2010 NBA Draft: Final 1st Round Mock Draft

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This is it, the day is here, yet another professional sports draft. I love the draft, as many readers have probably realized, as I’ve spewed out thousands and thousands of words between the NBA and NFL draft over the last few years. A bunch of kids getting rich is always fun, and when it’s kids that I’ve watched give it all in college hoops, it’s even more interesting. I had a huge Mock Draft (Part 1 and Part 2) a while back, and while it’s still very relevant here’s a mock that only considers what I’ve heard and read about who is going where tomorrow, with a little of my predicting process involved. I’m sure a trade or three will muck up my mock, but I’m giving it a shot anyway.

1. John Wall – Washington Wizards: No-brainer. I, personally, would consider Turner at #1 for a couple teams in the league – but Wall’s appeal is real – he’s an explosive athlete that could very well be an even better NBA player than a college guy. And he was one of the best in all of college hoops.

2. Evan Turner – Philadelphia 76ers: It looks like the 76ers have smartened up a bit and decided on Turner. Favors was flirted with, and his upside at PF is understandably sexy, but Turner does it all and the 76ers need that desperately. I think Turner will be an All Star within the next 3 years. Not many guys in this draft you can say that about.

3. Derrick Favors– New Jersey Nets: There’s been lots of chatter here, but I find it hard to believe that the Nets would skip out on the opportunity to draft an NBA freak athlete PF like Favors for a small forward like Johnson. Could Johnson be better than Favors? Certainly, but small forwards are a lot easier to find than good power forwards, and right off the bat Favors will make an impact.

4. Wes Johnson– Minnesota Timberwolves: I think Wes Johnson will be a very solid pro player. I don’t think he has starting All-Star upside, but this guy might come in and be the biggest offensive threat on the team from day one. Makes sense to me.

5. DeMarcus Cousins– Sacramento Kings: How can the Kings not go for the gold here? Is Cousins a risk? Sure, but he’s also a dominant 7 footer that can score the basketball and has tons of upside. Sounds like a risk worth taking.

6. Al Farouq Aminu– Golden State Warriors: I’ve heard that Ekpe Udoh might be the guy here, but I find that hard to believe. I like Udoh more than a lot of “experts” and think he has some offensive upside that was shown off against Duke (and other teams), but I still don’t think Golden State will go Udoh with the 6th pick. If they trade down, maybe. But I think they’ll go upside here and pull Aminu off the board. His athleticism on both ends could really help them, especially with Maggette traded away.

7. Greg Monroe– Detroit Pistons: The Piston don’t have a real power forward. Ben Wallace doesn’t have PF skills, and certainly is old and without offensive game. Villanueva plays more like a SG than a PF, he’s soft. Austin Daye is too weak to be a PF. They have other guys that are too short. Monroe has every offensive skill you need, and he’s a great passer with good vision. He has the body to be a presence defensively and on the glass. He’s a good pick here for Detroit if they can’t move up to get their guy, Cousins.

8. Gordon Hayward– Los Angeles Clippers: If Aminu’s still here, they take him I’m sure. If Aminu’s gone, there’s lots of options. One that hasn’t been thought of much is Avery Bradley – that wouldn’t stun me. I have always really liked Hayward though, a guy that doesn’t get enough recognition for how elite he is athletically. Dude is springy. He can really shoot (though struggled last season a bit from the floor), but I think he’ll be a better pro than he was as a college player – and he was good for Butler. He’d help sure up a spot in LA that is pretty weak.

9. Ed Davis– Utah Jazz: I think Davis doesn’t get enough credit, or rather he gets too much blame for the failures of UNC last season. He wasn’t a first option offensive force anyway, and had a hard time getting the ball between sharing post opportunities and guards having trouble. Davis is a big kid that has lots of maturing to do, but he’s more explosive and even longer than people give him credit. He would be a solid defensive guy for a team that is terrible on D.

10. Avery Bradley– Indiana Pacers: If the Pacers don’t trade their pick (I think they do), Bradley would be a solid option. They don’t really have a PG of the future, and this kid is very explosive and great defensively. Paul George has been what I’ve been hearing, but I think 24 hours will be plenty of time for Indiana to realize they don’t need a lanky scorer off the bench. I think Bradey’s the move, though I would easily trade this pick for the likes of Ty Lawson or Darren Collison.

11. Ekpe Udoh – New Orleans Hornets: I have heard too many things about the Hornets and where they’ll go with their pick, but Udoh seems like a good option to me. He’s a defensive presence in the middle for a team that doesn’t have one, and I think he has upside to benefit offensively from a dominant point guard. He can finish above the rim, well.

12. Paul George– Memphis Grizzlies: I would be surprised if the Grizzlies didn’t find a way to package some of their picks to move up and pick the guy they really want in the 7-10 range (but who is that?). I’m not too sure what the Grizzlies want. They should believe they have a center of the future. They have Marc Gasol. Even Zach Randolph was solid for them. If they think they might lose Rudy Gay, than a guy like Babbitt or maybe Xavier Henry makes sense here. But the Grizzlies have enough solid players where absolute upside should be key, and that looks like Paul George to me.

13. Cole Aldrich– Toronto Raptors: Lots of guys make sense for this soft team. Chris Bosh is gone, and he was the Raptors. Now they’ll go to Bargnani, and he’s a very solid player – but as a center, he’s soft, a perimeter player. Enter Aldrich. He’s not flashy, doesn’t have high upside, but shoot – at pick 13, the NBA Draft History says getting an effective player at all is a good deal. I think Aldrich would help take defensive pressure of Bargnani, and make a nice tandem to build on in Toronto.

14. Patrick Patterson– Houston Rockets: The Rockets gave up Carl Landry last year, and I think Patrick Patterson would be a great player to put on this squad. This team tries to do all the little things, and Patterson would be a perfect guy in the front court rotation for their team concept. Plus he helps right meow.

15. Craig Brackins– Milwaukee Bucks: So many options for Milwaukee. After doing pretty well in trades, they don’t really need any one spot. They could take help anywhere, though, and so I think they grab the best player that can surely help them continue to be a playoff team. I think Damion James would be a great guy for them, but they might go for more upside than the hard working James. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they reached for the big Frenchman. His upside is impressive, and they have added plenty of pieces prior to the draft to justify that pick. Still, I think they can get needed help up front in this draft, and Brackins could give them an interesting option off the bench, spreading the floor for guys like Jennings to attack the paint.

