Saturday Morning College Basketball Picks: Free CBB Predictions

Duke Blue Devils @ Georgetown Hoyas (+2) (1:00pm ET, 1-30): Duke is 1-3 away from Cameron Indoor while the Georgetown Hoyas are 9-1 at home, and that one loss came prior to Christmas, before the Hoyas really found themselves. Since then, the Hoyas barely lost to Villanova, beat UConn and PIttsburgh, and struggled late and lost to Syracuse. But the Hoyas have talented bigs, a scoring wing, and a point guard that creates and scores as well. The Blue Devils have lots of bodies, but until Kyle Singler starts playing elite basketball, I’m not sure the Devils should be a favorite to beat really good teams, especially out of the ACC. I’ll take the Hoyas as 2 point underdogs at home.

Vanderbilt Commodores (+9) @ Kentucky Wildcats (4:00pm ET, 1-30): Kentucky is favored by nine points against a good Vanderbilt team (I randomly called them the Vandals in my Just Picks newsletter, whoops), and still the masses like the Wildcats to get the win and the cover. I don’t know. I’m buying Vandy and this is why: the Wildcats aren’t going to just turn it around after one loss, as many people are suggesting. Well, now they lost, and playing with lesser teams all season long won’t happen now that they learned their lesson… Please. Listen, Kentucky is really good, but this Vandy team has plowed through some solid opponents in SEC play. A win against Florida then wins at Alabama, at South Carolina, and at Tennessee – all in all they are winners of 10 straight and they play tough. They really score the basketball and I think they can put the ball in the hoop with Kentucky. I’ll take those 9 points and like it.

Kansas Jayhawks (-3.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats (7:00pm ET, 1-30): The Wildcats have been dang good at home, with only one loss this season – and most of their down games, and losses, come to teams out of the Top 25 – they play up against solid schools. But I don’t think they’ve played a Kansas – even thought Texas was ranked #1 when State ousted them, I still think Kansas was and is the best team in the country. I think the Jayhawks get the best of the Cats in this Kansas showdown. They are 6-1 in away or neutral games – that’s knowing how to do work away from home.

Red Red Ryans 2010 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1

Red Red Ryan’s 2010 NFL Mock Draft

This is my first mock draft in my short history as a sports writer. I’ve read all that I can read about where some of the key free agents might be going, who is leaving, who might be traded, and who is unhappy with the players they have. I have studied up on the players and their expected combine numbers, their potential as NFL stars as well as their college situations. I think I have a pretty solid grasp on the first round of the NFL Draft – so here it goes.

1. St. Louis Rams: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: I don’t know how the Lions pass up on the biggest sure thing of the draft. Rarely can you get a difference maker at a key position on the line that is the popular choice – don’t waste this St. Louis!
2. Detroit Lions: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: I know this is the same start to my mock as Lucky Lester’s mock, and everyone else’s mock too, but it just makes too much sense. I’ve liked McCoy since I thought he should come out last season, and his domination this year makes me like him even more. The Lions need help up front.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joe Haden, CB, Florida: I know Berry is supposed to be the pick, but I don’t see value in a safety here, and I think, after much deliberation, the Bucs will feel the same way. The best corner in the draft is Joe Haden, and it’s not close. With Revis dominating all season long, I think a true shut down corner has some added value, and that value will sway the Bucs.
4. Washington Redskins: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: Many would like to see the Redskins go quarterback here, but I don’t think there’s a talented arm in the Shanny mold in this draft, and I think that leaves him grabbing the best offensive tackle with upside to fit his blocking scheme. Anthony Davis is that guy. He may not be the biggest or baddest lineman out there, but his combination of agility and upside has to be something Shanny likes. I think they’ll try to trade down with a team enamored by a QB, and I think they’ll be able to and still get Davis.
5. Kansas City Chiefs: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: This guy is the biggest and baddest available, and the Chiefs could use him. It’s hard to get the most out of Matt Cassel and his average arm when he’s never getting time to throw. Okung is also a mauler than can help that new and improved Chiefs run-game.
6. Seattle Seahawks: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee: Taylor Mays is a USC, Pete Carol guy, but what Pete and the Seahawks get here is probably the 2nd or 3rd best player in the draft. Berry would definitely help sure up that leaky Hawks secondary, and the Pee-Hawks will be really lucky to get this game breaker.
7. Cleveland Browns: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: Best quarterback in the draft, just like he would have been last season. His shoulder injuries are a little scary, but I think he’s worth the chance. Brady Quinn isn’t the answer. Holmgren has been solid with QBs, and I think Bradford is special.
8. Oakland Raiders: Rolando McLain, OLB, Alabama: Al Davis is a nut job, but he has to see special when it dominates on the biggest stage. McLain is a beast, he brings the ruckus and he’ll be a good piece of an improving Raider defense.
9. Buffalo Bills: Derek Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: The Buffalo Bills need lots of things, but an every down end that can rush the passer and stop the run is a huge plus for that team, a team that will rely on their young and talented defense. Morgan has all the tools to be great, and he’s a good value here.
10. *Jacksonville Jaguars: Earl Thomas, S, Texas: There’s Dunlap, there’s Tebow (if they’re really that in need of revenue), and there’s a bunch of other good players than can help – but Thomas is an every down difference maker on defense, and that’s as safe a bet as the draft has. I think they take him.
11. *Denver Broncos: Carolos Dunlap, DE, Florida: Dunlap is a freak of nature, and if Josh McDaniels thinks he can get the most out of the very talented and ginormous defensive end, he’ll get picked up here. Jason Pierre-Paul could also go here. If McDaniels is really going to get a game changer, he’ll get Dez Bryant, but I think he waits on receiver help.
12. Miami Dolphins: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: Dez Bryant is a freak. I think he reacts to the ball as well as anyone, and he made a very mediocre college quarterback look very good the last two seasons. His run in with the NCAA will scare nobody. The Dolphins need WR help something fierce.
13. San Francisco 49ers: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland: I don’t see much else in terms of value for the Niners here. They could use a couple upgrades in the secondary I guess, so a guy like Taylor Mays could help, but they need more power up front, and Campbell has the athleticism to be a great one up front.
14. Seattle Seahawks: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa: If the Hawks don’t get Eric Berry with their 6th pick, I think Mays could go here. Carol knows how great Mays can be, and he knows that a lot of those problems this season were do to over extending himself and trying to make every play for a struggling team. But since they have Berry, Mays is not an option here. Offensive tackle is, and the Hawks need help there. People who think the Hawks need Spiller here are flat crazy, as Carol will soon see that Justin Forsett will do just fine in that role, and a 1st round draft pick need not be wasted on a small running back. The Hawks could use some help on the defensive line too, but there’s lots of help there. I think Bryan Bulaga has enough OT upside for Seattle to grab him here.
15. New York Giants: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: Kevin Boss is solid, but he’s not Gresham. The Oklahoma pass catching end is special, and thus might be worthy of a middle of the pack 1st round pick. He was unstoppable during his last healthy season, and Eli could use a game breaker in the passing game.
16. *San Francisco 49ers: Taylor Mays, S, USC: All the talent in the world, plenty of speed, brings it all every game – a game breaker – Mike Singletary’s type of player.
17. *Tennessee Titans: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee: The Vols were very good defensively, and a lot of that credit has to be given to Williams and the way he dominated the line up front. He’s so strong and really uses good leverage. The Titans need defensive line help.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: The Steelers really need help on the offensive line, and while Williams isn’t a guarantee to be great, he certainly proved he can play at a high level on the right side. Big Ben needs to stop holding the ball or get help up front, or both. Williams helps right now.
19. *Houston Texans: Brian Price, DT, UCLA: The Texans keep building on defense, and it makes sense, because offensively they are good enough to win football games. I think Price will be a very good defensive tackle, and any other year he’s likely a Top 10 guy, but there’s so many D-linemen this year, he slips. Lucky Texans.
20. *Atlanta Falcons: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida: I must have missed something letting this guy slip this far – but that always happens a couple times, and the Falcons, while not in a great need for a DE, have to take the very talented Paul at 20.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida: Some think Aaron is the best of the TEs in a strong draft for pass catching big men. The Bengals definitely need some help in the passing game, another reliable threat for Palmer, and what better than a sure thing TE with great hands and mis-match type speed?
22. New England Patriots: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: I like what Lucky is thinking with this pick. Bill Belichick has to know a weapon when he sees one, and the Pats offense needs more weapons. Spiller scores a touchdown every game, that needs to be recognized. I think Sergio Kindle could go here as well.
23. Green Bay Packers: Charles Brown, OT, USC: I’m doing this for lack of a better plan. I think Kindle could go here too, but offensive line is a big need and Brown is the next best OT. The Pack won’t want to leave the draft without some help up front, and it will be slim pickings later. Maybe the Pack would take a chance on the very talented Jahvid Best? I just don’t think a back-up RB has that much value here.
24. Philadelphia Eagles: Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State: This is a great fit for the Eagles, a sure tackler that can get sideline to sideline. They were hurting at LB so much that they brought Trotter back in the fold. Seriously – as much as I did that guy, come on. I also think Everson Griffen has a chance to go here.
25. Baltimore Ravens: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame: The Ravens could go for the ideal WR body, speed and height, or they could go for the guy that is going to get it done, a guy that dominated all season long at ND. I think they go with option two after watching Derrick Mason be so consistent over the years.
26. Arizona Cardinals: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas: The Cardinals would be oh-so-lucky to get Kindle here, especially after the retirement of Bertrand Berry. Kindle is not a physicall imposing player, but what a difference maker and unbelievably physical for his size. A steal at 26.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida: Keith Brooking is 34 and Spikes is one of the best defensive players in college football. I’m not saying he can easily replace what Brooking did for the Cowboys this season, but he can learn from him, and he can help right away everywhere else.
28. San Diego Chargers: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: Could the Chargers reach for the mammoth nose tackle Cody, knowing they need to clog up the middle on defense? Maybe. Could they go RB, to replace LT’s production as a more powerful back to team with Sproles? Maybe, but I think this is too high to go RB for them. Mike Iupati is a beast of a guard, and this run-game needs help. I think he starts right away for an O-line that needs some upgrades.
29. New York Jets: Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU: The Jets aren’t in dire need of offensive play-makers like everyone insists – come on. They have a stellar offensive line. They have a great defense – so I think they get to pick the best player available. If they think Hughes can fit somewhere in that 3-4, I think he works. He might not be the biggest or strongest, but the guy has gotten it done with great consistency, and I think Rex can appreciate a great football player.
30. Minnesota Vikings: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: The kid is a good player and the Vikings could always use help in the secondary, he’ll help right now. For a team that was so good all season on both sides of the ball, I think the Vikings could get youth at any position and feel good about it. That being said, I still think it’s Robinson.
31. Indianapolis Colts: Vladimir Ducasse: The Colts won’t go receiver, they don’t need RB help, and they are pretty much solid everywhere. They could always use warm bodies on defense where the team seems to sift through injuries, and a guy like Brandon Spikes or even Brandon Graham could go here. But I like this kid’s upside, and from what I read he has some great intangibles. The Colts are always looking to grab great upside.
32. New Orleans Saints: Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State: This guy and Sedrick Ellis will clog up the middle, and bring a consistent inside pass rush for a long, long time. The Saints get a great player if Odrick falls to them.

