in the winter of 2011 – but I don’t buy it. I don’t think LT lost as much of a step as his blah numbers would imply – I just think this offensive line is struggling. I see the Chargers being a little better defensively this time around, but they are still far from an elite unit – as you never know what they’ll get with rookies. I’d like this team a lot better if Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson were signed and ready to play, but their absence hurts this entire offense – something I’m not willing to over look, and that’s why I’m staying away from any Chargers’ bets prior to the season. I think UNDER 10.5 wins for +110 is a decent bet. The Chargers could easily lose a couple more games this year and still win the AFC West.

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