North Carolina Tar Heels @ Duke Blue Devils: Free Pick & Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels (+14.5) @ Duke Blue Devils: I’m taking Carolina for three reasons. 1 – The Blue Devils rely almost completely on their three point stroke to score points – any time that is the case, there’s a pretty good chance they don’t cover a 14.5 point spread. 2 – The Tar Heels may have played poorly this season, struggling often after a solid start, but they are a very long and athletic team, and a long defensive team makes it tough for 3-point shooting teams to get off easy shots, making it much easier to cover big spreads. 3 – This is North Carolina/Duke and the Tar Heels need something to hang their season’s hat on. They have been bad, didn’t even get close to meeting expectations, and moving right to next season is probably the best thing for this young team – but that means that they are playing their season in one game, and that is a huge motivational factor.

Also, despite rankings and success over the past decades of this epic rivalry, the level of seasonal success has rarely mattered when these two teams go head to head. It’s unlike any rivalry in sports, and because of that I’ll always take the big underdog in a situation like this.

Are the Blue Devils the much better team? You bet. But does the better team always win? Nope. In rivalry games, the upset chance grow even larger. I like the Heels to cover easily at Duke.