Orlando Magic VS Boston Celtics Prediction: NBA on ESPN

A few games ago I couldn’t have imagined the Orlando Magic winning even one game, let alone two games, and now three? Yikes, I’m teetering like a kindergartner here. But it’s impossible for me to ignore what I’ve seen – two teams that completely flipped for real, Orlando taking on the confident, unbeatable, and aggressive persona that Boston used to run out to a 3-0 lead in this series. And it’s that switch that has me on the move, taking Orlando to win Game 6 and wiggle one game closer to history.

Somewhere along the line (I’m thinking between Game 3 and Game 4) the Magic decided to test the Celtics where Boston struggles most, attacking the basket. Boston’s rotations are really good, they move to the open shooter well, but with guys running out recklessly they are relatively easy to drive past. Orlando has attacked, and thus they are winning.

This game will be closer, no doubt about it, Boston isn’t going to just give up in a big time must win Game 6 at home. And they might very well win this game – I give it almost 50-50 here. But with Rasheed Wallace hurting, Big Baby in limbo, and Rajon Rondo not playing that elite basketball that skyrocketed his name to “The Best Point Guard in the NBA” lists everywhere – the 0-3 to 4-3 no chance in hell might just get Boston in the gotcha… I’ll take the points, as few as they may be.

Orlando Magic (+3.5) @ Boston Celtics

NBA Free Picks: Phoenix Suns VS LA Lakers

Despite the money coming in on Phoenix to cover as dogs, the spread has actually gone the way of the Suns – or at least the way Suns’ bettors would appreciate. I want to see it, I want to see a Suns upset, and good game on the road against a Lakers team that has been outplayed in two straight contests. But it’s tough for me to see.

I think it’s ridiculous and I can’t find a reason why, but the truth of the matter is benches play much better at home than they do on the road. I’ve never quite understood it, but it’s almost infallible. The problem for Phoenix is how much they depend on their bench. They have great players in their starting line-up, but they need big games from at least 2 bench players to beat the Lakers. Will that come from Channing Frye, Barbosa, Goran Dragic, or Dudley? They need those points, and they need them bad. The problem is, those guys don’t show up in L.A. If they want me to be wrong, if they are going to win, they will need to do something they haven’t done on the road much during these playoffs.

Kobe Bryant has been too good, and the Lakers bench also plays much better at home. If they can just keep pace with the Suns reserves, not even outplay them but keep pace, they will win and cover in Game 5. I expect them to do so, so I’m taking LA. I’ll be rooting for Phoenix.

Phoenix Suns @ LA Lakers (-7) (5-27: 9:00 PM ET – TNT)

2010 NBA Mock Draft: Lottery Picks

2010 NBA Mock Draft

Here’s my 1st Mock Draft for the 2010 NBA Draft. I’ve gone through every team making their first round pick based on who I think they will go for. In each explanation, I also tell you who I’d pick if I were selecting among. Who they will pick, who I would pick, explanation. That spells it out pretty clearly. Here goes the Lottery Picks, the first 14 picks in the draft. I’ll post the rest of my first mock next week.

1. John Wall – Washington Wizards: Who would I pick? John Wall. He’s the best NBA prospect in the draft. I would say Evan Turner was the best college basketball player in the country, and I know he’ll be a very good pro, but John Wall has that special motor and his feel for the game, his vision, and his leadership are underrated. He’s a must pick for the Wizards.

2. Derrick Favors – Philadelphia 76ers: Who would I pick? Evan Turner. I think Favors is a fantastic talent, and his upside might very well be greater than Turner’s, however Turner dominated the competition last season in a do-it-all fashion, and he’s the biggest sure thing in this draft. Turner might play the same position as Andre Iguodala but he’s a much smarter player, a much better passer, and a better shooter. If you don’t draft the best players, you are making a mistake. The 76ers weren’t in love with keeping Iggy last season, as he spent much of the pre-deadline time in trade rumors – why would you not draft a great player because he plays that same position? I see the sexiness in taking Favors, an elite NBA body, a big time upside front-court player on a team without any.