That’s right, just one quarterback. My honest opinion is that Bradford is the only guy worth dipping a number one pick one, and none of the teams late in the draft should be loosing a 1st rounder to get a quarterback. If a trade down happens, sure, I can see that – but predicting a trade right now is straight ludicrous.

Wisconsin Badgers VS Purdue Boilermakers: NCAA Basketball Thursday Night

NCAA Basketball Thursday Night Wisconsin Badgers VS Purdue Boilermakers Pick: Listen, Purdue is solid, but they aren’t 8.5 points better than a Wisconsin Badger team that plays tough defense and generally plays in close games kind of solid. I know Purdue is ranked 12th in the nation, but some kinks in the armor have presented themselves. They’ve recently won two straight games, but they’ve covered just 1 of their last 5 contests and they had lost three straight earlier in the month, getting ousted by Wisconsin (by 7), Ohio State (by 4), and Northwestern (by 8). Those are the Boilermakers only three losses of the season, but that 14-0 start doesn’t quite look as good when you see they’ve lost 3 of their last 5. Purdue is actually just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.

Wisconsin is 2-3 straight up on the road this season, and it’s not like they’ve been amazing lately either. They needed overtime to beat Penn State at home, and their win over Michigan was too close as well. Wisconsin plays tough though, the rebound the basketball and make opponents earn their buckets. In college basketball, a close game can be won by 8-10 points and a blowout can turn into 8-10 in a hurry as well. You just never know. But the likelihood of this game being double digits is pretty low, so Wisconsin and the points looks good.

40% of the betting public likes Wisconsin to cover. The Badgers are 10-8 ATS this season. Purdue, 8-10-1 ATS. The Badgers are one game up in the win-column on the Boilermakers in the Big 10 – Wisconsin is 6-2 while the Boilermakers are 4-3.

Wisconsin Badgers (+8.5) @ Purdue Boilermakers:

Wednesday Night NCAA Basketball: Big East and SEC Free Picks

As some big Wednesday night games show themselves, I see myself going for the underdog, at least on my betting card. It’s conference time folks, and with a couple good teams battling on the road, I see no reason to run away from those free points…

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+11) @ Villanova Wildcats: The Fighting Irish are trying to ride Luke Harengody to the Big Dance, but so far the Irish haven’t looked good against top competition. Luckily for them, in the Big East, there’s lots of opportunity to play high ranked teams and improve your tourney resume. The Irish are 4-3 in conference while ‘Nova has started Big East play with 7 straight wins and currently is the only undefeated Big East team in league play. Villanova is 18-1 on the season, 8-0 at home, and they doing it big, going 14-4 ATS so far this season. 53% of the public likes Notre Dame to cover the 11. And I agree, while I don’t expect them to win, I do expect the Irish to keep it close. Most good teams have stayed right with the Wildcats, Georgetown losing by 5, Louisville playing close throughout before losing by 8, Marquette losing twice by a basket – I mean, sure, Villanova is good, but Notre Dame can fill it up, and keeping it to single digits is very likely.