16. Luke Babbitt– Minnesota Timberwolves: I think Babbitt would be a big time offensive force in the triangle offense. He can shoot and really understands the game – plus he’s lights out from range and while he’s not good defensively, he’ll help this team immediately.

17. Xavier Henry– Chicago Bulls:  Who knows where the Bulls go, honestly. They could trade a couple guys, move a couple spots, get all gung ho about adding some big free agents. Shoot, they might even have an inside track on LeBron. But they could use the best player left in the draft, in my opinion, Xavier Henry. He shoots the ball really well, and with Derrick Rose, the more guys that can drain jumpers the better.

18. Damion James– Oklahoma Thunder: I’ve always said that the Thunder could really use some unheralded guys that are just flat out better than their size or speed insists. James is a stud, he can hit shots, he can take big shots, he will get rebounds, play defense. He’s a solid player that could eventually start, always come off the bench, anything. He’s glue. They need more glue.

19. Eric Bledsoe– Boston Celtics: I’ve heard lots about how the Celtics need a ‘Sheed replacement, but Bledsoe fits too well here for me to ignore. If he’s undrafted by 19, I’ll be a bit surprised, but it looks like he’ll still be on the board. He can back up Rondo at the point and play the 2 if need be. He can score and I see point in his future. For an older team with lots of questions in their back-court, Bledsoe makes too much sense.

20. Kevin Seraphin– San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs are smart. They’ll just build by taking a guy like Saraphin and having him grow up a bit before they start playing him. That’s why the Spurs are always good. They are smart.

21. Larry Sanders– Oklahoma City Thunder: I think Sanders gives the Thunder some toughness and athleticism at a position where they place Nenad Kristic and Nick Collison. Enough said, right?

22. Quincy Pondexter– Portland Trailblazers: The Blazers have plenty of talent in plenty of places, and Pondexter would just add a player that can do lots of things, be long and athletic, and produce energy plays any time he’s on the floor. He’s a quality player right now.

23. James Anderson– Minnesota Timberwolves: For those telling me that the Wolves don’t need a shooting guard – please, the Wolves need all the scoring they can get. Anderson might not be the next Michael Jordan, but that’s why he’s available late – he still knows how to score the ball, something the Wolves have a lot of trouble doing efficiently.

24. Solomon Alabi– Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks could really use more bigs. Guys that can make a dent on the defensive end against taller post players. They seem to get destroyed by teams with a post presence, and that’s probably because they don’t have a defensive post presence with length. Alabi would be a good fit.

25. Jordan Crawford– Memphis Grizzlies: I like Crawford. I don’t think the Grizzlies even know what they’re going to do, trades, free agency, etc. Crawford would give them a shot to explore some trade options and still have a high upside shooting guard. This late in Round 1, he’s a solid risk play.

26. Daniel Orton– Oklahoma City Thunder: They’ll have to hit with one of their bigs in this draft, right? The Thunder have a very good staff, and that’s why I don’t see them spending an early pick on Orton – too much risk. However, they have been stockpiling picks and if he’s there late, he’s a solid risk.

27. Elliot Williams– New Jersey Nets: Williams is a good defensive player, can really break down defenders 1 on 1, and that’s in college against zones and hand checking. I think he’s a steal this late, and New Jersey could use all the steals they can thieve.

28. Hassan Whiteside– Memphis Grizzlies: This kid has all the physical upside you could want, and so much length and hype… He also seems like a real donkey. To Memphis late, seems like a good fit.

29. Lance Stephenson– Orlando Magic: I think the Magic would be wise to grab a talent like Stephenson and see if they can get through to him and have him realize his potential. They could use some young off the dribble guys that can create.

30. Gani Lawal– Washington Wizards: Hard-nosed tough big man that is willing to do dirty work and not afraid to demand the ball. He’s super competitive and works very hard. Sound like any of the big guys in Washington? Not at all – that’s why he’d be a great pick up for the Wizz.

Boston Celtics VS LA Lakers Pick: NBA Finals Game 7

Here it is, one game for all the glory. It’s really a nice thing to see, a do or die situation in the NBA Finals – for both teams. How rare are these things? Really rare, so rare in fact that I don’t even care to look up any numbers about the rarity of the situation because I know it’s very rare and that’s good enough for me. This is what makes many playoff situations great, that last game with everything on the line, both teams playing at their best, do or die.

So far, the Lakers and Celtics have been pretty even. The road team has won a game in their opponents’ house, and each has taken two at their own place. This game is being played in L.A. where the Lakers bench seems to do better work than the Celtics’ reserves. Kendrick Perkins, the Celtics best post defender, has been ruled out for this contest after spraining all the CL’s in his knee area – and that guy has huge knees. So yes, this game looks to be favoring the Lakers.

But the bench for L.A. played so well a couple nights ago – can they really do up the Celtics twice in a row? Can Ron Artest hit pull up threes in his defender’s face? Can he hit fadeaway jumpers that rattle home? Will Pau Gasol flirt with a triple double? Will Rajon Rondo shy away from the paint after getting dome shotted by Artest in Game 6? Will Paul Pierce struggle to find his touch? And what about Ray Allen? Record setting Ray-Ray and his beautiful J… Where has that been this series? Did he use up all his good ju-ju in Game 2?

I want to take the Celtics, I really do. 7 points is an awful lot to give in a Game 7 situation, but I guess I give a lot of credit to Kendrick Perkins. If the big man was in a green and white uniform tonight, I’d be taking Boston to cover in a close game. But without Perkins defending Pau Gasol and/or Andrew Bynum, that post up game advantage gets just that much better for LA.

If I was picking the Celtics, it would be an “against all odds” pick. They have an injury problem, playing on the road, struggling offensively, on their last legs – nothing is looking good. But I know they’re fighters, and they certainly have their back against the wall. But L.A. should win this game. They have better, younger players. I’ll take them to cover the touchdown spread.

Boston Celtics @ L.A. Lakers (-7)

NBA Draft History Part II: Picks 8-14 of Lottery Picks

This is my continuation on my NBA Draft History article, highlighting the last 5 years of lottery picks, and other memorable players from drafts between 2005 and 2009. I have listed each pick for each selection slot from 2009-2005, in order from most recent all the way to 2005′s draft.