3. Evan Turner – New Jersey Nets: Who would I take? Evan Turner. The man in charge of New Jersey has a good head on his shoulders, he definitely gets it. If Turner falls to him at #3, he’ll smile and take the best college basketball player in the draft. Turner does it all for a team that has no real identity. He sees the floor very well and has great size and playmaking ability for a 2/3 player. To walk away with the biggest sure thing in the draft at #3 would be great for this 12 win team.

4. DeMarcus Cousins– Minnesota Timberwolves: Who would I take? Wes Johnson. Lets be honest, the Timberwolves aren’t great at any position. I would say they are solid at power forward, but at that spot they have two of the same guy. I would say that Al Jefferson is a great post offensive player, but his back-up, Kevin Love, is a better all around player. Jonny Flynn has some upside, and Corey Brewer showed some flashes, but neither are starters on a good team, right now. I think Wesley Johnson is a very good player that translates well to the NBA game. He shoots very well and has great size. He can play at least the 3 and the 4 in the NBA and can outshoot almost everyone at those positions. His game is refined. He can hit big shots. I think Cousins had great upside, but so do a lot of young guys with terrible attitudes that never turn out to be anything. He’s a chance, a big one, a guy I see the Wolves taking a chance on – but I’d take Wes Johnson if I were the Wolves. He’s the 4th best player in this draft.

5. Al Farouq Aminu– Sacramento Kings: Who would I take? Aminu. I think Cousins would be a good pick for the Kings. They don’t have any big question marks, and could really improve if they got a young stud center. If they have a chance to roll the dice on one of the best talents in the draft, I think they should take it. But he’s gone, and that leaves the Kings with a lot of guys to chose from. While I like Wes Johnson more as a player, and he could definitely help spread the floor for Evans, I just think Aminu’s athleticism and upside fits the best on a team with a ball dominant guard like Evans. Aminu would give them a completely different dimension off the bench at the small forward position. His upside is limitless and his athleticism is great.

6. Wes Johnson– Golden State Warriors: Who would I pick? Wes Johnson. I like Corey Maggette, but I think Wes Johnson would be a better player for this team. He does a lot of things well, can hit open shots, and has very good range – something Maggette doesn’t have. I honestly think Maggette and Ellis are very similar players, and having them on the floor at the same time doesn’t make much sense. I see Wes Johnson as a very good fit on any team, as he’s very versatile.

7. Greg Monroe– Detroit Pistons: Who would I draft? Greg Monroe. I think this would be a great pick for the Pistons. Regardless of what people say about Monroe, the kid does everything at a high level. He might not be dunking on people in the NBA, but the fact that he’s a great passer, a smart player, has a good feel for the game, and can do anything you want your PF/C to do makes him a great pick up for a Pistons team that is really missing that glue guy. He might not be an in-your-face tough guy like Dumars is after, but this kid will be a solid starter for a long time.

8. Gordon Hayward– Los Angeles Clippers: Who would I draft? Xavier Henry. I actually think these two guys are eerily similar. Both can shoot it well, but I think Xavier will end up being the better shooter down the line. Hayward is more athletic, but Henry has a very solid game. Both guys will be great #2, 3, or 4 options in a couple years.

9. Ed Davis– Utah Jazz: Who would I draft? Good question. I guess I’d take the guy I think is the best player left on the board, and that’s Henry. At the very least he can play a couple different dimensions. They would probably love Cousins, Monroe, Johnson, or Aminu to fall this far, but I don’t see any of them doing so. I have them reaching for an upside PF/C prospect in Ed Davis – a guy that probably lost some of his luster because his guards couldn’t really get him the ball, and he’s not a great low-post scorer. But he could do a lot of things for Utah, probably not fill in to Boozer’s spot, but his defensive presence, rebounding, and length makes him a decent pick. I think John Hollinger’s Player Rater doesn’t take into account the problems Davis had getting the ball from his guards at UNC. I tend to agree with what Hollinger is selling, but I disagree on Davis, I think he’ll be a solid contributor to a good team, off the bench early and maybe as a starter down the line. I still think Xavier will be the better player.