Vanderbilt Vandals (+5.5) @ Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee has done a good job without a handful of troubled players and Wayne Chism might be back in the line-up on Wednesday, but I still see a tough task in taking out Vanderbilt for the powerful Vols. The Vols are coming off a loss to Georgia, and I felt that if they finally did have a bad loss (which a 15 point loss to Georgia is) then the wheels might come off a bit, or they might realize that they aren’t as armored as they thought. Vanderbilt plays tough, definitely, and they are at the top of the SEC East at 4-0 in league play. They are 10-6 ATS this season, and I think they have a good chance to pull the upset in Tennessee.

2010 NFL Mock Draft – Lucky Lesters Mock Draft

I’ve always thought that a pre-end of season mock draft is crazy. There’s so much time to go, shoot, we don’t even know which underclassmen are for sure and which ones are just flirting with the big show. But we have ideas, thoughts, predictions, and all that junk, and since this is just fiction and fortune telling at it’s best, I might as well get in on all the fun. Here’s my own mock draft, which player I would pick if I was the team on the clock. I’ll tell you one thing, it will take me a hell of a lot less time to make my draft happen then it will during the actual draft. As is, right now, pre-free agency signings and trades and combine and everything – this is what I’ve got…. This is my only Mock Draft that is solely based on the team’s needs and my opinion of where the team should go. After this, it’s all fortune telling! (* indicates that the exact draft order for these positions is still up to a coin flip)

Lucky Lester’s 2010 NFL Mock Draft

1. St. Louis Rams: Ndamukong Suh:The biggest baddest sure thing star in the draft. I know some find it wrong to take a DT #1 overall, and that’s all fine and dandy, but this is the DT you take #1 overall because he would fit a huge need, help a bad defense, and is the best player in college football. The big cat almost won the Heisman as a freaking defensive tackle. He’s a no-brainer for me.
2. Detroit Lions:Gerald McCoy: This beast of a tackle would have been a Top 10 pick last season, but he stayed in school – unlike some other Oklahoma Sooners, this season only upped his stock, as McCoy gained strength and speed and proved even more dominating than before. He has the ability to be a force against both the run and pass. This would help the entire Lions defense.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:Eric Berry: The Buccos actually have a pretty solid offensive line, a nice youngster at QB that is way ahead of where most expected him to be, and a few running backs that have all had success in the league. I think Dez White is going to be special, and they could use help at receiver, but I would never take a WR in the Top 5 – that’s too much money going to that position.
   
   Defensively, they could stand to gain some youth and explosiveness. I would go D here.They don’t really have a big need at safety, but Eric Berry is one heck of a game-breaker in the secondary – this is a little high for safety, not a spot you want to over pay. So I’m a bit hesitant. They could definitely use some help in the middle of that defensive line, and you can bet they’ll be hoping one of the top D-tackles falls to them at the 3rd spot. In my draft, I was smart, and I drafted those two bigs 1 and 2, so that leaves me in a bit of a quandary here.
   
   I think Joe Haden had a great chance to go here, because corner is a tougher place to find starter-quality players than safety, but my belief in Berry as an elite pro has me taking the Tennessee safety here.
4. Washington Redskins:Sam Bradford: The Redskins need offensive linemen bad, but it’s hard for me to believe that the best offensive line prospect, Russell Okung, will be drafted by Mike Shanahan. Shanny, or Splinter, as I call him, has always had a thing for linemen with elite footwork and quickness.
   
   Okung is one hell of a player, but he’s not an elite athlete at the position. He’ll fit in most offenses, but at #4, it’s hard for me to see Shanny grabbing a guy that doesn’t fit the bill. What I do think Splinter has been good at is grabbing QBs. He’s a pretty good judge of talent there, though I’m not sure my favorite, Sam Bradford, has the arm strength master Splinter wants in a signal caller. Oh the tough decisions.
   
   If I were the Redskins, I would trade down. I’m sure there will be a team wanting to get here to grab their favorite signal caller, and the Skins need help in a few places. Still, no trades for me, I’m not that good of a mock drafter, so I’ll take Sam Bradford. I think he is by far the best QB in the class, and though he doesn’t have John Elway or Jay Cutler arm strength, I think his future is bright.
5. Kansas City Chiefs:Russell Okung: The Chiefs and coach Todd Haley could try to bolster their offense, which was 23rd in points scored and 25th in total yards in his first season as the head man. KC has compiled one heck of a coaching staff this off-season, hiring a couple big name former ex-Patriots’ staff members in Romeo Crennel (DC) and Charlie Weis (OC). Last year, the Chiefs went heavy defense, using thier first 3 picks on two defensive linemen and a corner. It didn’t help much as they were 29th in points give up and 30th in yards allowed. Yikes.
   
   Considering their rushing resurgence over the final weeks of the season, and how that might be the only thing they have going for them, I’m sticking with my offense and grabbing Russell Okung. He’s a big bad man, and a guy that would help the Chiefs keep Matt Cassel off his ace and continue that rushing attack. He’s a mauler.
6. Seattle Seahawks: Anthony Davis: The Rutgers offensive tackle has the tools to be an elite left tackle in the NFL. Face it, the Hawks have needed help along the offensive line for a long time. They could go defense here, sure, but the D-line is deep in this draft, and amongst the top O-line prospects, I think Davis has the best feet and thus the best upside. If I were the Hawks, I would love to see Sam Bradford, Eric Berry, or one of the D-Tackles here, but I’ll certainly settle for upgrading a position that is almost always the determining factor between playoff teams and those watching after Week 17 – offensive line success is a must! And in that spot, I’m looking for upside, not brute force.
7. Cleveland Browns: Dez Bryant: I know this is higher than everybody else has the WR going, but he’s an elite pro prospect at the position. His “situation” this year is hardly a knock on his draft stock, and he was dominating during the season before his suspension. I think his size and speed as well as his ability to react to the ball make him an awesome prospect, one of the best since Calvin Johnson. Not that it matters, because this is MY DRAFT, but those that don’t think Holmgren would waste a pick on a WR here, give me a break, he traded a 1st rounder for Deion Branch, drafted Koren Robinson, and sees a need for an elite play-maker in a suspect passing game. Seems to fit.
8. Oakland Raiders: Trent Williams: This is a tough, “What would I do” pick – I mean, if I were Al Davis, I would take out my batteries and fade away into oblivion, but that’s hardly part of “draft strategy” or is it? As is, I’m not taking into account the crazies that run these teams, so I’m going for what I’d go with. Derrick Morgan is a possibility, but he didn’t always impress me, and G-Tech defensive ends (seems like there’s always one great pass rusher on that team) scare me. So I’m waiting to draft him.
   