Below the lottery run-down I’ve re-listed the other memorable players drafted after the lottery in each of those years. Hope you enjoy!

8. Jordan Hill, Joe Alexander, Brandan Wright, Rudy Gay, Channing Frye

The day of judgment is still far away for the last three guys, especially rookie Jordan Hill. Hill looks like he could be solid for the Rockets, he just needs some room to figure it out. Brandan Wright has shown flashes, but he’s been hurt by Nelly’s interesting rotations, and an injury that knocked him out all of last year. Channing Frye had his best season by far with the Suns, shooting threes like he was Reggie Miller in a 6’10″ body. Rudy Gay is easily the cream of this crop, and he takes the MVP. Joe Alexander is LVP material, though he’s still trying to figure it out – and Wright gives him some competition.

9. DaMar DeRozen, D.J. Augustin, Joakim Noah, Patrick O’Bryant, Ike Diogu

The MVP of this bunch is Joakim Noah, shoot, I never thought I’d say that. DeRozen looks solid, though he’s still no sure thing. Augustin looked to have promise, but has slipped into obscurity – though he isn’t even close to the biggest bust. Ike Diogu barely did a thing in the league, but that little tiny bit of run he got was twice as much as O’Bryant managed as he earns the biggest bust title from pick #9.

10. Brandon Jennings, Brook Lopez, Spencer Hawes, Saer Sene, Andrew Bynum

What a great group. Brook Lopez gets the MVP of Pick #10, but I’m not sure Andrew Bynum isn’t the better player right now. Brandon Jennings might be better than both of them when all is said and done, as he had a great rookie season running the Bucks. Spencer Hawes has also showed promise as a skilled 7-footer, and the easy bust pick is Saer Sene – and yes, it’s okay that you have no idea who he is. I do, but I’m a freak. His career was forgettable.

11. Terrence Williams, Jarryd Bayless, Acie Law IV, JJ Reddick, Fran Vazquez

Picking 11th guarantees you very little, apparently. After JJ’s performance in the playoffs this year, I might have to give him the MVP of this group (though I think Terrence Williams is going to become the biggest pumpkin in this patch). Jarryd Bayless has shown flashes as well, but he certainly hasn’t become even a starter in the NBA yet. The last 5 years have shown how tough it is to grab a big time performer in the late lottery. Fran Vasquez hasn’t even seen the NBA yet, but that being said, he can’t get my LVP before showing me he’s a bust. Acie Law, come on down!!! You are the biggest bust of the 11th pick!

12. Gerald Henderson, Jason Thompson, Thaddeus Young, Hilton Armstrong, Yaroslav Korolev

Jason Thompson has shown some streaky flashes that could give him the nod for MVP of Pick 12 over the last 5 years. Oh yes, I already told you, the late lottery has become the new second round. Jason Thompson and Thaddeus Young are, at the very least, starters in this league (though on terrible teams). I think Thaddeus has shown more flashes as more of a go-to-guy, but it’s a real toss up here. Forget it, it’s my show, and to help describe how blah pick 12 has been over the past 5 years, Thompson and Young will share the MVP for this pick. Gerald Henderson hasn’t played more than 7 minutes in any game (at least not that I’ve seen) and Hilton Armstrong hasn’t morphed into an NBA ready player quite yet, and I doubt he ever will, but he’s had some productive minutes at least. You know who hasn’t? Yaroslav Korolev. Slavy never did dick in the NBA, and crashed out trying to get his 2nd contract from the Clippers – weird. I’m stunned they didn’t offer him a terrible contract. He got traded from one D-League team to another last year, not one report disputes the kind of beer thrown in to make the deal go down. LVP, you are the guy.

13. Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Rush, Julian Wright, Thabo Sefolosha, Sean May

Oh, which bust to pick from? Thabo is a starter on a good team. He might not have the offensive upside that Rush has shown, but consistency and playabilty put him at the top of the list – amazing Thabo gets the MVP of this group. Hansbrough spent most of his rookie year rocking the injured list, and maybe he will pan out – but right now he’s no solid NBA guy. Julian Wright never grew into his tools, showing that yes, it’s okay to draft a kid because he’s good at basketball over a kid that is tall and jumps high. Sean May, well at least he’s still in the league – though getting minimal minutes, and dreaming of better days in Carolina Blue. I’m giving Julian Wright the bust label, he’s had so many chances to get into a blah line-up in New Orleans – and he was tabbed a draft day steal for the Hornets. Yeah, busty.

14. Earl Clark, Anthony Randolph, Al Thornton, Ronnie Brewer, Rashad McCants

I think Anthony Randolph is the best player from this group, and he was hurt most of last season, and received spotty minutes from Don Nelson during his first few years in the league. Ronnie Brewer could get the nod – as he’s definitely produced on a good team, starting for the Jazz most of the last couple seasons, but Randolph’s upside trumps what Brewer could do. Al Thornton has been a bit of a disappointment, he still scores at the NBA level, and isn’t even close to a bust, so I guess at 14 he’s a solid pick. Earl Clark barely played, and despite his physical tools hasn’t even made a dent in the league thus far. Rashad McCants is the bust from this group. He’s always had a nice jumper, but he’s really streaky in a bad way. Once every 10 games or so he’ll hit a good sting of jumpers, other than that he struggles. He’s scored in the NBA, but he hasn’t impressed. Still, he’s not nearly the bust that many of the Top 14 picks have been, and as it seems, picking at the end of the lottery – or ever later (check below) – doesn’t mean you don’t have a chance. Plenty of greats to be had later in the draft!

Memorable NBA Players Picked after the Lottery over the last 5 years (Player getting solid/meaningful minutes in the league)….

