Looking Back: Josh Revisits his 2009 Preseason NFL Predictions

It was an interesting season to say the least.  More than any other sport the fortunes of NFL teams rise and fall on their ability to avoid injury or have players on their roster that can step up to fill a void.  This same volatility makes predicting statistical achievement particularly difficult.  That said, the 2009 season was not my best effort.  Of my 30 preseason predictions I hit less than 50%.  From the look of things I have an innate ability to predict TE production but stay away if I’m talking QBs or Defense.  In terms of RBs and WRs … flip a coin.  I will say this for myself, however … when I miss, I miss HUGE (see Parker, Willie and Johnson, Larry).  So if you started your season by following my advice, I would like to say I’m sorry … and you’re welcome … and I hope we can do it again next year.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

Not quite … Palmer finished as the #17 fantasy QB and compiled just 3,094 yards passing and 21 TDs … Ouch.  Tough to predict the Bengals newfound appreciation for the running game but Cedric Benson proved he is for real.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

A disappointing sophomore campaign for Smith, as he was falling short even before his season ended with a gruesome knee injury.  His final tally was 1,156 yards from scrimmage, 40 catches and just 5 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

Another predication derailed by injury, Cooley was playing well when his season was cut short.  That said, he would have needed a huge second half to leap above the production of proven studs Gonzo and Gates.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

Ugh, the Hawks were tough to root for this year but Nasty Nate was fixin’ to make me look good with this pick until his season ended with – you guessed it – an injury.  Burleson finished with 63 catches for 812 yards and 3 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

Wrong, wrong, and wrong … the guys I thought would stay healthy got hurt, the one I thought would get hurt stayed healthy (mostly).  Another solid year from Kurt Warner kept Leinart off the field for another season.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

Yikes, there are bad predictions and then there are my preseason efforts.  Before his untimely death mid-season, Chris Henry really wasn’t a major piece of the puzzle in Cincy (see Palmer, Carson).

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4^th round? … yes please!

A nice season for Colston overall, though he fell short of my lofty goals for him posting 70 catches for 1,074 yards and 9 TDs.  Though still Drew Brees’ favorite target, other threats kept Colston’s production in check.

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

Were it not for the breakout campaign of Percy Harvin, Nicks would have been the most productive rookie WR.  As it was he came on strong late in the season, earning a starting spot and finishing with 790 yards and 6 TDs.

9.  Speaking of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

As expected, Sanchez’s rookie season was a roller coaster ride.  He was brilliant at times and horrendous at times, but thanks to a terrific NY ground attack he had some protection on his way to 15 total TDs.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

Can we just move along? … there are only so many times you can say you’re sorry before it starts to lose meaning, after all.  Not-so-fast Willie Parker was leap-frogged on the depth chart and totaled only 453 yards and 1 TD.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

One of my few pieces of advice that worked out for owners this year, I myself grabbed Grant in the mid-rounds of a draft and was rewarded with his 1,253 rushing yards and 11 TDs … can’t beat that value.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

Tough season for the former Mountaineer … Slaton was in and out of coach Gary Kubiak’s doghouse for fumbling and despite a nice mid-season stretch finished with just 854 total yards and may have lost his starting gig.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

Garbage, thy name is Clinton Portis … I have been a big fan of Portis since he came into the league but he is a lot less entertaining when his play isn’t backing up his antics.  An uninspiring 494 yards and 1 TD before going on IR.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

When you’ve been wrong as many times as I was, the victories seem that much sweeter … V-Jax finished up the season with 68 catches for 1,167 yards and 9 TDs.  He also made some of the best catches of 2009.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20^th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

Now we’re talking … Vernon Davis was the monster we all envisioned several years ago when he was coming out of Maryland.  The centerpiece of the 49ers passing attack finished with 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

Once again, you’re welcome.  Amazing that a guy that snared 11 TDs can fly under the radar but with Sydney Rice’s breakout campaign and Percy Harvin working out of the slot, Shiancoe was Brett Favre’s red zone BFF.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

The jury is still out on Coffee (huge preseason, invisible regular season), but Bradshaw and Stewart proved their worth by out-performing their starting counterparts.  Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list as well.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

Somewhere along the way coach Mike Singletary must have sold his soul (somewhere Mike Martz is cackling) … The 49ers went to a spread attack mid-season and Gore’s numbers suffered.  Still, he ran up 1,526 yards and 13 TDs.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

Gong!!! … Moreno was what I expected him to be, a decent chain-mover without a ton of big-play ability.  Still, if the Broncos lean more heavily on the youngster in the future, he could improve on his 947 yards and 7 TDs

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

Well, Roy Williams did not command much respect but thankfully for Witten owners Miles Austin arrived in a big way.  The reliable tight end improved on his catches (94) and receiving yards (1,030) but racked up just 2 TDs.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

CJ – Steven Jackson – Barber – Hightower – Lynch is what I meant … but with AP, MJD, Ray Rice, Thomas Jones, and Frank Gore taking 5 of the top 6 spots, the power of the fade is evident.  CJ owners, now is the time to sell high.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

Tough to call a season in which he caught 97 passes for 1,092 yards and 13 TDs a disappointment, but Fitz’s numbers fell off a bit this season.  That said, if Leinart is running the show next year they could slip even further.