   I think Trent Williams intrigues me here. I’m not enamored with either of the other two top quarterbacks, and while JaMarcus Russell has about as bright of a future as Al Davis himself, you can’t go wrong with Trent Williams. He’s a big strong tackle that can help immediately, and I promise he’ll make ten times the impact of a guy like, say, Darius Heyward-Bey….
9. Buffalo Bills: Bruce Campbell: The Bills need help everywhere, no doubt, and you can bet their new staff will be turning every stone to acquire more draft picks or get the one guy here that can really help them move forward. I really like Joe Hadden, still the best player on my board, and has been for a while, but this team has some great young corners, especially last year’s 2nd round pick, Jairus Byrd – the guy nabbed 9 interceptions in his rookie season. Nasty. This team actually isn’t bad defensively. Numbers will tell you they stink, and they could definitely sure up that run-defense, but having an offense that scores no points and gets no yards puts a defense in bad spots. I think the Bills could take a chance on Jimmy Claussen here.
   
   But I wouldn’t go that direction. The Bills need to run the ball, and especially with the run-game guru signed up as head coach, there are some good fits in this draft. I think Bruce Campbell’s quickness and footwork make him a great upside pick, and while this may be a little early, I’m looking for good, solid, franchise players that will help these teams. Bruce fits the bill.
10. *Jacksonville Jaguars: Joe Haden: Perfect fit, great player, great value, a big need for a low-level pass defense that needs help in the secondary. There’s not much to say about this except the Jaguars will be really damn lucky if Haden falls to them.
11. *Denver Broncos: Rolando McClain: There’s not much I have to say besides that this kid is one of the best football players I watched on the college level this season. I’m not ready to say this is one of the biggest needs the Broncos have, or that I can justify this pick over a defensive end and physical specimen like Carlos Dunlap, but McClain is a beast and would certainly give this team a lot of options at line-backer. I think he makes the entire defense more physical and athletic.
12. Miami Dolphins: Jason Pierre-Paul: In the mold of a Jason Taylor more than a Joey Porter, this physical freak of nature could become exactly what a 3-4 defense wants at the pass rushing end. He has the physical tools to dominate and has the motor to make it happen. I think this is a great upside pick for a defense looking for big plays.
13. San Francisco 49ers: Earl Thomas: I would consider Colt McCoy if I didn’t love Nate Davis’s game. That’s right, the kid that didn’t play for the 49ers this year has a bright future, and sooner than later that will be realized. As for this next season, they 49ers probably find a way to stick with Alex Smith, they owe themselves that much. And I think they should, they have bigger needs now than quarterback.
    
    C.J. Spiller is intriguing if they are going to go against Mike Singletary’s initial hopes and run the spread, the guy could be a huge game breaker for them, but come on, Frank Gore is an all around beast, so Spiller is out. Derrick Morgan is still there, but I’m not sure he translates to a 3-4 defensive end or an outside linebacker, either way, the 49ers are pretty stout up front on D and while his value is high, I think the Niners are closer to being good than needing to build.
    
    I think Mike, and myself as well (if I was running the Niners) would like to be stronger up front, but I’m not sure the value fits that position here. In the end I go with Earl Thomas. The 49ers are great against teh run, but Earl could really help them cover some ground in the secondary. He clogged passing lanes for a great Texas defense and I think he’ll do it at the next level as well.
14. Seattle Seahawks: Derrick Morgan: I would have loved Earl Thomas here, for the Hawks, because they need help in that secondary bad. Taylor Mays could be the guy, and I’m this close to pulling that trigger, but the Pete Carol/USC roots thing is just too good to be true, even for a mock draft. But hey, Derrick Morgan with the 14th pick is an absolute steal, and so is Carlos Dunlap, both options that are, amazingly enough, still sitting around waiting to hear their names called here.
    
    I think quarterback can wait, and since the Hawks already grabbed an offensive lineman earlier in this round, help on the defensive line seems like a good move. I like Derrick Morgan’s motor, and even as a GT D-end, his strength against the pass and run seems too good to pass up in the middle of Round 1. I don’t see Carrol, a defensive guru, moving to a 3-4, something he didn’t run at USC – and he’s already loaded at linebacker, so if he did that, this pick wouldn’t make sense.
15. New York Giants: Carlos Dunlap: The Giants could use some push on defense. I think Dunlap’s size and physical upside makes him a great selection for a Giants team that definitely lost a bit of their defensive punch as the season went forward. This team had a lot of injuries, and I’m not sure they have terrible need anywhere, which makes Dunlap, and his upside, an even better selection.
16. *San Francisco 49ers: Brian Bulaga: Jimmy Claussen is still on the board here, but I would still do my best to steer clear. I like Brian Bulaga… This big offensive tackle has the feet I want in an offensive lineman, and he hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Yes, I like OL guys that don’t rely too heavily on overpowering college defensive linemen throughout their NCAA careers – because in the NFL, that won’t always be an option. Bulaga has the footwork to be special, and should help an struggling run-game from the get go. The Niners definitely make the most of their two mid-round picks.
17. *Tennessee Titans: Brian Price: Offensively, I actually think the Titans are stout. They could reach for a special tight end, and I think this draft has plenty to choose from, but I personally don’t believe in 1st round tight ends. Especially because Vince has a nice relationship with Bo Scaife, and they’ve shown that on the field. The team definitely needs pass rush help, as the time opposing quarterbacks got when they dropped back definitely effected the defense and their 31st ranking against the pass. They could get that at end, but the best defensive lineman on the board is Brian Price. Price might not be a freak of nature, isn’t 6′8″ and 320 pounds with a 50 inch vertical or anything, but the guy clogs holes, disrupts quarterbacks, and causes ruckus on the football field. The Titans need that.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Everson Griffen: Obviously offensive line is something I rate high, and the Steelers need help there badly, but my appreciation and respect for what good offensive linemen mean has the top 5 gone by pick 16, two picks before the Steelers draft. This team needs pass-blockers bad, and there’s a good chance one of the top 5 slip. If Bulaga or Campbell or Davis fell this far, I’d have them in black and gold in a hurry. As is, there’s no value at OL here, so I have to go another route.
    