10. Avery Bradley– Indiana Pacers: Who would I draft? Eric Bledsoe. Why punish a kid for playing on the same team as the best pro prospect in college basketball? You give Bledsoe a chance to run the point at Kentucky, and I think he’s a Top 5 pick. I actually like A.J. Price, but Bledsoe has much better upside than him, and I definitely like him more than Earl Watson and TJ Ford. But I understand the lotto ticket you’re buying when you draft a guy like Bradley. Bradley’s physical talents and quickness are impressive. I don’t know how much he’ll be able to help offensively or run a team, but defensively he can help immediately. I like Bledsoe more, but I get it if the Pacers take Bradley.

11. Cole Aldrich – New Orleans Hornets: Who would I draft? Luke Babbitt. Everybody in New Orleans might as well start on the bench outside of their two point guards, Marcus Thornton, and David West. Emeka Okafor is greatly overpaid. David West is, too. The team’s two best players play the same position and both are small – tough to play together. But at least they have good something. What they need they probably will have trouble finding with the 11th pick, unless the reach for a good player that isn’t highly touted by NBA draftniks. One thing Babbitt can do is score. He can do that from many places on the floor, and that’s a great thing to team up with one of the best ball dominant guards in the NBA. Alrdrich may have been the better college player, and he does have good size and toughness, but this team doesn’t need another Emeka Okofor. One is too many, already.

12. Luke Babbitt– Memphis Grizzlies: Who would I draft? Eric Bledsoe. What the grizzlies don’t need is “upside” players. No, no – they need help fill in the cracks NOW players. This team definitely overshot their pre-season predictions, even with a tough 2nd half record. They are pretty solid up front, and they have depth with last years’ lottery pick, Thabeet. What this team really needs is to just get older, and get a point guard to either take Conley’s spot, or at least spell him. Mike’s not bad, but he’s not real good either. The Grizzlies are said to be in love with Babbit, so I say they take him here, but Bledsoe would be a solid option if Babbit’s off the board, and I still think Xavier Henry is the best player on the board. I don’t know if the Grizzlies need an offensive first scorer than doesn’t guard well – but what do I know?

13. Daniel Orton– Toronto Raptors: Who would I draft? Ekpe Udoh or Henry. They say Orton has huge upside, and lots of teams love him. But tell me how a guy can hardly get minutes for his college team and be a lottery pick that year? I’ve rarely seen that practice turn into success, but this could be the first. I know Orton has elite athleticism. While the Raptors will need help down low, especially with Bosh on his way out, I don’t think Orton is the answer. Amir Johnson is a solid enough “upside” guy that is already on their roster. I think Udoh is a guy that could help right now. He showed me a lot against Duke, and I think he would be a solid match with Andrea Bargnani, the one guy the Raptors will try to build around. I still like Henry a lot, and think taking the best player on the board is always a good move – but DeRozan is that same guy.

14. Xavier Henry– Houston Rockets: Who would I draft? Xavier Henry. I know they don’t need Henry – but looking at their roster, and what’s left in this draft, what do the Rockets need that can be filled here? A real Center? Not with Yao coming back, and Samhan is my highest rated guy left – probably not the best pick at #14. Hassan Whiteside has gobs of talent, but he seems a bit like a donkey if you ask me. Not that donkeys can’t flourish in a me-first league, but Houston is smart, and they don’t pick guys with those problems. I think Henry will be a good player in the NBA. Not a role player, a good player. He needs to grow up a little bit, physically, but he’s smart and he can help any team right out of the gates with his basketball IQ, his ability to shoot, and his versatility. Finally X goes off the board.

Boston Celtics VS Orlando Magic: NBA Eastern Conference Finals

Like I said in my weekly newsletter, the Magic are lucky to be here. They fended off the broom with a whole lot of luck and dining on the worst game Boston has played since the Cavaliers blew them out early in their series with the Cavs. They needed some big time shots by JJ Redick, a bank three by Jameer Nelson (from the wing, meaning it was both off line and way long), a stagnant offense from the Celtics, and mediocre defense from a Boston team that has stopped everyone during these playoffs. Oh, and they needed overtime and all those things to come out victorious. Seriously.