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

The kid is legit as a dual threat, runs tough between the tackles and is deadly in space.  I undersold him as a top-15 back … Rice finished #4 behind CJ, AP and MJD and totalled 2,041 total yards, 78 catches and 8 TDs.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

Nope … not close.  The Chargers were crippled early with the loss of all-world DT Jamal Williams.  A less-than-healthy Shawne Merriman also resulted in a less-than-consistent pass rush which kills a fantasy D.

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

Ah, I was wondering where all those destructive injuries had gone.  Leon started off the season as his dynamic self, but his landing on IR opened the door for rookie Shonn Greene to prove his worth, especially this postseason.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

True and true … a good predication but not overly useful to fantasy owners.  The pathetic excuse for a running game in Philly ties any RB’s value to their receptions.  I like McCoy going forward, but the Eagles can be tough to watch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

MoJo was very reliable in his first season as the starter in Jacksonville.  That said, if they don’t get him some help on offense expect to see his YPC averages slip as the season wears on.  I’ll take the 1,765 total yards and 16 TDs, though.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

Didn’t happen … and as a result the 49ers will head into another season not sure if they have a true franchise QB on their roster.  I don’t see Alex Smith’s ceiling being much higher than we saw this year, Davis deserves a shot.

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

(Patting self on back) … Denver – 947, New England – 757, Tampa Bay – 821, Cleveland – 862 … Those are the high totals for RBs on those teams.  That said, things look brighter in Denver (Moreno) and Cleveland (Harrison).

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

(Slapping self in face) … Serves me right for reaching far enough to include LJ in my predictions … And by the way, the most talented player on the Chiefs roster was Jamaal Charles … Can we just agree to forget about this one?

2009-2010 NFL Total Wins Predictions Review

Hey, so if you didn’t catch it, earlier this season I predicted total wins based off lines at The Greek Sportsbook, and since the season is over, I figured I might as well go back and show everyone how well I did. I only did predictions for teams alphabetically fitting in the Arizona-New York zone – but that gives me 22 chances to be right or wrong… I pulled out 13 victories and 9 losses – and some of which I got right on the button. Check out the review of yet another winner!