    Everson Griffen is an elite prospect that is probably coming out a little too early – but he could be molded into a 3-4 end. This is a team that never has too many concerns about drafting defensive prospects, and some help on the line. Brett Keisel will be in his 9th season, and while he’s still a force, Griffen would be a nice selection if the Steelers believe he can become that rush end in their base defense.
19. *Houston Texans: Patrick Robinson: The Texans need help in the secondary, some way, some how. They’ve invested a lot into the defensive line, and they have some great upside there. The kids are growing up and now they need some lock-down players on the outside. I don’t know if Patrick Robinson is a Top 20 corner, but he’s close, and he definitely will help make plays for the Texans on the outside. Houston could go for help at linebacker, or even grab a guy like Taylor Mays, but I think Robinson helps them in a place of need, and he’s a lot better than option 3 at CB – value both for the team and in the draft.
20. *Atlanta Falcons: Taylor Mays:The kid is an absolute specimen. His size and speed are an uncanny pair, and he was one of the best defensive players in college football two seasons ago. This season, he got caught out of position a few times, and definitely was trying to do too much. But a kid, and his upside, doesn’t change that much in a year, and this guy is a top 10 pick in that department. He’s a playmaker, a helper against the run, a destroyer looking for big hits in the secondary. I think the Falcons could use all of that, and I think this is a steal here.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham: I said I don’t like 1st round TE’s and I wasn’t lying, but just like any drafter, I have my value price where I just can’t pass a guy up. Gresham is more of an elite wide receiver than a TE, similar to a guy like Witten, Gates, Tony Gonzalez, at least in terms of upside. The Bengals have never had a TE with that kind of ability, and without an elite WR right here for the Bengals to grab (for an offense that was definitely lacking explosiveness in the passing game) I think Gresham is a great pick.
22. New England Patriots: C.J. Spiller: I don’t see what’s taking Bill Belichick so long. The Patriots love to pass the ball, and they love to pass it short, why not have one of the most feared open space players in the draft come in and make the most out of Tom Brady’s ability to read defenses, and take advantage of mis-matches. Spiller is a mis-match to big play waiting to happen. I know he doesn’t fit the normal Patriot mold, but what does that mean anyway? Does it mean they haven’t drafted one in a while? I see Spiller as a double digit touchdown guy in the NFL – the Pats could use that at the RB position.
23. Green Bay Packers:Sergio Kindle: I just can’t see a team like Green Bay passing on a guy like Kindle. I think the Packers are in a great spot, they don’t need much, but Kindle is a great piece to a 3-4 defense because of his ability to just flat out make plays. I know the Packers have plenty of players at linebacker, but I’m not sure any of them is as good a pair as Kindle would be to Clay Matthews. Kindle’s explosive nature would be yet another piece for a fast forward Packers defense.
24. Philadelphia Eagles: Navorro Bowman: The Eagles could definitely use some sideline to sideline play-making ability from the linebacker spot, some youth, some speed, some all around great play. Bowman is a great linebacker, and he can definitely do what the Eagles need him to do. He’s not a great guy to fight off blocks, but if the Eagles can let him roam, he’ll make plays all over the field.
25. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon LaFell: I think LaFell is going to be one heck of a receiver. I think a receiver’s stats in college can often be thrown right out the window, especially if they are part of a really special passing attack or a really terrible passing attack. LaFell can mark down himself as a victim of the latter, but I still think he has #1 upside. The Ravens could get depth in a lot of places, or they could go for the gusto and see if one of the late 1st to 2nd round receivers fits like a glove. I think LaFell is a good choice.
26. Arizona Cardinals: Brandon Spikes: I don’t know what the Cardinals will need more. They have lots of holes, I know that. Dansby is a question mark, will he be back, will he be happy? Kurt Warner? Retiring? Anquan Boldin? Traded? Bertrand Berry retired, I know that, so the Cardinals could definitely use an end. I’m going for one hell of a football player to replace Carlos Dansby. I know Carlos does lots of things for the Cardinals, and I’m not sure that Spikes will get those all done right off the bat – but he’s a difference maker at the ILB position, and the Cardinals could use some more pop, especially if Dansby hits the road.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Ricky Sapp: I’m not sure what the Packers really need. They have a three-headed monster at running back, one highly paid under-performer at receiver but teamed with an underpaid pro-bowler makes it a pretty solid position. Then you have one of the best TEs in the league, a great young quarterback, and offensive line that is good (but needs youth) – then you have that defense that is really maturing in the secondary while staying as powerful as ever up front. Tough to find a hole.
    
    I think the Cowboys have room to grab the best player available, and the only problem is, I think that’s an OLB named Ricky Sapp. They are loaded at OLB, and I don’t know if there’d be room for Sapp to play, unless they Boys got rid of either Ware or Spencer, both of which are elite OLBs. Jahvid Best is another guy that is high on my list, as is Ryan Matthews, but it’s tough to see the Cowboys going RB. I’m not sure if any of the DL prospects would fit nicely in that 3-4 as a lineman. So without further ado, I’m just going to go on ahead and select Sapp – he’s the best player on my board and I don’t love any O-line guys right at this spot. I think Sapp is a steal, I don’t know how I didn’t pick him earlier.
28. San Diego Chargers: Jonathan Dwyer: Obviously LT isn’t likely to come back, and I think Dwyer is the best power back in the draft. He played an interesting FB type position at Georgia Tech, and he wasn’t as leaned on during his last season with the Jackets, but Dwyer is a beast and I think he has the power and quick burst to be a very good starting running back in the NFL. He’s a great match with a guy like Darren Sproles, the heavy deep fried dough to the sprinkles and frosting that make a doughnut. What can I say, I’m on pastry thoughts here.
29. New York Jets: Golden Tate: The Jets have some good players at receiver, and Edwards and Cotchery both have good size and speed – and I don’t know what Tate will “measure” out at, but I have to be honest, I don’t care. Golden Tate should get a weekly thank you letter from Charlie Weis that says, “I’d like to thank you for getting me a job as an offensive coordinator after I got fired. You are the reason I looked good when I did.” Tate might not have great size or speed or whatever you want to have for receivers – but he does do one thing, he goes and gets the ball and he makes magic happen. The kid was unstoppable and he made Jimmy Claussen look really good on some “up for grabs” balls. I think the Jets could really use a guy like him in their run first, big pass play offense.
30. Minnesota Vikings: Dan Williams: The original Williams’s aren’t going to be around forever, and Dan Williams is a heck of a defensive lineman and the name fits – but that’s just coincidence, I promise. He may not be a dead ringer for one of the Wild Things, but he’s a big bad man with an extremely strong lower body, and built in the mold to take up space and fight for position. The Vikings need back-ups for exactly that.
31. Indianapolis Colts: Bruce Carter: Bottom line, Bruce Carter is a machine. The Colts seem to plug new players in all the time, and this guy seems like he’ll fit the bill. Carter is a little undersized, but the Colts probably won’t mind, shoot, he’ll fit right in. This guy was a big reason why the UNC Tar Heels were a defensive force in the ACC – his speed and ability to move to the ball would make him an ideal guy in Indy’s defensive schemes.
32. New Orleans Saints: Brandon Graham: I think Graham might fit that Colts edge rusher ideal better – I mean he’s a little undersized, probably won’t measure out as an elite prospect, but just does everything he can to get to the quarterback and make tackles in the backfield. His production this season, on a team that wasn’t very good at winning football games, was just down right scary. I think Graham continues his production at the next level, and the Saints could use more motor and pass rushing prowess. Even if he’s not the ideal size, I see him as the best fit for the Saints.