If that’s not enough, how about the fact that Boston is better than Orlando. If this series hasn’t shown that, it’s shown nothing at all. Boston may be older, but they are so much wiser. Everybody is playing at the top of their games, and offensively they are too tough for Orlando to deal with.

Dwight Howard won’t go off for 30+ points against in Game 5, I can all but guarantee that. Rajon Rondo won’t play his worst game of the post-season, and the Celtics will play with more precision on both sides of the ball. If Orlando can stick out the Celtics’ best shot – then they might have a chance to pull a Boston Red Sox comeback on the Boston Celtics – the first time ever.

However, I don’t see any of those things happening. It all ends tonight in Orlando. The Celtics are a 4-point dog against a team they’ve beaten twice at home. Boston is a better road team than they are at home. Boston is better. After a Game 4 win got them out of sweep-mode, you can bet the Magic will slow down a little in Game 5. Take the easy win here, Boston by 8 to 12 points is my guess.

Boston Celtics (+4) @ Orlando Magic (5-26: 8:30 PM ET – ESPN)

LA Lakers VS Phoenix Suns (5-25: 9:00 PM ET – TNT)

The Phoenix Suns stepped up their intensity and brought it to the Lakers on both sides of the floor in Game 3, assuring at least five games against the favorites out West. Most impressive was the Suns turnovers, just 7 on the night, which really limited the Lakers’ easy buckets. I don’t even think the Suns played nearly as well as they can offensively – aside from Amare doing work attacking the hoop against those Lakers’ bigs,  Phoenix missed a lot of open and easy shots, especially in the first half. I think they can play a lot better. But will they?

LA Lakers (+1) @ Phoenix Suns (5-23: 9:00 PM ET – TNT)

I have to take the Lakers, as much as I hate it. I’d love to be wrong here, love to see the Lakers get pummeled big time and head back to LA with their collective tails between their legs – but I don’t see it happening. LA was too good at defending that pick and roll in Game’s 1 and 2, and too dominate down low.

I don’t see Brook Lopez going off for 20 points on 8 of 10 shooting, and I don’t seem they continuing to be stingy with the ball and get anywhere close to just 7 turnovers again. If they don’t sit right around double that, I’ll be stunned.

The Lakers have always done a good job of stepping up their game after a tough loss (even though that didn’t quite happen against Oklahoma). They seem to figure things out pretty well, and you know they have to attack the post. Kobe continues to kill the Suns, averaging over 30 points a game in this series – but it will be Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom beating up on the Suns’ front court if LA wants to walk out of Phoenix up 3-1. I think it’s probably – and while I’ll be rooting against my bet, the smart money is on the Lakers.

MLB Free Friday Picks: Baseball Betting Previews

Inter-league play starts today! I was 2-2 yesterday, as I nailed the Rockies/Astros game, but took a tough one on the nose betting on Liriano and the Twins to beat the Red Sox. I should have walked away from yesterday’s games a winner, 3-1 to be exact, but the Atlanta Braves scored 7 runs in the 9th inning against the Reds – finishing with a walk-off grand-slam to beat Cincinnati 10-9. How can a guy predict things like that? Hanson had trouble at home, Leake pitched awesome, 9-3 going into the final half of the 9th – and I walk away without my big +money payout. Unreal. Such is sports, I guess. Here’s my heads up on tomorrow’s games…

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (-131) (5-21: 7:05 PM ET) (Lackey vs. Hamels): The Red Sox are doing just fine, but some damage done against the National League – especially a powerhouse like Philadelphia – would do wonders for their confidence going forward. With John Lackey on the mound, I’m not so sure the Red Sox are as scary as the Phillies. I think Lackey is easier to hit than Hamels, at least in your first at-bats against the two. Cole is pretty unique, and because of his success the first time on the bump against an opponent, I have to stick with the Phillies at home against the Sox.

