NCAA DirecTV ESPN GamePlan Free Picks: Week 10
October 31, 2008 by luckylester · Leave a Comment
West Virginia Mountaineers @ Connecticut Huskies (+4): Tough call, I want to go with the Mountaineers, here hoping that they caught their stride and are ready to ride Pat White to numerous victories down the stretch, taking the Big East title as they go. The Public seems to think this, at least against UCONN this week anyway. I know the Huskies have quarterback questions heading into this game, but at home as a 4 point dog against a mediocre WV team that can definitely play up and down based on their opponent, I’ll take the Huskies.
Miami Hurricanes @ Virginia Cavaliers (-2): This game is another tough one for me. I’d like to think that Miami’s athletes alone would give Virginia trouble, not in the same boat but maybe in the same ocean as USC earlier this season. But my gut has me going with the Cavs here. They do lots of things well and most importantly have been finding ways to win in the ACC. Aside from USC, the Cavaliers haven’t lost at home. Miami can play really well and really poor, you never quite know what you’re going to get with them. I know the Cavs will come to play here.
Auburn Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels (-6): The Rebels have only lost to good teams. The Tigers aren’t good. I’ll take them by a touchdown over a lost Auburn team.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (-2): I like the Kentucky team that played close with Alabama, losing by three, and played another tight game with South Carolina the week after Bama. Since then the Wildcats have key players out for the year, some more out for this game, and numerous other’s that are questionable and or and playing hurt. I’ll take the Bulldogs against half of Kentucky’s squad.
Florida State Seminoles (+2.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: I took the Seminoles, but I seem to be the only one doing so – there’s my warning. 8 “Covers Experts” are siding with the Yellow Jackets in this one, but I see a Seminole team, that despite the injuries has found a way to win over the last few weeks. I guess I rate that will higher than others do – we’ll see.
Iowa State Cyclones (+30.5) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys: I don’t know. I see that Oklahoma State is nearly unbeatable, and if it weren’t for a Heismann front runner from Texas they’d probably be undefeated headed into this game with a pretty bad Iowa State group. But the Cyclones are known for playing good teams tough, and 30+ underdogs here look good to me.
North Texas Mean Green (+17) @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: North Texas has yet to win and has lost only one game by less than 20 points. But I like the Mean Green to cover here. Despite losses and points and all that business, North Texas and Western Kentucky are pretty similar in talent and ability. This game should be closer than 17.
Tulane @ Louisiana State (-26.5): LSU put up 38 on Georgia. Tulane has been beat by 27+ in two of the last three weeks, Rice and Army. Tulane has been battling injuries the last few weeks. On the other hand, most “experts” are taking Tulane in this one. I like a 31-0 shutout or something of that sort. On the other hand, LSU has only two wins by more than 26.5 all season long, North Texas and sub division stud App. State. Interesting. I’ll still take LSU.
Five for Friday
October 31, 2008 by luckylester · 1 Comment
You have the feeling?
Is it a gut feeling or a stupid feeling? Maybe both?
Well, if you need some help starting or choosing a starter between two guys, I’m the one to help you out. This week I have 5 examples of reader emails that ask who would I rather start – these are my answers.
1. Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler: Wow, that’s a tough one there but I’m going with Schaub. I don’t think the Broncos will have to score as much to win their game, and with Ryan Torrain in the game (or so I am fooled to believe he’ll be starting) I think Cutler will throw less. That being said, they are both great options with great physical receivers, can’t really lose here.
2. Matt Forte or Chris Johnson: PPR this is an easy Matt Forte answer, even without PPR to help me out with 5 catches for Matt, I think I’m rocking Forte against the Lions. Clinton Portis put up a ton of yards against Detroit last week and he didn’t even play the whole time. Forte is the Bears rushing attack, and while Chris Johnson has a nice match-up against a suddenly porous Packer defense, he also has LenDale White thieving carries – Forte is all by himself in Detroit.
3. Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall (I can start 2): I’m going with Andre and Brandon because they play mediocre to bad secondaries and they have studs throwing them the ball. Dan Orlovsky isn’t my favorite QB to be throwing the ball to my WR. That being said, I like Calvin this week too.
4. Julius Jones, Cedric Benson, Jerious Norwood: Norwood and it isn’t really that close. PPR of course. If not, I guess I’d roll with Benson, though I wouldn’t like it. I think Norwood gets at least 4 catches and 6-10 carries against the Raiders – here breaks on and he’s well worth your time, even as a guaranteed back-up plan.
5. Steve Slaton or Jamal Lewis: Jamal has been pretty good against the Ravens and Slaton is going to be busting his ace for 4 yards a carry against the Vikings defense. That being said I still think Slaton attacks the Vikings in the air a bit, and he’s pretty quick so he might do alright on the ground. I don’t see Jamal having much of a day against this particular Baltimore defense.
Good luck penguins!
theRUNDOWN: Week 9
October 31, 2008 by luckylester · Leave a Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Just in case you didn’t catch it, this is my RUNDOWN for Week 8…
QB: Matt Schaub vs. Minnesota: Maybe I’m a little edgy for taking Schaub (and his Texans) to do good work on the road against a team coming off a bye. My guess, Minnesota didn’t fix their terrible secondary over a bye week.
RB: Matt Forte vs. Detroit: Clinton Portis killed the Lions in limited action – I expect Detroit to be a little better, but Matt is a big time focus of the Lions offense – I can’t imagine him getting less than 20 fantasy points this week.
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Kansas City: Thomas Jones was the guy hurt most by the Jets willingness to throw interceptions last week, well, I think Earnest Graham does work against the Chiefs in Week 9. Warrick Dunn is likely out for this contest, leaving Graham to snag all the carries.
