2009 NFL Fantasy Football Predictions: Season Review

Well, the predictions I got correct, I marked in red ink in my review statement below. The ones I got wrong gave me the blues, so I used blue. Neat, huh? As you’ll realize, I sure end up using a lot of blue ink. I had some good calls, and a couple of my misses were oh so close, but in the end, it was a tough fantasy season for the self-proclaimed fantasy master. Here’s the review…

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

Well, I must say, I came up a hair short on yardage. MJD was a beast, no doubt about it, but I said 1800+ yards and the heart of the Jaguars came up with 1765 and 16 touchdowns. He did end up as the #2 running back in fantasy football, just ahead of Adrian Peterson. Maybe if Jack Del Rio wasn’t such a dink and gave the guy 9 touches in each of the team’s games against Tennessee, maybe then he’d gotten to 1800 – I was wrong, but in a good way.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

Well I doubt he would have gotten to 6 touchdowns, as the Hawks only scored 5 as a team. No, but seriously, Nate would have easily gotten to 70 and 900 if he didn’t bust his knee up in Week 14′s loss to the Texans, ending his season early with 63 catches for 812 yards and 3 scores. His first 5 weeks were solid, after that, pretty damn good considering he was on the Seahawks, but just not good enough for red ink.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

Donnie came out and hurt himself right off the bat. And I’m not sure if he was even close to full speed until Week 5. Then he got caught in the Rams terrible passing attack. Another mid-season injury slowed him a bit, and while the sophomore did catch 5 touchdowns, his 47 grabs for 589 yards were both lower than last seasons totals.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

Every guy played more than 12 games. Brett and Drew played them all, and McNabb only missed 2 games. Big Ben missed 1. What can you say, they fought off age and injury history and questionable line work. Well, Brett and Drew had great offensive lines. Anyway, wrong again.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

Not  possible, as Culpepper didn’t get the job in camp, but go down to option 5b…

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

Stafford got the job out of camp, and he threw for 13 touchdowns, so I win. Sure, I needed a little injury help, but those injuries also kept his interceptions down as Matt threw 20 picks in 10 games, pretty impressive. He did throw nearly half of his TDs in one crazy game against the Browns, 5 to be precise, but he didn’t quite get to 15…

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

So close, but the text color is still blue. Steven Jackson finished 2nd in rushing yards with 1416 yards on the ground despite missing a couple games. Ryan Grant finished 7th. Frank Gore had 1110 yards despite missing 3 complete games, and 3.5 quarters of another. LT was a bust, but he did put up double digit touchdowns once again. It was close, but didn’t get to red.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

True. How else do you explain Larry Johnson tweeting some crap about how his dad would be a better coach than his actual head coach, then getting fired because of it, then getting hired by a playoff team, then rushing for 100 yards only to not really be used at all when it matters? And then the Brett Favre story… Speaks for itself. And what about Mark Sanchez and his decision to go pro working out while he picks at his former coach for making the same decision a year later? You need more, or are you just going to go ahead and believe me? Alright, linemen are almost unknown to most NFL fans, yet Michael Oher (you know him now) has a movie made about his life and it becomes one of the holiday season’s most loved films. Show business folks, there’s something just like it!

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

83 catches, nope. A very consistent and productive year for the old man, and while he finished lower on the final TE rankings than many predicted, he had a very solid season and is still a top notch pass catcher.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

Reggie ended up with 150 fantasy points while Pierre went for 183. So I was wrong. Neither guy was great. Reggie looked good against the Cardinals, but he’s always shown something big in playoff games. The guy is certainly dynamic. But I was wrong again.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

Hahaha. Wrong. Boy Matt sucked this season, probably a lot to do with his offensive line and their garbage offensive scheme, definitely wrong on this one.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

This should prove that the pre-season isn’t a place to judge offensive stars. Wrong again, Trent didn’t even make it out of the season as a starter.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

Eddie didn’t improve on anything. Josh McDaniels lied to me, and I bought in completely, getting Royal in almost every single league I participated in. As you can guess, I didn’t dominate many leagues this season.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

DeAngelo spent much of the season banged up, and didn’t get close to 1500 yards. Apparently it’s tough to go 1500+ back to back, as the wear and tear gets you down. Williams missed 3 full games as well as pieces of others and the cat managed just 1117 yards on the ground this season.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