College Basketball Saturday: Free NCAA Hoops Picks

I’m 1-1 headed into the weekend, and Saturday has a gaggle of good games ready to get your sports weekend going. There might not be a better Sunday in football, but don’t feel as if you’re cheating your love by getting your fix on Saturday with some college hoops. Here are my 3 match-ups where Top 25 teams go at it in some big conference showdowns while Ohio State battles an out of conference foe when they travel to West Virginia.

Ohio State Buckeyes (+6.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers (2:00pm ET, 1-23): Evan Turner is for real. I’m telling you, if you haven’t seen this guy play, it’s a must watch show. John Wall, the phenomenal point guard playing for the Kentucky Wildcats is one heck of a player, probably the #1 pro prospect in the land, but if I had to pick the best college basketball player in the game, my vote would go to Turner. The Ohio State Mr. Everything does it all for the Buckeyes. Last time out, against Northwestern, the kid went for 20 points, 13 rebounds, and 8 assists. He also grabbed two steals and blocked a shot. Better yet, Ohio State has lost just 2 games with Turner in the line-up, and one . The kid averages 18.6 points per game, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. He’s getting back to form after his back injury, and he could be the difference in this one.

Texas Longhorns (-2.5) @ Connecticut Huskies (4:00pm ET, 1-23): The Longhorns might have just one loss on the season, but they’ve lost their last 5 games against the spread, and really haven’t looked all that impressive away from home. But this UConn team has struggled, and while I’d love to make that underdog Huskies pick and look brilliant in the process, I see UConn playing well after their first loss of the season. Aside from Jerome Dyson and Kemba Walker, the Huskies have been very inconsistent. Texas shot poorly against K-State, I don’t think that happens again.

Duke Blue Devils (-0.5) @ Clemson Tigers (9:00pm ET, 1-23): Duke has losses to Georgia Tech and NC State over the last 4 games, but they beat Clemson earlier this month in Durham. In fact, the Tigers were down right embarrassed in a 21 point piecing at the hands of the Blue Devils. The Tigers beat North Carolina and the same NC State team that upset the Devils. In their other like-opponent, Boston College, the Devils won by 20 while the Tigers won by 16. Hmmm. I still think Duke is the better team, and Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer will shoot better than a combined 11 for 32 like they did in a loss to the Wolf Pack earlier this week. The Devils have some talented guards that don’t turn the ball over too often, that should work well against the Tigers. I’ll take the Devils while hoping every second of the game that I’m wrong. Should be one hell of a weekend!

New York Jets VS Indianapolis Colts AFC Championship Pick & Preview

I think the dream stops here for the Jets, but I’m still taking the points. Most quarterbacks can’t do much against the Jets, sure, but Peyton Manning can put up enough yardage to get his offense in scoring position. There is no quarterback more prepared and accurate and strategic as Peyton, and something tells me he won’t steer clear of Revis like everybody else. Joseph Addai will be a huge part of that game plan, I’ll be on that, and I see the Colts having a pretty good rushing day against a Jets defense that, while solid against the run, isn’t impenetrable.

But like I said, I’m still taking the Jets. Why? Well, to start with, I get 9 points at +100 and the bottom line is you don’t give a good team more than a touchdown and expect win. It happens, but you can’t bet on that. Especially when they have a good defense (and the Jets are ranked numero uno) and a solid rushing attack (and the Jets are ranked numero uno). Now, the Colts have been very good against the run, and if anyone can torment that Jets defense, it’s Peyton – but I see a pretty even game with Indy finding more field goal opportunities, and a win at home.

But 9 points, yes, I think that’s way too much. The Jets are a good road team, now 7-3 away from New York this season. They’ve currently won 5 straight games one the road, and it wouldn’t stun me if they managed to oust the Colts – because, if anything, it’s Karma. Remember the Cardinals 2 road wins to get to the Super Bowl? How about the Steelers when they went on the road in three straight to get to the big show? Can the Jets do it? They aren’t as balanced as those teams, but it’s possible. What’s even more possible is a cover, heck, it’s down right probable. The Jets lost 7 games this season, two of them were by more than 5 points. Two. Yes sir, they are a good bet.

New York Jets (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota Vikings VS New Orleans Saints NFC Championship Pick & Preview

So, I’m taking the Saints at -3.5 despite listing -2 as the line in my Just Picks Newsletter. I didn’t read the number right in the book where I got the line from, and it was indeed -2, but the payout was -150 or something like that. Currently you can get the Saints -1.5 at -172 at 5 Dimes, but I’ve never picked low payout lines like that, and -3.5 is a a normal payout at most books right now, so I’ll list that.

The Saints played their best football against their best opponents all season long. The Saints didn’t only win, but dominated the Eagles, Jets, Giants, and Eagles. They also beat a good Atlanta team twice, keeping the Falcons out of the playoffs. Oh, and while they did tumble a little bit down the final stretch of the regular season, (3 straight losses, 2 when they were playing their starters) I give them the benefit of the doubt after their dismantling of an Arizona team playing good football.

Minnesota has had a hell of a year, but I think the Saints are actually better on both sides of the ball. The secondary of the Saints has repeatedly made big plays that change the course of games, while Minnesota’s secondary relies heavily on that pass rush. New Orleans has one hell of an offensive line, and Drew Brees moves in the pocket and can release the ball at any moment of his escape – I think that neutralizes the Vikings elite pass rush a little bit, and I see that being the difference in the game. I’d love to see Brett get another crack at a Super Bowl, but unfortunately I don’t see it going that way.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

2009 NFL Fantasy Football Predictions: Season Review

Well, the predictions I got correct, I marked in red ink in my review statement below. The ones I got wrong gave me the blues, so I used blue. Neat, huh? As you’ll realize, I sure end up using a lot of blue ink. I had some good calls, and a couple of my misses were oh so close, but in the end, it was a tough fantasy season for the self-proclaimed fantasy master. Here’s the review…

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

Well, I must say, I came up a hair short on yardage. MJD was a beast, no doubt about it, but I said 1800+ yards and the heart of the Jaguars came up with 1765 and 16 touchdowns. He did end up as the #2 running back in fantasy football, just ahead of Adrian Peterson. Maybe if Jack Del Rio wasn’t such a dink and gave the guy 9 touches in each of the team’s games against Tennessee, maybe then he’d gotten to 1800 – I was wrong, but in a good way.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

Well I doubt he would have gotten to 6 touchdowns, as the Hawks only scored 5 as a team. No, but seriously, Nate would have easily gotten to 70 and 900 if he didn’t bust his knee up in Week 14’s loss to the Texans, ending his season early with 63 catches for 812 yards and 3 scores. His first 5 weeks were solid, after that, pretty damn good considering he was on the Seahawks, but just not good enough for red ink.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

Donnie came out and hurt himself right off the bat. And I’m not sure if he was even close to full speed until Week 5. Then he got caught in the Rams terrible passing attack. Another mid-season injury slowed him a bit, and while the sophomore did catch 5 touchdowns, his 47 grabs for 589 yards were both lower than last seasons totals.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

Every guy played more than 12 games. Brett and Drew played them all, and McNabb only missed 2 games. Big Ben missed 1. What can you say, they fought off age and injury history and questionable line work. Well, Brett and Drew had great offensive lines. Anyway, wrong again.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