FLEX: Brandon Marshall vs. Miami: The Dolphins are solid run stuffers, and their secondary is porous. Marshall hasn’t gone off in a while now, and I expect that to change in a hurry.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. St. Louis: Anquan Boldin has been catching all the touchdowns, but I get a feeling that Fitz will be the high scorer for the Cards this week.
WR: Andre Johnson vs. Minnesota: Honestly, I’d take Johnson against any defense in the league. That being said, I get a little smile when I see MInnesota on the schedule. All Andre needs to do is score, he has only two on the season.
TE: Zach Miller vs. Atlanta: A big sure handed TE is a quarterback’s best friend. In PPR leagues I think Miller has a really nice day against the Falcons secondary.
K: Matt Prater vs. Miami: IN Denver against a defense that isn’t good enough to shut down the Broncos, but isn’t bad enough to allow touchdowns on every drive, I think Prater gets his leg going.
D: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle: The Eagles can really get after the quarterback, they have 3 talented corners, (very talented), and they have playmaking safeties. They should eat up the Seagulls.
PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS
David Garrad: This time Garrard gets Cincinnati and I think he has a decent day, he’s not my favorite sleeper, but he’s worth a shot.
Chad Pennington: I know it’s a bye week happy stat, but just one quarterback over the past 4 weeks has thrown for more yards than Pennington (Brees I think) – I know that sounds crazy, but Chad has been putting up close to 300 or more every week. This week is Denver sans Champ Bailey – yhatzee!!!
Maurice Jones Drew: Big week for MJD.
Justin Fargas: Not only has Fargas been the best back in Oakland, but this week he’ll likely go at the Atlanta Falcons without Darren McFadden stealing his touches. I like my chances on picking up Fargas and starting him.
Donnie Avery: This may be a duh call, but Avery goes up against a Cardinals secondary that can really give up the deep ball – he’s bee good lately, and Arizona can stop the run enough to force the pass – and force it the Rams will.
Chad Johnson: It’s been a tough year when Chad Johnson has been relegated to Sleeper status. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be getting a little more comfortable and Chad could always have a huge day. He’s no sure thing, but against a mediocre Jags secondary, I think Chad has a solid day. 80 yards and a score for his best day of the year?
Greg Olsen: Greg goes up against the Lions. He’s talented and a tough match-up for a slow secondary. Seems like a good play to me.
New England Patriots: This may be a long shot, but the Colts have no running attack, that allows Coach Bill to scheme against one thing, the pass. They may be hurting, but I like the Pats to get to Manning and produce a few turnovers.
Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Big Ben Roethlisberger: This guy is bound to get hurt with the way teams hit him – he’s a questionable play the rest of the season in my mind – I think Washington gets to him a few times here.
Ryan Grant: Those who know me know I dig Ryan Grant, but the cat has been struggling with lots of carries and minimal yards against pretty pathetic defenses. These are the Titans, and in greek mythology the Titans were even greater than the gods…
Edgerrin James: For eternity folks, bench him that long. I’ve been one of his biggest fans, but there’s a time when you have to let go, when he’s still a strong bench him candidate against the Rams, now’s that time.
Terrell Owens: TO has the ability to go off anytime – he historically eats up the Giants – all that means little to me right now because I’m benching TO this week.
Three for Thursday
October 31, 2008 by luckylester · Leave a Comment
Okay, in just a second I have three teams (with player sets) that you might want to trade off or stay away from because of their tough schedules moving forward. But first, here this…
I forgot the Broncos yesterday – they have one decent secondary for the rest of the season (Carolina in Week 16) – aside from the Panthers, Denver plays Cleveland, Atlanta, Oakland, the Jets, Kansas City, Buffalo, and San Diego. Not that Brandon Marshall wasn’t a great option before, but how does he look now? With Tony Scheffler coming back and Eddie Royal completely healthy, and a possible starting option at running back (Ryan Torrain) coming into the mix, I think the Broncos passing attack looks scary as ever. Scheffler and Torrain might be on waivers right now, if that’s the case, rock out and pick them up.
Okay, now for some tough schedules you may want to avoid…
Cincinnati Bengals: As if the situation in Cinci could get any worse, they have a brutal schedule moving forward. Talk about tough, after this week against Jacksonville, the Bengals have a bye. Then it’s a place where two star receivers go to die – that’s right, they play the Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, and Colts – all top ranked pass defenses. Redskins, Browns, and Chiefs, to finish the season, but it gets a heck of a lot worse before it gets better. If there’s any value out there for Housh, Chad Johnson, or (well that’s it I guess) – I would make good and see them off.
The Browns are in the same division as the Bengals, and it looks like their schedule has some big time tough ones as well. Lucky for you guys, the Browns also play the Broncos, Texans, Colts (Jamal Lewis owners anyway), and Bengals. Who else do they play? Well it starts this weekend against the Ravens, and the Bills, and the Titans, and the Eagles, and they end the season with the Steelers. This years’ Saints could end up looking a lot like last years’ Saints, without all those late season offensive numbers – yeah, uh oh.
The 49ers also have a little bit of an interesting go. Aside from the Rams twice, San Francisco doesn’t have another great match-up for Frank Gore owners. The Cardinals, Cowboys, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins are all solid if not very good run defenses. I know Frank Gore can do good work against anyone (except the Giants – 11 rushes for 11 yards, also 3 grabs for 50) – but his first half was riddled with Seahawks (twice), Lions, Saints, Patriots – he’s got some tough ones down the stretch. Still, I’d keep him unless you get good value for him, which you probably can considering the goods he’s put up so far this season.