1. Arizona Cardinals (Under 8.5 wins -130) (7): (Loss) The Cardinals surprised me, I must admit. I guess I expected more from the Seahawks, about the same from the 49ers, and a better job from the Cardinals opponents. But Kurt came back and tossed the ball around like the All Pro that he is. The Cards won 10 games.
2. Atlanta Falcons (Over 8.5 wins +110) (10): (WINNER) As I said before the season started, “I don’t expect much out of Tampa. The Panthers rarely put out 2 good seasons in a row,” which set the Falcons up for their first back to back winner in team history. They really fought big injuries though, and the Falcons needed a win in Week 17 to get a half game over the hump. I’ll take it!
3. Baltimore Ravens (Over 8.5 wins -150) (10): (WINNER)  I predicted the Ravens to be a Top 2 team in the AFC North, and they finished right at #2, just a half win over the hump for a big time victory. That finish got the Ravens to the playoffs where they upset the Patriots before getting trounced by the Colts. Another winner.
4. Buffalo Bills (Under 7.5 wins +110) (7): (WINNER) Buffalo fired their offensive coordinator before the season started, and I almost cashed my check from this one. But they fought hard and a rushing attack led by Fred Jackson got them going late in the season, and they managed 6 wins. Good enough for me, I win again!
5. Carolina Panthers (Under 8.5 -145) (8): (WINNER) It is what it is, and under John Fox, two good seasons in a row is a tough thing to come by. Injuries and a depleted defensive line made it tough on the Panthers, oh, and so did that guy Jake Delhomme, he fell in love with interceptions this season.
6. Chicago Bears (Under 8.5 +135) (7): (WINNER) Jay Cutler wasn’t enough, and while the Bears finished well, they just didn’t have the ball control they had last season, and had not chance at .500 with a handful of games to go.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (Over 7.5 wins +125) (8): (WINNER) The Bengals were a huge surprise to most people this season, but a certain someone I know thought they’d get to .500. They even one-upped me, getting to 10-6, and doing it by sweeping the AFC North, something that rarely happens.
8. Cleveland Browns (Under 6.5 wins -130) (5): (WINNER) Well, I said the Browns would get lucky and win 5 games. Amazing. Now they’re in a spot to possibly draft a franchise quarterback, again… Mike Holmgren will be making sure the Browns don’t hit the under 6.5 win mark again next season, but I don’t know, seems like a good bet to me already!
9. Dallas Cowboys (Under 9.5 wins -130) (8): (Loss) The Cowboys looked good toward the end of the season, and beat down the Eagles in Week 17 (and in the playoffs for that matter) to get to 11 wins and finish three wins ahead of where I predicted them to be. Dang.
10. Denver Broncos (Under 6.5 wins -115) (5): (Loss) Well, I don’t know what I was thinking. I expected more from the Broncos than most, and I don’t know what I was on while writing this portion of my predictions, but I have to own up – the Broncos nearly busted the over by game 6 – and then the wheels came off, but they covered that total anyway.
11. Detroit Lions (Over 4.5 wins -135) (7): (Loss) I thought they’d turn it around a bit. Whoops. What can I say, some year they’re going to have to do it.
12. Green Bay Packers (Over 8.5 wins -145) (11): (WINNER) The Packers schedule looked cushy, and indeed it was, as the Pack got to the 11 win mark that I predicted them to be at. They played well against good teams, but more importantly, they won just about every game they were supposed to win.
13. Houston Texans (Over 8.5 wins +125) (9) WINNER)  Right on the number again, the Texans played really good football at times this season, but just couldn’t finish the job in some close games. Still, their 9 wins gave me yet another W here.
14. Indianapolis Colts (Under 10.5 wins -180) (8): (Loss) This was a big time MISS as the Colts are probably the favorite to be celebrating their trip to the Super Bowl – but don’t overlook Karma, the Jets are in town, again, and it could get ugly. Still, the Colts had an amazing season, could have probably won 16 if they didn’t slop out and rest their starters late.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (Over 8.5 wins +130) (10): (Loss) Oh Jacksonville – so many times they had the playoffs in site with a mediocre team on the docket – but they managed to lose to some bad teams, and ended with 7 wins on the season, not enough for me to win.
16. Kansas City Chiefs (Under 6.5 -165) (5): (WINNER) The Chiefs competed at points, were terrible during some weeks, and finished pretty strong behind a tough run game led by Jamaal Charles. Gotta like that. Will this team take a step toward the playoffs next season? Don’t overlook them! However, their steps in the right direction weren’t big enough, and they won just 4 games – giving me an easy win.
17. Miami Dolphins (Over 7.5 +115) (9): (Loss) Miami certainly had a chance despite losing Ronnie Brown for the 2nd half of the season and Chad Pennington for most of the year, but they blew it with three straight losses to finish 7-9. Thanks a lot clowns.
18. Minnesota Vikings (Over 9.5 -105) (10): (WINNER)  Well I was right about this team, they were much improved. But I was wrong about the reason- I didn’t think Brett would make all the difference, and figured Sage Rosenfels could do nearly as well. Ha. Sometimes I miss. Brett has been unreal this season, probably his best season ever – and the dude just rocked 40 years. Amazing. Luckily, I can be wrong about Brett and right about this total – winner! winner!
19. New England Patriots (Under 11.5 wins +120) (11): (WINNER) I thought they’d win 11, and they went and won 10. I picked the under in a tough one. I got it. New England had chances to win in most games they played but had some tough bounces go against them, and didn’t have that magic they had two years ago. Maybe it’s because they traded their best defensive player for a 2011 draft pick. Weird.
20. New Orleans Saints (Over 8.5 wins -140) (9): (WINNER) I don’t like the Saints, but they’ll be better defensively this coming season. That should get them another win or two. Offensively, I actually think they’ll commit more to the run game, and that will help keep their defense off the field. Is Brees still going to throw the ball all over the field? You bet, but Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will share a backfield that should be pretty productive. They still have a questionable secondary, but there are very winable games out there and I think their luck shifts a bit this coming season.
21. New York Giants (Over 9.5 wins -140) (11): (Loss)  Who knew the Giants would quit? Not me, I was wrong, but this is the kind of wrong I’m happy about. In fact, thinking of Tom Couglin’s dumb red pissed off face is enough for me to cheers the Giants failures! Sometimes when you lose, you really win!
22. New York Jets (Under 7.5 wins +115) (6): (Loss) The Jets were better than I thought, definitely, they started hot then looked like they might very well finish under the total mark – but then they won 5 of 6 to get into the playoffs at 9-7 – and now look at them, riding the hot lava zone all the way to the AFC Championship. Go Karma Kings!

Georgetown Hoyas VS Pittsburgh Panthers: College Basketball Preview

Nobody seems to believe in these Pittsburgh Panthers. Despite beating three top teams in the Big East, in back to back to back games, the Panthers are still favored by just one point over a Georgetown team that really has one top win this season, and that was a 3-point win over a UConn team that has currently dropped three straight games. Well, that right there is enough for me to take Pitt.

Those three straight teams that Pitt upset in the middle of their current 8 game winning streak, try Syracuse, Cincinnati, and UConn. The Panthers did fall to Indiana earlier this season, but then again, the Hoyas were ousted by Old Dominion in Mid-December as well. Pitt has also beaten Georgetown three straight times, covering in all three ball games. But that’s all history, and that really means very little – so lets look at how each team is winning their games.

The Hoyas are putting up more points than they have in years’ passed, and that’s because they are letting their guards shoot the ball more freely, and their big man, Greg Monroe, is a great passer form the inside out. But while many believe the Hoyas have a big advantage down low, it’s hard for me to agree, as the Panthers fight as hard as any team in the nation. Their team rebounding is great, as they work for position at all times. Thye may not have the big names, but the Panthers have enough of a team game for me to hop on board, and I’ll certainly take them at home by a point.

Georgetown Hoyas @ Pittsburgh Panthers (-1)