2009: Austin Daye (15), Jrue Holiday (17), Ty Lawson (18), Jeff Teague (19), Eric Maynor (20), Darren Collison (21), Omri Casspi (23), Rodrique Beaubois (25), Taj Gibson (26), Sam Young (36), DeJuan Blair (37), Jonas Jerbko (39), Marcus Thornton (43), Chase Budinger (44), A.J. Price (52),

2008: Robin Lopez (15), Marreese Speights (16) Roy HIbbert (17), JJ Hickson (19), Courtney Lee (22), Serge Ibaka (24), Nicolas Batum (25), George Hill (26), Donte Greene (28), Marion Chalmers (34), Luc Mbah a Moute (37), Chris Douglas Roberts (40), Goran Dragic (45), Bill Walker (47)

2007: Rodney Stuckey (15), Nick Young (16), Javaris Crittenton (19), Jared Dudley (22), Rudy Fernandez (24), Aaron Brooks (27), Tiago Splitter (28), Carl Landry (31), Glen Davis (35), Marc Gasol (48), Ramon Sessions (56)

2006: Rajon Rondo (21), Kyle Lowry (24), Shannon Brown (25), Jordan Farmar (26), Craig Smith (36), Daniel Gibson (42), Paul Millsap (47), Leon Powe (49),

2005: Joey Graham (16), Danny Granger (17), Hakim Warrick (19), Nate Robinson (21), Jarrett Jack (22), Francisco Garcia (23), Luther Head (24), Johan Petro (25), Jason Maxiell (26), Linas Kleiza (27), David Lee (30), Brandon Bass (33), Ersan Ilyasova (36), Ronny Turiaf (37), Monta Ellis (40), Louis Williams (45), Andray Blatche (49), Ryan Gomes (50), Amir Johnson (56), Marcin Gortat (57)

Boston Celtics VS LA Lakers: NBA Finals Game 6

This game is going to be tight. Why is that all but a guarantee? Well, the Lakers have really put away one game in this entire playoff run of theirs. When I say “put away”, I mean that sometime before the 4th quarter, the game was no longer within reach for their opponent. I can remember one game that didn’t get within a couple baskets in the 4th quarter – they have a killer on their team, when of the deadliest snipers in sports, but they don’t have that kill mentality as a group.

That means something. That means something that numbers and percentages and records just can’t match up with. Sure, Phil Jackson is 51-0 in series in which his team has won Game 1. 51-0 – there’s a number that promises the Lakers will win these next two games and walk away with the Championship Trophy and Phil’s 52nd win while taking Game 1. Percentages will tell you that the home team has the advantage, and LA plays the next 2 (if they get Boston in Game 6) at home. Percentages tell you LA will win this series. And records, well, some records tell you that the team who wins Game 5 usually wins the series. They will also tell you that Boston, and especially these Big 3, rarely close an opponent out on the road – but is that because they almost never NEED to? Or is that because they can’t? Oh, records and percentages and numbers, what can you really tell me? Here’s what, you can tell me what happened in the past amongst teams and situations that aren’t these teams and aren’t this particular situation.

What I think happens in LA in Game 6 is this: LA is up for much of the game, but in the 4th quarter, a close game gets closer, and maybe Boston starts to see it, smell it, feel that they NEED this 4th quarter, this 6th game, to win this series, maybe to get their last NBA title as The Big 3 (and Rondo) and company. Maybe, just maybe, the Celtics show that they are the team with a killer attitude, and they bum rush all those numbers and records and scenarios of the past that tell us they won’t win this game or this series. And if it does happen, and I’m betting it will, the reason will be that Boston is a team with a killer mentality. They just get it.

Even if they don’t win, I still see a cover as a highly likely scenario. These two teams keep it close, and LA doesn’t closeout games until very late. I like the cover, but then again, I like Boston – so what’s not to like about 6.5 points?

Boston Celtics (+6.5) @ LA Lakers

LA Lakers VS Boston Celtics: NBA Finals Game 5

With the series tied at 2 games a piece and the possability of a hapless (because of injury) Andrew Bynum, the Lakers come in on their heels – if that’s even possible for a Kobe Bryant led team. These teams aren’t only tied at two a piece in the actual series, but against the spread they’ve split the first four games as well.

The Lakers are going to have to depend on Ron Artest and Lamar Odom if Bynum can’t play up to speed, and that’s a scary thing for Lakers’ fans. Sure, Ron and Odom stepped up randomly in the Suns’ series against the softest defense in the Playoffs – but with one of the best defenses hounding them throughout, it’s hard for me to put my trust in Ron-Ron or Odom to carry home a Lakers’ victory.

From the start of this series, I thought the Lakers would take this thing in 5 or 6 games, ousting the Celtics with their superior size and length at almost every single position. Rajon Rondo hasn’t been amazing throughout the series, and the Celtics have fought foul troubles in almost every single game. But it’s still tied up at 2 games per squad, and that has a lot to do with the C’s ability to play team oriented basketball and get big games from unlikely heroes like Glenn Davis and Nate Robinson, and great defense from one Tony Allen.

Doc Rivers won’t compare favorably the the mastermind that is Phil Jackson, but he will always get my respect as an equal in the coaching circuit. His ability to match the Zen Master with in-game strategy change has given the Celtics not only a chance, but an even shot at taking the Title and becoming the first team even to beat a Phil Jackson coached team that won Game 1 or a playoff series. It’d be real nice to turn that 50-0 into 50-1 – still a good record, but just not the same.

I’ll take the Celtics to turn the pressure cooker on full blast, and make LA win two straight at home if they want to hold the NBA Finals Trophy.

LA Lakers @ Boston Celtics (-2.5)

NBA Draft History: The Lottery is NO Guarantee

The NBA Draft is just around the corner, so I’m all in. I love drafts, young kids getting rich because of all the practice they’ve put in – it truly is a great day in any sport.

I’ve been doing a little research about this whole lottery thing – and how much hype goes around those teams picking from the first 14 spots. I’m not sure it’s as big of a deal as people think. The bottom line is that you can get great players from anywhere, you just need to find diamonds that fit your system, and sometimes, you need to just pick the best player right in front of your nose and ignore all the “future prospect” crap. Below, I’ve taken the last 5 years of lottery picks and listed them, talking about the best and worst from each pick slot. I’m breaking the article into two parts, because it’s become a 2000-word beast. The 2nd part will be posted in the next couple days.

I’ve listed each pick from 2009-2005, hope you enjoy.

1. Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Greg Oden, Andrea Bargnani, Andrew Bogut

Aside from Derrick Rose, this group hasn’t been phenomenal. Griffin and Oden have been burdened by injuries while Bogut and Bargnani (both international men of mystery) have been solid but not yet great – though both have improved a lot, and come into their own this last season. Still a lot to be seen from this group, but Rose has easily been the most impressive. Oden has to get the pick for biggest bust, even though I can definitely see him turning his career around with a little luck from the doctor…

2. Hasheem Thabeet, Michael Beasley, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marvin Williams

Kevin Durant has easily been the MVP of the #2 picks, though LaMarcus Aldridge has also been solid for the Portland Trailblazers. Beasley, Thabeet, and Williams have been disappointments – though Thabeet and Beasley are both young and have upside – while Williams has struggled to be worthy of the #2 pick in his 5 seasons. He’s solid, but lots of good players were passed up so the Hawks could draft Williams, so I give him the biggest bust (though Thabeet and Beasley could be more disappointing in two years if they don’t turn things around – Williams is a decent player).