Not  possible, as Culpepper didn’t get the job in camp, but go down to option 5b…

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

Stafford got the job out of camp, and he threw for 13 touchdowns, so I win. Sure, I needed a little injury help, but those injuries also kept his interceptions down as Matt threw 20 picks in 10 games, pretty impressive. He did throw nearly half of his TDs in one crazy game against the Browns, 5 to be precise, but he didn’t quite get to 15…

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

So close, but the text color is still blue. Steven Jackson finished 2nd in rushing yards with 1416 yards on the ground despite missing a couple games. Ryan Grant finished 7th. Frank Gore had 1110 yards despite missing 3 complete games, and 3.5 quarters of another. LT was a bust, but he did put up double digit touchdowns once again. It was close, but didn’t get to red.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

True. How else do you explain Larry Johnson tweeting some crap about how his dad would be a better coach than his actual head coach, then getting fired because of it, then getting hired by a playoff team, then rushing for 100 yards only to not really be used at all when it matters? And then the Brett Favre story… Speaks for itself. And what about Mark Sanchez and his decision to go pro working out while he picks at his former coach for making the same decision a year later? You need more, or are you just going to go ahead and believe me? Alright, linemen are almost unknown to most NFL fans, yet Michael Oher (you know him now) has a movie made about his life and it becomes one of the holiday season’s most loved films. Show business folks, there’s something just like it!

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

83 catches, nope. A very consistent and productive year for the old man, and while he finished lower on the final TE rankings than many predicted, he had a very solid season and is still a top notch pass catcher.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

Reggie ended up with 150 fantasy points while Pierre went for 183. So I was wrong. Neither guy was great. Reggie looked good against the Cardinals, but he’s always shown something big in playoff games. The guy is certainly dynamic. But I was wrong again.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

Hahaha. Wrong. Boy Matt sucked this season, probably a lot to do with his offensive line and their garbage offensive scheme, definitely wrong on this one.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

This should prove that the pre-season isn’t a place to judge offensive stars. Wrong again, Trent didn’t even make it out of the season as a starter.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

Eddie didn’t improve on anything. Josh McDaniels lied to me, and I bought in completely, getting Royal in almost every single league I participated in. As you can guess, I didn’t dominate many leagues this season.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

DeAngelo spent much of the season banged up, and didn’t get close to 1500 yards. Apparently it’s tough to go 1500+ back to back, as the wear and tear gets you down. Williams missed 3 full games as well as pieces of others and the cat managed just 1117 yards on the ground this season.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

Well, yet another knee injury put Ronnie in the hospital once again, and the guy managed to miss 7 more games. He was over half way toward 1400 yards after 9 games, just under 750 with 8 touchdowns, so I was on to something – but injuries are part of the game, and Ronnie definitely didn’t get to my projections.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

No. I’m not even going to go into it. Holt was not even the best WR on his team. In fact, Mike Thomas finished with more fantasy point, and the rookie started as the #4 receiver. TO finished 27th amongst WRs, and Portis was a gong show. There it is, wrong on all accounts. Age is a factor, but then again, it might be getting stuck in a terrible offense that got these old guys down.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

Only Knowshon Moreno, with 947 yards rushing, finished in the top 20. Beanie Wells got some nice production late, but his season only got him 176 carries and it’s tough to get in the Top 20 with that. After Beanie, it was LeSean McCoy finishing 35th in rushing with 635 yards. I got this one on the dot, last year was just crazy.

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

The Hawks sucked, and while Jones had a couple good games, he managed just 2 touchdowns, and even though Mora insisted on giving him way more carries than the much more talented Justin Forsett, Jones didn’t get reach 700 yards this season, wrong again!

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

Yikes. It’s predictions like this that make it a tough year for fantasy Championships. I think I won just a single league, and it wasn’t because I drafted McFadden. Well, I did draft McFadden, but I dropped him for Ricky Williams and got to ride that out nicely.

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

Nope, and Brandon didn’t ever really look that good. Ahmad Bradshaw was easily the best looking back for the Giants, and I don’t know what it was, but Jacobs certainly struggled all season long. Another miss – tough prediction year for me, that’s for sure.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

The young dynamic back couldn’t stay on the field, missing big portions of games and getting rested for the playoffs (where he dominated the Eagles in Round 1). He finished with 116 carries for 685 rushing yards, but just 19 catches. If the Cowboys knew what was good for them, they would have made my prediction accurate. He ended up 40th amongst RBs, actually 3 spots lower than his average draft position amongst his position.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

Vincent was awesome over the first 9 weeks of the season, getting targeted early and often and making the most of his looks. He went over 4 times out of his first 8 games, caught touchdowns in 6 of his first 8 games, and managed 7 scores over the first half. Vincent caught just two more scores over the final 8 games as his targets went way down during weeks 10-13, but he ende up with 9 more catches, nearly 100 more yards, and 2 more touchdowns meaning he made me look smart. Few and far between, I know.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

He didn’t blow up the fantasy world, but Mark won 9 and got the Jets to the playoffs. He also won his first two playoff games, and while people continue to show his poor touchdown to interception ratio and even go as far as to compare him to JaMarcus Russell, I’d like you to remember that I think he’ll be great one day, and at least he made my first prediction true.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

Slaton missed his last 5 games, but that wouldn’t have mattered. After a few fumbles early, the Texans got this bright idea that they would just eliminate one of their most productive offensive players from the field. This didn’t work that well, and backs continued to fumble, but at least Steve Slaton owners had suicidal looks in their collective eye after Week 8.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

Got one right on the mark. Beanie finished 39th amongst running backs while the guy everybody wanted to forget put up pretty good statistics throughout, had nice consistency in the passing game, and ended up 17th amongst RBs, 20+ spots better than the guy drafted higher than him in every league.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

14th – so, nope. The Chargers started pretty slow, picked it up big time in the middle, then held on late, but were never a Top notch fantasy defense during the season. Wrong again.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

Weird, Boldin didn’t stay healthy all season, and despite playing through pain often, the dynamic WR was visibly hobbled throughout the season. White started slow, but picked it up late and passed Boldin. White finished 10th amongst WRs while Boldin was 19th.