Well, yet another knee injury put Ronnie in the hospital once again, and the guy managed to miss 7 more games. He was over half way toward 1400 yards after 9 games, just under 750 with 8 touchdowns, so I was on to something – but injuries are part of the game, and Ronnie definitely didn’t get to my projections.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

No. I’m not even going to go into it. Holt was not even the best WR on his team. In fact, Mike Thomas finished with more fantasy point, and the rookie started as the #4 receiver. TO finished 27th amongst WRs, and Portis was a gong show. There it is, wrong on all accounts. Age is a factor, but then again, it might be getting stuck in a terrible offense that got these old guys down.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

Only Knowshon Moreno, with 947 yards rushing, finished in the top 20. Beanie Wells got some nice production late, but his season only got him 176 carries and it’s tough to get in the Top 20 with that. After Beanie, it was LeSean McCoy finishing 35th in rushing with 635 yards. I got this one on the dot, last year was just crazy.

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

The Hawks sucked, and while Jones had a couple good games, he managed just 2 touchdowns, and even though Mora insisted on giving him way more carries than the much more talented Justin Forsett, Jones didn’t get reach 700 yards this season, wrong again!

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

Yikes. It’s predictions like this that make it a tough year for fantasy Championships. I think I won just a single league, and it wasn’t because I drafted McFadden. Well, I did draft McFadden, but I dropped him for Ricky Williams and got to ride that out nicely.

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

Nope, and Brandon didn’t ever really look that good. Ahmad Bradshaw was easily the best looking back for the Giants, and I don’t know what it was, but Jacobs certainly struggled all season long. Another miss – tough prediction year for me, that’s for sure.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

The young dynamic back couldn’t stay on the field, missing big portions of games and getting rested for the playoffs (where he dominated the Eagles in Round 1). He finished with 116 carries for 685 rushing yards, but just 19 catches. If the Cowboys knew what was good for them, they would have made my prediction accurate. He ended up 40th amongst RBs, actually 3 spots lower than his average draft position amongst his position.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

Vincent was awesome over the first 9 weeks of the season, getting targeted early and often and making the most of his looks. He went over 4 times out of his first 8 games, caught touchdowns in 6 of his first 8 games, and managed 7 scores over the first half. Vincent caught just two more scores over the final 8 games as his targets went way down during weeks 10-13, but he ende up with 9 more catches, nearly 100 more yards, and 2 more touchdowns meaning he made me look smart. Few and far between, I know.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

He didn’t blow up the fantasy world, but Mark won 9 and got the Jets to the playoffs. He also won his first two playoff games, and while people continue to show his poor touchdown to interception ratio and even go as far as to compare him to JaMarcus Russell, I’d like you to remember that I think he’ll be great one day, and at least he made my first prediction true.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

Slaton missed his last 5 games, but that wouldn’t have mattered. After a few fumbles early, the Texans got this bright idea that they would just eliminate one of their most productive offensive players from the field. This didn’t work that well, and backs continued to fumble, but at least Steve Slaton owners had suicidal looks in their collective eye after Week 8.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

Got one right on the mark. Beanie finished 39th amongst running backs while the guy everybody wanted to forget put up pretty good statistics throughout, had nice consistency in the passing game, and ended up 17th amongst RBs, 20+ spots better than the guy drafted higher than him in every league.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

14th – so, nope. The Chargers started pretty slow, picked it up big time in the middle, then held on late, but were never a Top notch fantasy defense during the season. Wrong again.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

Weird, Boldin didn’t stay healthy all season, and despite playing through pain often, the dynamic WR was visibly hobbled throughout the season. White started slow, but picked it up late and passed Boldin. White finished 10th amongst WRs while Boldin was 19th.

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

Nope. Ward finished well behind his own teammate and ended up 50th amongst RBs, even lower than that low RB draft position.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

Well, Matt didn’t double Mark’s touchdowns – and Matt was terrible, but he did finish 40 points ahead of Sanchez in fantasy points. Matt’s 17 touchdowns didn’t double Mark’s 13 scores, but Matt was definitely the better value, though disappointing entirely.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

Clark #1 – Gates #3 – Witten #5 – Tony G #6 – well, it was close, but I pulled one off here. Vernon Davis and Brent Celek crashed the party though, becoming great value picks for those that took chances on them late, Davis was #2 and Celek #4.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

No, but I’m telling you, Gonzo would have had a great season if he played more than half a series on offense. Tough injury for me there too. Eddie Royal didn’t – but Vincent and DeSean blew well by Braylon this season. Two out of four doesn’t make a prediction come true.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…