3. James Harden, O.J. Mayo, Al Horford, Adam Morrison, Deron Williams

Deron Williams is the class of this group, though Mayo and Horford have been impressive (and Horford has seen an All-Star Game). James Harden played well in the playoffs against the Lakers, and I’m sure he’ll be a solid pro – he just didn’t do as much as many expected during his rookie season. The biggest bust is easily Adam Morrison, especially when you consider three very good guys Jordan and the Bobcats passed on to snag the mustache – Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo.

4. Tyreke Evans, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley Jr., Tyrus Thomas, Chris Paul

Evans was the rookie of the year in a very strong class this season, while Russell Westbrook is on the verge of becoming a star for the Oklahoma Thunder – both players have unlimited potential, however, they are both behind Chris Paul for #4′s MVP. Mike Conley and Tyrus Thomas can share the biggest bust from pick #4, but neither has been a complete waste of a pick. Conley’s still maturing while Tyrus might never get past his fat head.

5. Ricky Rubio, Kevin Love, Jeff Green, Shelden Williams, Raymond Felton

Not a dominant group by any means. The book’s still out on Rubio, and we should get to check him out in the next couple years. Jeff Green has been solid, but I don’t ever see him being an All-Star or even a #2 option. Raymond Felton and Kevin Love have both been solid players, but each player has his own limitations. The MVP is probably Felton right now, though that’s a testament to how mediocre the #5 pick has been. Biggest bust? Hello Sheldon Williams – at least he married Candace Parker…

6. Johny Flynn, Danilo Gallinari, Yi Jianlian, Brandon Roy, Martel Webster

Brandon Roy is easily the MVP of this group, though his injury struggles are beginning to stack up at a bad rate. Johnny Flynn was decent in his first year, and I’m interested to see how he improves going forward, I think he’ll be solid. Danilo Gallinari showed some big time flashes this year, and he can certainly score the ball, but he’s far from complete. Yi Jianlian has been a big of a disappointment – and Martel Webster has been up and down through injuries and maturation (he was picked as a high schooler). The bust might have to go to Jianlian, though his upside is still there, and nobody on this list is a full bust.

7. Stephen Curry, Eric Gordon, Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Charlie Villanueva

Stephen Curry, coming off his rookie season, is already the MVP of the last five #7 picks. Eric Gordon is a solid second, and he might get more credit on a better team – I think he can be a very solid player. Corey Brewer came into his own last season for the Timberwolves, and I think he’ll be solid as well, but not as good as Gordon. Villanueva has been streaky, very up and down, bad defensively, talented but erratic offensively, and no coach seems to want to give him big minutes. Randy Foye has had some good stretches, but he probably is the LVP of this group (Least Valuable Player).
Memorable NBA Players Picked after the Lottery over the last 5 years (Player getting solid/meaningful minutes in the league)….

2009: Austin Daye (15), Jrue Holiday (17), Ty Lawson (18), Jeff Teague (19), Eric Maynor (20), Darren Collison (21), Omri Casspi (23), Rodrique Beaubois (25), Taj Gibson (26), Sam Young (36), DeJuan Blair (37), Jonas Jerbko (39), Marcus Thornton (43), Chase Budinger (44), A.J. Price (52),

2008: Robin Lopez (15), Marreese Speights (16) Roy Hibbert (17), JJ Hickson (19), Courtney Lee (22), Serge Ibaka (24), Nicolas Batum (25), George Hill (26), Donte Greene (28), Marion Chalmers (34), Luc Mbah a Moute (37), Chris Douglas Roberts (40), Goran Dragic (45), Bill Walker (47)

2007: Rodney Stuckey (15), Nick Young (16), Javaris Crittenton (19), Jared Dudley (22), Rudy Fernandez (24), Aaron Brooks (27), Tiago Splitter (28), Carl Landry (31), Glen Davis (35), Marc Gasol (48), Ramon Sessions (56)

2006: Rajon Rondo (21), Kyle Lowry (24), Shannon Brown (25), Jordan Farmar (26), Craig Smith (36), Daniel Gibson (42), Paul Millsap (47), Leon Powe (49),

2005: Joey Graham (16), Danny Granger (17), Hakim Warrick (19), Nate Robinson (21), Jarrett Jack (22), Francisco Garcia (23), Luther Head (24), Johan Petro (25), Jason Maxiell (26), Linas Kleiza (27), David Lee (30), Brandon Bass (33), Ersan Ilyasova (36), Ronny Turiaf (37), Monta Ellis (40), Louis Williams (45), Andray Blatche (49), Ryan Gomes (50), Amir Johnson (56), Marcin Gortat (57)

What have I learned? The Lakers are good at drafting. The Suns are good at drafting, but they are poor, so they usually trade away their draft picks for cash (which would really piss me off if I were a big time Phoenix Suns fan). The same bad teams seem to blow their draft picks year after year regardless of what slot they pick out of. And there’s always a really good player drafted right after a Michael Jordan team drafts a mediocre player too high… 2006 had about 5 good players in the draft pool. If you pick hard working players that are undersized but found ways to be really good in college, they’ll probably be solid NBA pros (Jared Dudley, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, Glen Davis, Rajon Rondo, Paul Milsap, Leon Powe, Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, etc.) That’s about it. Here’s to another NBA Draft!!!

2010 NBA Draft Analysis: Rookie of the Year Predictions

I’m not ready to give out a mock draft, and with Lucky’s Mock being as detailed as any out there, there’s really no reason to step on his shoes or pretend for  a moment that I know more than he does about that whole deal. However, nobody judges talent like me. I knew Brandon Jennings was going to make teams sorry for passing on him. I knew Josh Howard would be a good player. I even suggested that Rajon Rondo was vastly underrated prior to the Celtics’ stealing him late in the draft. This year, I have my Top 10 NBA ready players. I’ve listed from bottom to top in regards to their chances at winning the 2010-2011 NBA Rookie of the Year. Here are my predictions…

10. Eric Bledsoe: Listen, a lot of people think Eric is going to be a project at the point – but I disagree. He learned to play with great players last year at Kentucky, and still be a very productive and intelligent player. At Miami, or in Cleveland, even Toronto, maybe even Memphis – some team that needs a point and might move to draft Bledsoe, Eric will be playing with talented scorers. Opportunity and experience, he has them both, and that gives him a chance to be a big time surprise his rookie season.