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

Nope. Ward finished well behind his own teammate and ended up 50th amongst RBs, even lower than that low RB draft position.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

Well, Matt didn’t double Mark’s touchdowns – and Matt was terrible, but he did finish 40 points ahead of Sanchez in fantasy points. Matt’s 17 touchdowns didn’t double Mark’s 13 scores, but Matt was definitely the better value, though disappointing entirely.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

Clark #1 – Gates #3 – Witten #5 – Tony G #6 – well, it was close, but I pulled one off here. Vernon Davis and Brent Celek crashed the party though, becoming great value picks for those that took chances on them late, Davis was #2 and Celek #4.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

No, but I’m telling you, Gonzo would have had a great season if he played more than half a series on offense. Tough injury for me there too. Eddie Royal didn’t – but Vincent and DeSean blew well by Braylon this season. Two out of four doesn’t make a prediction come true.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

Looking Back: Josh Revisits his 2009 Preseason NFL Predictions

It was an interesting season to say the least.  More than any other sport the fortunes of NFL teams rise and fall on their ability to avoid injury or have players on their roster that can step up to fill a void.  This same volatility makes predicting statistical achievement particularly difficult.  That said, the 2009 season was not my best effort.  Of my 30 preseason predictions I hit less than 50%.  From the look of things I have an innate ability to predict TE production but stay away if I’m talking QBs or Defense.  In terms of RBs and WRs … flip a coin.  I will say this for myself, however … when I miss, I miss HUGE (see Parker, Willie and Johnson, Larry).  So if you started your season by following my advice, I would like to say I’m sorry … and you’re welcome … and I hope we can do it again next year.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

Not quite … Palmer finished as the #17 fantasy QB and compiled just 3,094 yards passing and 21 TDs … Ouch.  Tough to predict the Bengals newfound appreciation for the running game but Cedric Benson proved he is for real.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

A disappointing sophomore campaign for Smith, as he was falling short even before his season ended with a gruesome knee injury.  His final tally was 1,156 yards from scrimmage, 40 catches and just 5 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

Another predication derailed by injury, Cooley was playing well when his season was cut short.  That said, he would have needed a huge second half to leap above the production of proven studs Gonzo and Gates.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

Ugh, the Hawks were tough to root for this year but Nasty Nate was fixin’ to make me look good with this pick until his season ended with – you guessed it – an injury.  Burleson finished with 63 catches for 812 yards and 3 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

Wrong, wrong, and wrong … the guys I thought would stay healthy got hurt, the one I thought would get hurt stayed healthy (mostly).  Another solid year from Kurt Warner kept Leinart off the field for another season.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

Yikes, there are bad predictions and then there are my preseason efforts.  Before his untimely death mid-season, Chris Henry really wasn’t a major piece of the puzzle in Cincy (see Palmer, Carson).

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4^th round? … yes please!

A nice season for Colston overall, though he fell short of my lofty goals for him posting 70 catches for 1,074 yards and 9 TDs.  Though still Drew Brees’ favorite target, other threats kept Colston’s production in check.

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

Were it not for the breakout campaign of Percy Harvin, Nicks would have been the most productive rookie WR.  As it was he came on strong late in the season, earning a starting spot and finishing with 790 yards and 6 TDs.

9.  Speaking of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

As expected, Sanchez’s rookie season was a roller coaster ride.  He was brilliant at times and horrendous at times, but thanks to a terrific NY ground attack he had some protection on his way to 15 total TDs.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

Can we just move along? … there are only so many times you can say you’re sorry before it starts to lose meaning, after all.  Not-so-fast Willie Parker was leap-frogged on the depth chart and totaled only 453 yards and 1 TD.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

One of my few pieces of advice that worked out for owners this year, I myself grabbed Grant in the mid-rounds of a draft and was rewarded with his 1,253 rushing yards and 11 TDs … can’t beat that value.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

Tough season for the former Mountaineer … Slaton was in and out of coach Gary Kubiak’s doghouse for fumbling and despite a nice mid-season stretch finished with just 854 total yards and may have lost his starting gig.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

Garbage, thy name is Clinton Portis … I have been a big fan of Portis since he came into the league but he is a lot less entertaining when his play isn’t backing up his antics.  An uninspiring 494 yards and 1 TD before going on IR.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

When you’ve been wrong as many times as I was, the victories seem that much sweeter … V-Jax finished up the season with 68 catches for 1,167 yards and 9 TDs.  He also made some of the best catches of 2009.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20^th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

Now we’re talking … Vernon Davis was the monster we all envisioned several years ago when he was coming out of Maryland.  The centerpiece of the 49ers passing attack finished with 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

Once again, you’re welcome.  Amazing that a guy that snared 11 TDs can fly under the radar but with Sydney Rice’s breakout campaign and Percy Harvin working out of the slot, Shiancoe was Brett Favre’s red zone BFF.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

The jury is still out on Coffee (huge preseason, invisible regular season), but Bradshaw and Stewart proved their worth by out-performing their starting counterparts.  Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list as well.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

Somewhere along the way coach Mike Singletary must have sold his soul (somewhere Mike Martz is cackling) … The 49ers went to a spread attack mid-season and Gore’s numbers suffered.  Still, he ran up 1,526 yards and 13 TDs.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

Gong!!! … Moreno was what I expected him to be, a decent chain-mover without a ton of big-play ability.  Still, if the Broncos lean more heavily on the youngster in the future, he could improve on his 947 yards and 7 TDs

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

Well, Roy Williams did not command much respect but thankfully for Witten owners Miles Austin arrived in a big way.  The reliable tight end improved on his catches (94) and receiving yards (1,030) but racked up just 2 TDs.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

CJ – Steven Jackson – Barber – Hightower – Lynch is what I meant … but with AP, MJD, Ray Rice, Thomas Jones, and Frank Gore taking 5 of the top 6 spots, the power of the fade is evident.  CJ owners, now is the time to sell high.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

Tough to call a season in which he caught 97 passes for 1,092 yards and 13 TDs a disappointment, but Fitz’s numbers fell off a bit this season.  That said, if Leinart is running the show next year they could slip even further.

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

The kid is legit as a dual threat, runs tough between the tackles and is deadly in space.  I undersold him as a top-15 back … Rice finished #4 behind CJ, AP and MJD and totalled 2,041 total yards, 78 catches and 8 TDs.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

Nope … not close.  The Chargers were crippled early with the loss of all-world DT Jamal Williams.  A less-than-healthy Shawne Merriman also resulted in a less-than-consistent pass rush which kills a fantasy D.

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

Ah, I was wondering where all those destructive injuries had gone.  Leon started off the season as his dynamic self, but his landing on IR opened the door for rookie Shonn Greene to prove his worth, especially this postseason.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

True and true … a good predication but not overly useful to fantasy owners.  The pathetic excuse for a running game in Philly ties any RB’s value to their receptions.  I like McCoy going forward, but the Eagles can be tough to watch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

MoJo was very reliable in his first season as the starter in Jacksonville.  That said, if they don’t get him some help on offense expect to see his YPC averages slip as the season wears on.  I’ll take the 1,765 total yards and 16 TDs, though.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

Didn’t happen … and as a result the 49ers will head into another season not sure if they have a true franchise QB on their roster.  I don’t see Alex Smith’s ceiling being much higher than we saw this year, Davis deserves a shot.

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

(Patting self on back) … Denver – 947, New England – 757, Tampa Bay – 821, Cleveland – 862 … Those are the high totals for RBs on those teams.  That said, things look brighter in Denver (Moreno) and Cleveland (Harrison).

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

(Slapping self in face) … Serves me right for reaching far enough to include LJ in my predictions … And by the way, the most talented player on the Chiefs roster was Jamaal Charles … Can we just agree to forget about this one?

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