Florida Marlins (-105) @ Chicago White Sox (5-21: 8:05 PM ET) (Nolasco vs. Buehrle): Peavy ended up pitching on Thursday, so that leaves Mark Buehrle on the bump for the White Sox. I think Buehrle has a chance to pitch well against the aggressive Marlins, but Nolasco has been on fire lately, allowing just 16 hits during his last 3 starts (19 innings). Mark has really struggled of late, going 0-2 in his last 3 with an ERA over 6. The DH won’t help the Marlins too much, as they don’t have a lot of power sitting on their bench – but Nolasco will limit the White Sox enough to get the job done for the road team.

Major League Baseball Picks: MLB Thursday Preview

I have three baseball games on the schedule for Thursday, so let’s get right to them.

Cincinnati Reds (+147) @ Atlanta Braves (5-20: 1:05 PM ET ) (Leake vs. Hanson): Mike Leake was drafted in the 1st round with the 8th pick just last year. Right now he’s 22 years old and 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA for the Cincinnati Reds, playing his home games at one of the best hitter parks in the league. You don’t hear much about him because he’s sitting in Cincinnati – but this kid is legit. He’s finished 6 innings every time out and has given up more than 3 runs just once, less than 3 runs 4 times. He’s started just 7 games. Tommy Hanson is 3-3, but his numbers are even better than Leake’s (2.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) and he’s just 23 years old. Talk about two talented pitchers looking to rule the National League for the next decade. This is one of my favorite match-ups of the week. These are two of the hottest teams in the NL, as the Braves are 7-3 over their last 10 and the Reds even better at 8-2. Leake has been money on the road, winning each of his last 2 starts, shutting down the Cubs in Chicago then out-dueling Adam Wainwright in a win over St. Louis. Hanson had one bad inning his last time out, getting the loss against Arizona. But Hanson has just been decent at home this year, while Leake has been better on the road. The Reds offense has also been more productive. The money is in their favor as well. I like the Reds on the road.

Minnesota Twins (+130) @ Boston Red Sox (5-20: 7:10 PM ET) (Liriano vs. Lester): Jon Lester has yet to pick up a win against Minnesota in 4 tries over the last 3 years. Francisco Liriano recently shut down the Red Sox, pitching 7 shutout innings in Boston. Boston’s well publicized demise is a little much, to be honest, as they’re still 21-20 with 3/4s of the season still to come. But a power lefty that pitches well on the road, yeah, I like Minnesota’s chances.

Colorado Rockies (-140) @ Houston Astros (UNDER 6.5) (5-20: 8:05 PM ET) (Jimenez vs. Oswalt): I don’t know which team is more disappointing. I mean, Houston was supposed to be bad, but this bad? They look like the worst team in baseball, and 14-26 in the National League Central seems pretty disgusting. Only the Orioles have a worse record, and at least they are stuck in a division with Tampa Bay, New York, Boston, and Toronto – a little different fire power there. But Colorado should be good – and they have lost 6 of their last 10, and dropped to 19-20 after a solid start to the season. Ubaldo Jimenez is on the mound, but they’ll have to score to win – though not much. Jimenez already has a no-no on his resume this season, and his .99 WHIP and 1.12 ERA are more than impressive. This game should be extremely low scoring. Roy Oswalt has a history of shutting down the Rockies while Ubaldo has a history of shutting down the Astros (and everyone else this year). I’m making two bets here. I like the under, despite the low-low number of 6.5 – and I like the Rockies. They win with Jimenez on the mound.

Phoenix Suns VS LA Lakers: NBA Free Picks

I liked the Suns to go for a cover in Game 1, but the Lakers looked like the Thunder Cats, The Bulls circa the 90′s, and Gladiator all fit into one purple and yellow uniform. And the Suns went the way of the toilet water – it wasn’t pretty. But that’s just one game, right? This won’t be a sweep, will it?

Phoenix Suns (+6.5) @ LA Lakers: No way. The Suns have played too well over the last few months and the Lakers have played too mediocre to continue to dominate in the fashion they handed out butt kickings in Game 1. At one point the game was 23-24, and after that, it was no longer a game.