9. Patrick Patterson: Patterson might not be a lottery pick, but I don’t see why not. All he did was play great basketball for the Wildcats all season long. He’s a smart player, he’s very confident, he wants to hit big shots, and he does all the little things that every team needs. He’ll have a chance to get big minutes and maybe even a starting spot depending on the team that drafts him.

8. Derrick Favors: Favors might be one of the Top 2 or 3 most talented players in this draft, but his lower level of maturity in his game limits his possibilities at being the rookie of the year. Still, with the right players around him, and possibly a quick passing guard, Favors could put up some big time numbers. His talent alone gets him onto this list.

7. Damion James: This kid is really underrated in my opinion. He doesn’t play like Dejuan Blair or anything, two very different players, but they seem very similar to me in that I expected Blair to be a good pro, and I expect the same from James. Damion’s team struggled last year, but he was awesome. He gives it his all every night out, is super competitive, and really understands the game. On the right team, James could be a big contributor.

6. Gordan Hayward: A lot of people call Hayward a project. Please – this kid struggled a little in the tournament, but he’s one hell of a player. He does so many things well, shoots it well, drives and attacks the rim even better – and his game absolutely translates to the NBA. Don’t get him twisted, he’s a freak athlete than can play and excel at multiple positions in the league.

5. Luke Babbitt: On scoring and shooting ability alone, Babbitt is poised to be an immediate contributor. He’s got great size, is a much better athlete than people realize, and can absolutely shoot the ball from anywhere on the court. In the right system that allows him to score freely, he could jump the big names in the ROY voting.

4. Wesley Johnson: Wesley Johnson is a pure scoring machine who’s game translates to the NBA very well. Johnson can play with his back to the basket, he’s a dead-eye shooter, he can drive well enough to make defenders honest – and he’s ready to hit big shots anytime. If he gets drafted by Minnesota, which many think might happen, he could be that big outside scoring threat they desperately need – and if they improve their record, his name will be right there for everyone to praise.

3. DeMarcus Cousins: Cousins is a beast. Who knows who’ll pick him, but if he happens to be the clean-up/only post presence on a team like Golden State, than he’s going to have huge numbers – especially if Nelly (or someone else) gets to him and tricks him into trying every night out. Cousins doesn’t get the same pub that Wall and Turner get, but goodness, he is a beast right now in a league void of productive 7-footers.

2. John Wall: Wall is awesome. He’s lighting fast, knows the game well, sees the floor – and will join a team in transition. Gilbert Arenas might move to the 2, and the team will let Wall dominate the ball. It will be interesting, but if we’re talking about ROY, you can’t look too far past Wall.

1. Evan Turner: I’ve said it for some time, this was the best player in college basketball last year. His game is ready for the league, and when it was crunch time, nobody could stop him. In the NBA defense doesn’t get a whole lot better, so I think Turner has a chance to continue scoring at a good number. He’s long and very balanced. His smart moves allow him to get past quicker defenders – and that will continue to work at the next level. If he starts from day 1, I expect him to win the ROY.

LA Lakers Vs Boston Celtics: NBA Finals Game 4

There’s a lot to like about the Lakers here – they are the better team with better players playing closer to their prime. They’ve mangled their way through to wins in 2 of the first 3 games, and they don’t have any big mismatches that should kill them in any game of this series – but this is sports, and in sports, sometimes the team with a stronger will and more to play for ends up with the W. That’s what I expect to happen tonight.

The Celtics have been one heck of a resilient bunch all post-season long. They are tough as nails, and if they focus on staying out of foul trouble and blocking out, they are as close to even as anybody in basketball gets to the Lakers.

There are lots of reasons to use in defense of both teams. One could say, the only reason the Celtics won Game 2 was that Ray Allen had one of the best deep-shooting nights in NBA Finals history. Then again, Celtics fans could easily say, the only reason you won Game 3 was that one of the best shooters in the history of the game went 0-13. Same goes for foul trouble for Kobe in Game 2, and foul trouble for Ray Allen and Paul Pierce in Game’s 1 and 3. Always full of excuses.

What I see as the bottom line is Boston’s need to win. The Lakers might pretend that they need this game, but when it comes right down to it, they don’t. They are good closers, no doubt, but they haven’t been killers during the post-season – they’ve played a gaggle of close games against each opponent they’ve faced, and while the Celtics don’t score as easily as the Lakers do, they can hit big shots, as they have proven.

I like Boston to will one out and even up the series at 2 games a piece tonight in Boston.

My X-factors:

Pau Gasol for LA and Paul Pierce for Boston: If Pau has 25 and 12 (or more) the Lakers most likely walk away with a win in Game 4. If Paul Pierce scores 25 or more on close to 50 percent shooting, the Celtics even it up. I’m betting on the guy with a complete first name.

LA Lakers @ Boston Celtics (-3)

Baseball News: Ken Griffey Jr. Retires: The Best Ever?

To the Kid that made me love baseball, you did it right.

I was a whopping 8 years old when Ken Griffey Jr. broke into the big leagues. He was only 11 years older than me, but still finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting. I was lucky enough to watch him prior to that first season in the Majors. See, I’m from a small college town called Bellingham, way up North and as far West as land will allow, where Griffey played minor league baseball for the Bellingham Baby M’s. I was one of the kids sitting on the metal bleachers along the 3rd-baseline. I was one of the kids stationed out on the grass just out of play out in left, left field. I was even one of the youngsters without enough for a cheap ticket, watching through the cracks in the outfield fence, hoping to get a glimpse of the best player I’d ever seen, or if I was lucky, to get a jump on a home run so I could fight like hell for one of the Kid’s towering blasts. I don’t know if you’d call that the beginning for Griff, as he was becoming a legend back in high school and became the #1 overall pick in the 1987 amateur draft, but it was the beginning for me.