But I expect Game 2 to be a little different. Game 1 was a perfect scenario for the Lakers and everything went wrong for the Suns. The Lakers shot lights out. The Suns didn’t. The Lakers hit lots of threes, even Kobe was draining from deep. The Suns had their lowest 3pt % of the playoffs. Freaking Lamar Odom had 19 and 19 – are you serious?

The Bigs are going to give Phoenix trouble, no doubt about it. Pau Gasol is awesome (and that’s something I hate saying because of his dumb whiney-pouty-10-year-old-face). However, the Suns still have a solid game plan to give the Lakers trouble. No way Kobe goes for 40 again while everyone else in LA’s line-up plays flawlessly. I just hope the Suns stick to their guns and find out what happens.

I think they have a chance, even though Phil Jackson is 46-0 in playoff series where his team has won the first game of the match-up.

Boston Celtics VS Orlando Magic Pick & Preview: NBA on ESPN

Listen, I believe the Magic will even out the series. I’m pretty big on giving a percent of likeliness, and I’d say the Magic have a 70% chance to win on Tuesday Night. They are playing at home, down 1-0, have rest and youth on their side, and the Celtics have been known to put up questionable performances here and there. This might be here, and it’s definitely there.

I don’t see the Orlando Magic going  5 for 22 from three-point-land again. And despite the Celtics quality defense, the Magic are going to cut down on those 18 turnovers.

There are lots of things that are going Orlando’s way, everything besides the fact that Boston is playing Championship level basketball, and right now, they are as good as they’ve been since their title run in Year 1 of the Big Three. KG and Rasheed still pull Dwight away from the key (despite his 5 blocks last game) and they can play great post defense as a team (Dwight 3 for 10 from the floor in Game 1). The Celtics are old, and haven’t gotten the rest that Orlando has been afforded after sweeping the Hawks…

But I don’t see the Celtics coming out flat against the Magic – it just doesn’t make sense. They aren’t favored in this series, and they know they can’t take the Celtics lightly. I’m giving Boston a 30% chance to win outright, and those 7.5 points just barely give them the edge over Orlando against the spread. These two teams have played a lot of close games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if another one came right down to the wire.

Boston Celtics (+7.5) @ Orlando Magic (5-18: 8:30 PM ET – ESPN)

Boston Celtics Vs. Orlando Magic Pick: NBA Conference Finals Preview

Well, the Orlando Magic had absolutely no trouble with the Atlanta Hawks, making quick work of Joe Johnson and company to the point where the Hawks looked like a JV squad. Sweep. Boston had a handful of solid games against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and might single handily be to blame for LeBron James’ absence from the Cavs’ roster next season. Awesome – they won in 6. This all comes down to one hell of a match-up in the Eastern Conference, right? Easy, now…..

Boston Celtics (+7) @ Orlando Magic: This is a tough one for me, but I’m going with my eyes, and what I see with those emerald greens is a color reflection – Green indeed. There’s one team playing better basketball than anyone else in the Eastern Conference, and that’s Boston. Sometimes a team can play tricks, but Boston isn’t kidding around, they are playing some elite basketball.

Rajon Rondo is playing as well as he’s ever played and KG is looking healthier and healthier every game. Rasheed Wallace and his cups are even making a showing, and the rest of the guys are doing work as well.

Orlando may have dominated the Hawks, but I promise Boston will come out with a little more fire than that Atlanta squad. The match-up isn’t in the Celtics favor like it was against Cleveland. They really don’t have a post that will drive and draw fouls on Dwight Howard – and that’s a big deal against Orlando. But what Boston will do is have tough defenders on Dwight (Perkins, KG, Wallace) and not give up too much room to the shooters out wide. They also have enough bench players to keep the Orlando Magic from running them out of the building.

This series is going to be close, and I assume the game scores will be as well. Boston has lost 5 of their last 6 games to Orlando, but only one of those losses were by more than 8 points. You add that fact to the truth that Boston is playing as well as they have since their title run – and yeah, the Celtics and a touchdown seems like a solid option to me.

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