I always liked baseball, since I can remember smashing wiffle balls with my oversized red bat in my backyard in Woodier, California. But I fell in love with the game when I saw the prettiest swing ever swung, the best catches an outfielder ever made, and a smile and passion that brought it all together.

I’ve been asked over the years, by many foreign friends and buddies that don’t understand the game’s draw, why I love baseball. Until Griffey Jr. retired a couple days ago, my answer had always been, “I don’t know, there’s really no reason I can think of, maybe it’s just habit.” When I thought of the game’s bible of rules, the measurements and exceptions, the dog days of summer, that molasses-like pace, the ridiculous role statistics play in the game’s history, and all the bashing of the sport during strikes and steroids – I almost found more reasons to argue against than for – so I just kept to my “I don’t know” reply. But now I know, now I remember – it’s Ken Griffey Jr.

In sports a lot of athletes take it too serious, they make it their life – and other guys make a mockery of the game, celebrating like donkeys over your average accomplishments – but Ken Griffey Jr. walked the line like Johnny Cash. He spent a handful of years touted as the best in the game, yet his pranks and backward hat antics while warming up, his perfect swing and golden smile, the way everyone has always loved him, the way he respected the game despite all the fun he was having – it was impossible not to love the game he made look so easy.

Over his years, players have become more superhuman than ever before – packing biceps as big as watermelons, squatting weights like forklifts, and doing it all with supplements, muscle enhancers, and even steroids and illegal human growth hormones. Guilty or innocent, I’m not going to point fingers or list names, I’m not even going to bash the muscle era – but I’ll tell you about a guy that never touched the stuff, the Kid that made me love baseball.

All Griffey was, was a guy a little taller than average, faster than average, and naturally gifted like I’d never seen before. He didn’t become a power hitter 15 years into his career or turn into some awkward human version of The Hulk. He didn’t even dip into the stuff when injuries were slaughtering his career after he moved to Cincinnati. He played 4 straight seasons in Cincinnati, during the prime of his career, when he failed to reach 400 at bats, finishing with less than 200 twice. He reached the 500 at bat mark just once during his 9 years with the Reds. This guy was so unlucky with injuries, I would have even understood if he decided to give a “helper” a try. But he didn’t. Never a cheater, always my favorite.

There was always an ease and beauty to the way Griffey played the game of baseball. It was almost brand new, his own style, his own way to make plays on the baseball, a swing so perfect nobody has been able to copy it – nobody had it before him – nobody had more fun playing the game than Ken. I think it’s ridiculous to claim somebody is the best ever. Comparing different ages of a game that has changed so much since it began is almost ridiculous. Comparing normal sized guys of the early years to the physical freaks of the now is impossible, and don’t let anybody tell you otherwise. Using statistics to support your argument is even more ridiculous when you consider the different dimensions of baseball stadiums everywhere. But he’s the best I’ve ever watched play.

I know I’ve said it already, but it’s the answer to a question I’ve been asked 100 times, Griffey made me love baseball, and I always will.

2010 NBA Mock Draft: Part II

2010 NBA Mock Draft: Part II (15-30)

As promised, here is the second half of my 2010 NBA Mock Draft. Workouts are still taking place, but I think you’ll get a lot out of my take on the draft. Just like my first Mock, (The Lottery Picks), this write up has who I think the teams will take, followed by who I would take. Once a player is chosen, he leaves my draft board. If you missed my first half of the NBA Mock Draft, check it out HERE. Enjoy!

15. Ekpe Udoh– Milwaukee Bucks: Who would I draft? James Anderson. I think both guys make a lot of sense. I liked Udoh in college, but am not sure he’ll be able to out-athlete guys at the next level. Against Duke he seemed like an NBA player to me, and the Bucks could definitely use more bigs to play behind Bogut. However, with Salmons hitting free agency and the Bucks really taking off after John joined the club, I think getting a big scoring guard with polish would help them continue to win now. Anderson could get that done.

16. Donatas Motiejunas– Minnesota Timberwolves: Who would I draft? Damion James.I understand stashing a foreigner away, especially when you have 3 1st round picks, and if they grab Donatas at #16 then they pick up the highest rated foreigner in the draft – which all makes a lot of sense – but this team could really use some polished players to become a winning team, and picking up a small forward with a winning pedigree like Damion James, makes the most sense to me. James can hit jumpers, he likes taking big shots, and he plays tough as all hell. Good qualities for a Timberwolves team that needs an identity.

17. James Anderson– Chicago Bulls: Who would I draft? James Anderson. The Bulls really missed Ben Gordon’s scoring punch, and if James Anderson is still on the board, he makes sense here. There are a couple other shooting guard, scoring types that could find their way to Chicago (especially when you consider free agency and what might take place) but a guy like Anderson makes a lot of sense for the Bulls. Eric Bledsoe, if they think they can play him at the two and not be at a defensive disadvantage, might be a guy they would hope for. Dominique Jones, the SG from South Florida, is another guy I like who isn’t getting much 1st round attention, but should be a solid scoring option. Jordan Crawford is another guy with some big upside, a guy that might do well in Chicago if a solid leader is picked up to coach the team.

18. Eric Bledsoe– Miami Heat: Who would I draft? Eric Bledsoe. The Heat need somebody to run the point in Miami, and where Chalmers used to be looked at as a steal, he’s now being used minimally as a back up. I think Bledsoe’s upside is grand, and if John Wall had attended anywhere but Kentucky, we would have really seen what Bledsoe is capable of. As is, Bledsoe showed that he can succeed and have big games as a second fiddle in the backcourt – a great thing for a place like Miami. If the young pg/sg is available, I think the Heat would be stupid to pass him up.

19. Solomon Alabi– Boston Celtics: Who would I draft? Damion James. I think the Celtics have earned the right to take the best player, and I think that guy is likely James. If Bledsoe dropped, a back up shooting guard/point guard might be a brilliant decision, but he’s gone in my mock. Alabi, I see what the Celtics are doing by picking him – he has great defensive upside, works his but off, plays very smart, and is a huge body down low. They don’t need an offensive center, and Alabi could take care of some bench minutes. However, James is a polished player with a very solid all around game that is ready to be a pro right now. The Celtics have a small window, and James could show up for big minutes right off the bat. Tough call, but I would go with James if I were making the pick.

20. Damion James– San Antonio Spurs: Who would I draft? Jordan Crawford. Oh, the Spurs could go many different ways here, including over seas. I wouldn’t be stunned if they grabbed James because the kid knows how to play, will be a solid player in the NBA, is greatly undervalued, and they always seem to make sound decisions on draft day – and I think James will be good. But Crawford is a scoring guard that could flourish under the Spurs’ solid leadership, but in the front office, the coaching staff, and amongst the players. It’s a very good atmosphere for a kid with tons of scoring upside. San Antonio could get the most out of a guy like Crawford.

21. Patrick Patterson– Oklahoma City Thunder: Who would I draft? Patrick Patterson. This kid was a great player for Kentucky. At times, he looked like the best player on the floor, and that team was not only loaded with talent but claimed two of the best guards in the draft, the best player in the draft, and a big that might slip into the lottery that didn’t even get minutes because of a guy like Patterson. I don’t know how Patterson doesn’t get more love as a solid PF at the next level. He’s explosive, aggressive, plays smart, has range on his jump shot, and finishes hard at the rim. Oklahoma could use a power forward that works hard and can spread the floor a little – I guess I’m not sold on the Thunder being able to defend your average power forward with the likes of Jeff Green.

22. Lance Stephenson– Portland Trailblazers: Who would I draft? Terrico White. I think Stephenson has solid upside. He might be the most talented player left, he has good size, and while he underperformed last season – he looks like he has plenty of room to improve and grow as a player. The Blazers aren’t dying for anything, so taking a high upside kid with plenty of potential and ideal size might just makes plenty of sense. I like Terrico White a little more than Stephenson, as I see him as a little more polished and very explosive.

23. Quincy Pondexter– Minnesota Timberwolves: Who would I draft? Darington Hobson. Both these guys are productive players at the college level that some think might not transfer to the NBA. Pondexter probably played himself into a sure thing first round position with his awesome second half of the year at UW – but then he played him self into the latter picks of the round by stinking it up for most of the NCAA Tournament. He’s a good player that goes on streaks, but Minnesota could definitely use his long body and improved offensive game at small forward. But I like Darington Hobson just a little more. Hobson struggled big time during the post-season, but this kid showed me flashes of greatness all year – I see him being a solid pro.

24. Jordan Crawford– Atlanta Hawks: Who would I draft? Jarvis Varnado. The Hawks are going to lose Joe Johnson, don’t get it twisted – the guy is as good as gone. Crawford can score the basketball, has good upside, and has shown that he has the will to show up big time in the most important games. A lot of people don’t love his attitude, but every team needs a guy that wants the ball with the game on the line. This pick makes sense to me. I like Varnado because I think the Hawks suck against teams with a post presence. I think Varnado is a very good shot blocker that could help to give opposing offenses some trouble. The Hawks need post defense really bad.

25. Terrico White– Memphis Grizzlies: Who would I draft? Terrico White. White showed all season long how athletic he is. At the NBA Draft Combine, he proved it once again. The kid is super explosive and he can shoot the basketball. His speed and ability to handle the basketball give him a big point guard upside, while still being able to help put points on the board as a shooting guard. Memphis isn’t saddled with any huge holes, so taking an athletic scorer with upside makes sense.

26. Paul George– Oklahoma City Thunder: Who would I draft? Larry Sanders. George can really shoot the ball, and I understand the Thunder wanting to add some shooters around Durrant, because face it, guys are going to get open. But I don’t think this team needs any more players getting shots. They have Durrant, Westbrook, Jeff Green, and James Harden is going to be a good pro as well. You’re telling me a 5th guy to get shots is what they need? I don’t see it. I think Larry Sanders would be a much better pick. His size is very impressive, as is his athleticism. He isn’t a very polished player, but he’d give the Thunder another look, and his upside is a good value pick here.

27. Armon Johnson– New Jersey Nets: Who would I draft? Willie Warren. If I were the Nets, I’d take a chance on Warren. He was a lottery possibility last year, and some struggles off the court seemed to get the best of his this season. But the kid can really play, as he showed during his freshman campaign. Injuries, issues with the coaching staff, a disappointing season – whatever you want, there’s plenty of reasons to go a different direction – which is what I expect New Jersey, and the rest of the first round, to do. But Warren is still that potential Top 10 player, and at 27 I think he’d be a steal. Armon Johnson is a beast of a point guard, very strong, athletic, and fast. He has long arms and he can really score the basketball. He doesn’t have a great jumper, but his physicality and quickness could make him a productive late round pick.

28. Kevin Seraphin– Memphis Grizzlies: Who would I draft? Trevor Booker. Yeah, I would take Trevor Booker. Some people say him and Zach Randolph are a lot alike – they are wrong. Sure, Booker can score on the post, has a solid touch, and is a smooth player – but he’s also a hard worker that is much faster and more athletic than people think. He might not have All-NBA upside, but he can help any team in the league. Seraphin is a very big body, a nice project player from overseas. He might pull out of the draft, but right now he’d be a guy that Memphis could grab with one of their 1st round picks, stash him away for a few years, and grab him when and if he’s more NBA ready – or if they need post help.

29. Hassan Whiteside– Orlando Magic: Who would I draft? Trevor Booker. Whiteside is an interesting guy. He thinks he’s going to be an all star, he claims that he wants to be one of the best, but he just doesn’t put in the work to back up all his talk. Lots of people claim they want to be something, but when it comes right down to it, their dedication and hard work is a good indicator of what they really want. Whiteside, to me, is a perfect example of why an NBA body doesn’t mean you’ll ever be a success at that next level. Talent-wise, he’s got plenty, but mentally he’s too immature. The Magic have plenty of leaders on and off the court to keep Whiteside grounded. Getting his face dunked on by Dwight Howard in practice might be just what the doctor ordered for Hassan. However, I would go with Booker. The kid is way faster and stronger than people give credit. He’s a tough kid that would be a perfect compliment player to any good team. As workouts continue, and Booker dominates competition, he’ll move up the draft charts into the first round.

30. Stanley Robinson– Washington Wizards: Who would I draft? Stanley Robinson. Nobody is sure about what Stanley Robinson is going to bring to a basketball game, but at his best he’s athletically gifted with an NBA body ready to play right now. With a leader and quick floor general like John Wall on his squad, I feel like you would get the best from Robinson on a consistent basis. If the Wizards are going to run, Robinson would be a nice energy player that could finish around the rim and score points on the break. Somebody has to take a chance on this guy.

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